aapl.

AAPL 2025-06-24

Created on

Symbol

AAPL

User Message

I ordered to sell 5 contracts (500 shares) of AAPL puts expire in a month on July 25. The strike price is 180.

Financial Report

----Earnings Data Summary for AAPL as of 2025-06-24----

Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.65

Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.63

Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-05-01

Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-03-31

Historical EPS (last 8 quarters):

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2024-12-31 | 2.4 |

| 2024-09-30 | 1.64 |

| 2024-06-30 | 1.4 |

| 2024-03-31 | 1.53 |

| 2023-12-31 | 2.18 |

| 2023-09-30 | 1.46 |

| 2023-06-30 | 1.26 |

| 2023-03-31 | 1.52 |

Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.67

In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.

Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.4

Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.26

Upcoming earnings date: 2025-07-23

----Valuation Data Summary for AAPL as of 2025-06-24----

Current P/E for AAPL: 28.42

1 year P/E range: 31.29 - 35.84

2 years P/E range: 26.28 - 35.84

5 years P/E range: 21.78 - 35.84

Symbols of peer companies within the same sector: ['META', 'GOOGL', 'DELL', 'NTAP', 'GOOG', 'PSTG', 'AMZN', 'MSFT', 'TSLA', 'SMCI', 'HPE', 'NFLX', 'WDC', 'NVDA', 'IONQ', 'HPQ', 'DIS']

Average P/E for these peer companies: 40.31

----Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q2 earnings call----:

The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:

The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.

The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.

0.5 is neutral.

| Title | Sentiment Score |

|--------|---------------|

| CEO | 0.59 |

| CFO | 0.50 |

Technical Report

----Stock performance for AAPL----

AAPL performance in the past 5 days: 1.55%

AAPL performance in the past 30 days: 1.63%

AAPL performance in the past 90 days: -14.82%

AAPL performance in the past 200 days: -8.44%

----Sector peers performance for AAPL----

META performance in the past 5 days: -0.51%

META performance in the past 30 days: 17.99%

META performance in the past 90 days: -3.54%

META performance in the past 200 days: 36.7%

GOOGL performance in the past 5 days: -6.55%

GOOGL performance in the past 30 days: 8.27%

GOOGL performance in the past 90 days: -9.82%

GOOGL performance in the past 200 days: 6.1%

DELL performance in the past 5 days: 3.76%

DELL performance in the past 30 days: 23.05%

DELL performance in the past 90 days: 5.19%

DELL performance in the past 200 days: 9.73%

NTAP performance in the past 5 days: 0.07%

NTAP performance in the past 30 days: 11.58%

NTAP performance in the past 90 days: -10.99%

NTAP performance in the past 200 days: -11.1%

GOOG performance in the past 5 days: -6.7%

GOOG performance in the past 30 days: 7.66%

GOOG performance in the past 90 days: -10.26%

GOOG performance in the past 200 days: 5.7%

PSTG performance in the past 5 days: 3.06%

PSTG performance in the past 30 days: 9.34%

PSTG performance in the past 90 days: -20.82%

PSTG performance in the past 200 days: 12.37%

AMZN performance in the past 5 days: -3.53%

AMZN performance in the past 30 days: 7.98%

AMZN performance in the past 90 days: -8.94%

AMZN performance in the past 200 days: 20.27%

MSFT performance in the past 5 days: 1.43%

MSFT performance in the past 30 days: 10.98%

MSFT performance in the past 90 days: 19.27%

MSFT performance in the past 200 days: 19.55%

TSLA performance in the past 5 days: 5.94%

TSLA performance in the past 30 days: 16.9%

TSLA performance in the past 90 days: 3.62%

TSLA performance in the past 200 days: 58.92%

SMCI performance in the past 5 days: -6.41%

SMCI performance in the past 30 days: 27.82%

SMCI performance in the past 90 days: 3.05%

SMCI performance in the past 200 days: -3.44%

HPE performance in the past 5 days: -1.64%

HPE performance in the past 30 days: 6.22%

HPE performance in the past 90 days: -14.25%

HPE performance in the past 200 days: -2.35%

NFLX performance in the past 5 days: 2.3%

NFLX performance in the past 30 days: 9.94%

NFLX performance in the past 90 days: 22.02%

NFLX performance in the past 200 days: 84.43%

WDC performance in the past 5 days: 5.17%

WDC performance in the past 30 days: 37.17%

WDC performance in the past 90 days: 18.95%

WDC performance in the past 200 days: 27.14%

NVDA performance in the past 5 days: -0.36%

NVDA performance in the past 30 days: 23.6%

NVDA performance in the past 90 days: 9.95%

NVDA performance in the past 200 days: 35.78%

IONQ performance in the past 5 days: 7.05%

IONQ performance in the past 30 days: 31.56%

IONQ performance in the past 90 days: 8.26%

IONQ performance in the past 200 days: 486.88%

HPQ performance in the past 5 days: -2.49%

HPQ performance in the past 30 days: -8.6%

HPQ performance in the past 90 days: -26.06%

HPQ performance in the past 200 days: -29.7%

DIS performance in the past 5 days: -1.45%

DIS performance in the past 30 days: 11.15%

DIS performance in the past 90 days: 7.8%

DIS performance in the past 200 days: 32.52%

----Mag 7 performance as a reference----

GOOG performance in the past 5 days: -6.7%

GOOG performance in the past 30 days: 7.66%

GOOG performance in the past 90 days: -10.26%

GOOG performance in the past 200 days: 5.7%

GOOGL performance in the past 5 days: -6.55%

GOOGL performance in the past 30 days: 8.27%

GOOGL performance in the past 90 days: -9.82%

GOOGL performance in the past 200 days: 6.1%

AMZN performance in the past 5 days: -3.53%

AMZN performance in the past 30 days: 7.98%

AMZN performance in the past 90 days: -8.94%

AMZN performance in the past 200 days: 20.27%

AAPL performance in the past 5 days: 1.55%

AAPL performance in the past 30 days: 1.63%

AAPL performance in the past 90 days: -14.82%

AAPL performance in the past 200 days: -8.44%

MSFT performance in the past 5 days: 1.43%

MSFT performance in the past 30 days: 10.98%

MSFT performance in the past 90 days: 19.27%

MSFT performance in the past 200 days: 19.55%

META performance in the past 5 days: -0.51%

META performance in the past 30 days: 17.99%

META performance in the past 90 days: -3.54%

META performance in the past 200 days: 36.7%

NVDA performance in the past 5 days: -0.36%

NVDA performance in the past 30 days: 23.6%

NVDA performance in the past 90 days: 9.95%

NVDA performance in the past 200 days: 35.78%

TSLA performance in the past 5 days: 5.94%

TSLA performance in the past 30 days: 16.9%

TSLA performance in the past 90 days: 3.62%

TSLA performance in the past 200 days: 58.92%

----Technical Indicators Summary for AAPL as of 2025-06-24----

MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:

| Date | histogram | macd | signal |

|--------|---------|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-23 | 0.15 | -1.42 | -1.57 |

| 2025-06-20 | -0.11 | -1.72 | -1.61 |

| 2025-06-18 | -0.44 | -2.01 | -1.58 |

| 2025-06-17 | -0.45 | -1.92 | -1.47 |

| 2025-06-16 | -0.31 | -1.67 | -1.36 |

| 2025-06-13 | -0.33 | -1.61 | -1.28 |

| 2025-06-12 | -0.11 | -1.31 | -1.20 |

| 2025-06-11 | -0.02 | -1.19 | -1.17 |

| 2025-06-10 | 0.18 | -0.98 | -1.16 |

| 2025-06-09 | 0.12 | -1.09 | -1.21 |

EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-23 | 204.36 |

| 2025-06-20 | 204.47 |

| 2025-06-18 | 204.61 |

| 2025-06-17 | 204.94 |

| 2025-06-16 | 205.32 |

| 2025-06-13 | 205.60 |

| 2025-06-12 | 205.98 |

| 2025-06-11 | 206.25 |

| 2025-06-10 | 206.56 |

| 2025-06-09 | 206.72 |

EMA values for AAPL with a window of 200 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-23 | 214.82 |

| 2025-06-20 | 214.95 |

| 2025-06-18 | 215.09 |

| 2025-06-17 | 215.28 |

| 2025-06-16 | 215.48 |

| 2025-06-13 | 215.65 |

| 2025-06-12 | 215.84 |

| 2025-06-11 | 216.01 |

| 2025-06-10 | 216.18 |

| 2025-06-09 | 216.32 |

RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-23 | 50.25 |

| 2025-06-20 | 49.48 |

| 2025-06-18 | 42.14 |

| 2025-06-17 | 40.43 |

| 2025-06-16 | 44.00 |

| 2025-06-13 | 40.55 |

| 2025-06-12 | 44.07 |

| 2025-06-11 | 43.37 |

| 2025-06-10 | 48.59 |

| 2025-06-09 | 46.72 |

Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 20 days:

Latest MFI: 48.17

| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |

|--------|--------|----------------|-------------|

| 2025-06-23 | 48.17 | 0.93 | 200.92 |

| 2025-06-20 | 43.42 | 0.77 | 199.85 |

| 2025-06-18 | 35.70 | 0.56 | 196.41 |

| 2025-06-17 | 35.72 | 0.56 | 196.41 |

| 2025-06-16 | 35.39 | 0.55 | 197.89 |

| 2025-06-13 | 30.92 | 0.45 | 197.51 |

| 2025-06-12 | 31.02 | 0.45 | 198.75 |

| 2025-06-11 | 35.62 | 0.55 | 200.56 |

| 2025-06-10 | 40.96 | 0.69 | 202.53 |

| 2025-06-09 | 41.58 | 0.71 | 202.49 |

| 2025-06-06 | 46.54 | 0.87 | 203.89 |

| 2025-06-05 | 46.65 | 0.87 | 201.84 |

| 2025-06-04 | 46.14 | 0.86 | 203.72 |

| 2025-06-03 | 41.70 | 0.72 | 202.67 |

| 2025-06-02 | 36.53 | 0.58 | 201.32 |

| 2025-05-30 | 31.31 | 0.46 | 199.86 |

| 2025-05-29 | 36.89 | 0.58 | 200.76 |

| 2025-05-28 | 41.57 | 0.71 | 201.02 |

| 2025-05-27 | 41.22 | 0.70 | 199.46 |

| 2025-05-23 | 40.41 | 0.68 | 195.48 |

| 2025-05-22 | 43.36 | 0.77 | 201.27 |

Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days

Number of Standard Deviations: 2

Latest Close: 201.5

Latest SMA: 200.04

Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 194.99

Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 205.08

Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:

Last 30 days average volume: 52960053.33

Today's volume: 55595500

Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.05

Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 200.44

Support levels for AAPL in the last 200 days:

Last Low: 168.99 on 2025-04-08

Last High: 214.28 on 2025-05-01

Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 203.59, 38.2%: 196.98, 50.0%: 191.63, 61.8%: 186.29, 78.6%: 178.68

Resonance Supports: No resonance supports —— fib support levels are not within ±3% range of the recent low.

Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:

| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |

|-----------|----------------|-------------|--------------|

| 2025-05-30 | 54577495 | 1.74 | 94828443 |

| 2025-05-15 | 58066315 | 1.81 | 105169332 |

| 2025-04-30 | 47359185 | 2.29 | 108598767 |

| 2025-04-15 | 101632881 | 1.11 | 113127198 |

| 2025-03-31 | 48844478 | 2.30 | 112333139 |

| 2025-03-14 | 56586843 | 2.29 | 129678474 |

| 2025-02-28 | 44925361 | 2.99 | 134441154 |

| 2025-02-14 | 45049013 | 2.84 | 127893856 |

| 2025-01-31 | 71221819 | 1.75 | 124917523 |

| 2025-01-15 | 45239163 | 2.99 | 135189465 |

Close Price as of 2025-06-24: 201.50

Economics Report

----Economics Summary as of 2025-06-24----

----FED Data for Producer Price Index----

Latest Value: 259.03 on 2025-05-01

A 1.46% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A 2.11% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A 37.34% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate----

Latest Value: 4.33 on 2025-05-01

A -18.76% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A -14.43% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A 8560.0% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----FED Data for M2 Money Stock----

Latest Value: 21862.5 on 2025-04-01

A 4.44% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-04-01

A 5.46% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-04-01

A 28.56% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-04-01

----FED Data for CPI, US City Average----

Latest Value: 320.58 on 2025-05-01

A 2.38% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A 5.69% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A 25.32% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----FED Data for Unemployment Rate----

Latest Value: 4.2 on 2025-05-01

A 5.0% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A 16.67% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A -68.18% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----FED Data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis----

Latest Value: 4.38 on 2025-06-20

A 0.23% change compared to 1 year ago on 2025-06-04

A -1.79% change compared to 2 years ago on 2025-05-19

A 2.58% change compared to 5 years ago on 2025-03-28

----FED Data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States----

Latest Value: 2.95 on 2024-01-01

----FED Data for M1 Money Stock----

Latest Value: 18668.0 on 2025-04-01

A 3.86% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-04-01

A 0.28% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-04-01

A 288.57% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-04-01

----FED Data for Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks----

Latest Value: 3.05 on 2025-01-01

A 80.47% change compared to 1 year ago on 2022-01-01

A 20.08% change compared to 2 years ago on 2019-01-01

----FED Data for Federal Debt, Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product----

Latest Value: 120.81 on 2025-01-01

A 0.2% change compared to 1 year ago on 2022-01-01

A 15.78% change compared to 2 years ago on 2019-01-01

----FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate----

Latest Value: 62.4 on 2025-05-01

A -0.32% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A -0.32% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A 2.63% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----FED Data for Personal Savings Rate----

Latest Value: 4.9 on 2025-04-01

A -3.92% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-04-01

A -2.0% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-04-01

A -84.69% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-04-01

----FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls----

Latest Value: 159561.0 on 2025-05-01

A 1.1% change compared to 1 year ago on 2024-05-01

A 2.54% change compared to 2 years ago on 2023-05-01

A 19.93% change compared to 5 years ago on 2020-05-01

----Mag 7 performance as a reference----

GOOG performance in the past 5 days: -6.7%

GOOG performance in the past 30 days: 7.66%

GOOG performance in the past 90 days: -10.26%

GOOG performance in the past 200 days: 5.7%

GOOGL performance in the past 5 days: -6.55%

GOOGL performance in the past 30 days: 8.27%

GOOGL performance in the past 90 days: -9.82%

GOOGL performance in the past 200 days: 6.1%

AMZN performance in the past 5 days: -3.53%

AMZN performance in the past 30 days: 7.98%

AMZN performance in the past 90 days: -8.94%

AMZN performance in the past 200 days: 20.27%

AAPL performance in the past 5 days: 1.55%

AAPL performance in the past 30 days: 1.63%

AAPL performance in the past 90 days: -14.82%

AAPL performance in the past 200 days: -8.44%

MSFT performance in the past 5 days: 1.43%

MSFT performance in the past 30 days: 10.98%

MSFT performance in the past 90 days: 19.27%

MSFT performance in the past 200 days: 19.55%

META performance in the past 5 days: -0.51%

META performance in the past 30 days: 17.99%

META performance in the past 90 days: -3.54%

META performance in the past 200 days: 36.7%

NVDA performance in the past 5 days: -0.36%

NVDA performance in the past 30 days: 23.6%

NVDA performance in the past 90 days: 9.95%

NVDA performance in the past 200 days: 35.78%

TSLA performance in the past 5 days: 5.94%

TSLA performance in the past 30 days: 16.9%

TSLA performance in the past 90 days: 3.62%

TSLA performance in the past 200 days: 58.92%

Mag 7 earning dates:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| GOOG | 2025-07-21 |

| GOOGL | 2025-07-21 |

| AMZN | 2025-07-30 |

| AAPL | 2025-07-23 |

| MSFT | 2025-07-28 |

| META | 2025-07-23 |

| NVDA | 2025-08-27 |

| TSLA | 2025-07-21 |

Next FOMC meeting date: 2025-07-29

Hedging Tools

----Hedging Tools----

----VIX Summary as of 2025-06-24----

Current VIX: 19.83, VIX percentile in the past 252 days: 64.33%

Z-score (5 days): -0.71

Z-score (20 days): 0.62

VIX9D: 17.92

VIX9D > VIX: False

---VIXY Performance Summary----

Current VIXY: 51.41, VIXY percentile in the past 90 days: 33.33%

5D % Change: 3.21

5D Volatility (%): 4.42

RSI (14): 48.5

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.1

---UVXY Performance Summary----

Current UVXY: 21.6, UVXY percentile in the past 90 days: 21.67%

5D % Change: 3.9

5D Volatility (%): 6.24

RSI (14): 47.83

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.34

----SQQQ Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 1.37

5D Volatility (%): 2.7

RSI (14): 41.56

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.24

5D Correlation with QQQ: -1.0

----PSQ Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 0.51

5D Volatility (%): 0.93

RSI (14): 42.9

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.36

5D Correlation with QQQ: -1.0

----QID Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 0.92

5D Volatility (%): 1.82

RSI (14): 41.94

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.32

5D Correlation with QQQ: -1.0

----SH Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 0.27

5D Volatility (%): 0.73

RSI (14): 42.68

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.42

5D Correlation with SPY: -1.0

----SDS Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 0.45

5D Volatility (%): 1.44

RSI (14): 41.67

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.34

5D Correlation with SPY: -1.0

----SPXU Performance Summary----

5D % Change: 0.6

5D Volatility (%): 2.22

RSI (14): 41.23

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.5

5D Correlation with SPY: -1.0

----DOG Performance Summary----

5D % Change: -0.08

5D Volatility (%): 0.61

RSI (14): 47.09

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.05

5D Correlation with ^DJI: -1.0

Final Report

Recommendation: Neutral (Hold/Cautious)

Reasoning:

Financial Health:

  • Earnings: AAPL has consistently met or exceeded earnings estimates in the last 8 quarters, with an average EPS of 1.67. The most recent EPS (1.65) slightly beat consensus (1.63).

  • Valuation: Current P/E (28.42) is below the 1-year range (31.29–35.84) and sector peers' average (40.31), suggesting relative undervaluation.

  • Upcoming Catalyst: Earnings on July 23 (before your put expiration on July 25), which could introduce volatility.

  • Management Sentiment: Neutral-to-slightly-positive (CEO sentiment: 0.59, CFO: 0.50).

Technical Indicators:

  • Trend: AAPL is underperforming peers (-14.82% over 90d vs. Mag7 avg. +3.6%).

  • MACD: Negative but improving (histogram turning less negative).

  • RSI: 50.25 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signal).

  • Support Levels:

  • Fibonacci 38.2%: $196.98

  • Recent Low: $168.99 (April 2025)

  • Bollinger Lower Band: $194.99

  • Volume: Slightly above 30-day average (1.05x), no extreme spikes.

News Sentiment:

  • 6/10 articles positive, highlighting AI growth, strong ecosystem, and undervaluation.

  • 2/10 negative, citing lawsuits over AI-based Siri features and Buffett trimming holdings.

Additional Context:

  • You sold 5x AAPL $180 puts expiring July 25 (obligation to buy 500 shares at $180 if assigned).

  • Current price ($201.50) is 11.9% above strike, providing a 12.6% buffer before breakeven.


Strategy to Minimize Risk:

1. Capital Allocation & Entry/Exit:

  • If Assigned (AAPL ≤ $180):

  • Allocate 100% capital to buy 500 shares at $180 (cost basis).

  • Stop-Loss: $168.99 (-6.1% below strike; aligns with April low).

  • Profit Target: $203.59 (Fibonacci 23.6% resistance, +13.1% from $180).

2. Hedging Measures:

  • VIX Hedge: VIX is at 64th percentile (elevated); no urgent need for long-volatility hedges.

  • Inverse ETF Hedge: Allocate 5–10% to SQQQ (if tech sector weakens further).

  • Alternative Hedge: Buy July 25 $185 puts (~$2.50 premium) to limit downside below $180.

3. Earnings Volatility Management:

  • Pre-Earnings (July 23):

  • Close puts if AAPL drops near $190–195 (lock in premium, avoid assignment risk).

  • If holding through earnings, set a stop-limit order at $175 (below strike).

4. Profit Targets:

  • Short-Term (If Unassigned): Keep premium as profit (max gain).

  • Long-Term (If Assigned): Hold shares with a $203.59 target (sell covered calls at $205 strike).

5. Time Horizon:

  • Short-Term: Until July 25 expiry (earnings-driven).

  • Long-Term: If assigned, hold for 3–6 months (AAPL’s P/E discount to peers could narrow).


Final Notes:

  • Watch Earnings Closely: AAPL’s guidance will dictate near-term momentum.

  • Tariff Risks: Negative news on China tariffs could pressure shares.

  • Peer Comparison: AAPL lags NVDA, META, MSFT—sector rotation could delay rebound.

Action: Hold puts for now, but prepare to hedge or exit if AAPL nears $190 pre-earnings.