AAPL 2025-12-23
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for AAPL as of 2025-12-23
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.85
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.76
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-30
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.65
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.4
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.97
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-28
Valuation Data Summary for AAPL as of 2025-12-23
Current P/E for AAPL: 34.03
1 year P/E range: 30.45 - 39.85
2 years P/E range: 26.45 - 39.85
5 years P/E range: 21.73 - 39.85
Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.10 |
| CEO | 0.57 |
| CFO | 0.42 |
Insider transactions for AAPL in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | -3.8K | $271.23 | Sell | 15.1K |
| 2025-10-16 | -4.2K | $247.39 | Sell | 41.3K |
| 2025-10-02 | -220.1K | $256.92 | Sell | 14.5M |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for AAPL
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 274.48
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 266.95
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 273.81
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 270.9
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 270.96
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 266.86
Price Range for AAPL
AAPL current price: $270.97
5-Day Range: $266.95 - $276.16
50-Day Range: $244.46 - $288.62
200-Day Range: $168.63 - $288.62
Technical Indicators Summary for AAPL as of 2025-12-23
MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 1.00 | 2.41 | -1.41 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1.25 | 2.76 | -1.51 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1.70 | 3.13 | -1.43 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2.29 | 3.49 | -1.20 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2.73 | 3.79 | -1.06 |
| 2025-12-12 | 3.30 | 4.06 | -0.76 |
| 2025-12-11 | 3.55 | 4.25 | -0.70 |
| 2025-12-10 | 3.84 | 4.42 | -0.58 |
| 2025-12-09 | 4.09 | 4.56 | -0.47 |
| 2025-12-08 | 4.51 | 4.68 | -0.18 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 268.57 |
| 2025-12-18 | 268.37 |
| 2025-12-17 | 268.21 |
| 2025-12-16 | 268.06 |
| 2025-12-15 | 267.79 |
| 2025-12-12 | 267.54 |
| 2025-12-11 | 267.10 |
| 2025-12-10 | 266.65 |
| 2025-12-09 | 266.16 |
| 2025-12-08 | 265.71 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 241.98 |
| 2025-12-18 | 241.66 |
| 2025-12-17 | 241.35 |
| 2025-12-16 | 241.05 |
| 2025-12-15 | 240.71 |
| 2025-12-12 | 240.37 |
| 2025-12-11 | 239.99 |
| 2025-12-10 | 239.61 |
| 2025-12-09 | 239.22 |
| 2025-12-08 | 238.83 |
RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 48.86 |
| 2025-12-18 | 45.76 |
| 2025-12-17 | 45.02 |
| 2025-12-16 | 49.99 |
| 2025-12-15 | 49.05 |
| 2025-12-12 | 57.43 |
| 2025-12-11 | 57.02 |
| 2025-12-10 | 58.59 |
| 2025-12-09 | 56.21 |
| 2025-12-08 | 57.57 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 49.1
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 271.79 | 0.96 | 49.10 |
| 2025-12-19 | 272.72 | 0.96 | 48.88 |
| 2025-12-18 | 270.92 | 0.34 | 25.55 |
| 2025-12-17 | 273.21 | 0.35 | 25.91 |
| 2025-12-16 | 273.97 | 0.36 | 26.21 |
| 2025-12-15 | 275.70 | 0.62 | 38.26 |
| 2025-12-12 | 278.11 | 0.99 | 49.87 |
| 2025-12-11 | 277.14 | 0.90 | 47.41 |
| 2025-12-10 | 278.32 | 1.26 | 55.82 |
| 2025-12-09 | 278.04 | 1.34 | 57.31 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 270.97
Latest SMA: 277.49
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 269.44
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 285.54
ADX for AAPL, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 81.88
Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:
Last 30 days average volume: 47.2M
Today's volume: 36.7M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.78
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 277.43
Support levels for AAPL (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 195.07 on 2025-06-18 (UTC)
Last High: 288.62 on 2025-12-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 260.44, 38.2%: 243.01, 50.0%: 228.92, 61.8%: 214.82, 78.6%: 194.76
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 194.76
Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 129.5M | 44M | 2.94 |
| 2025-11-14 | 114.9M | 47.1M | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-31 | 115.6M | 52.6M | 2.20 |
| 2025-10-15 | 109.1M | 41.5M | 2.63 |
| 2025-09-30 | 110.8M | 63.5M | 1.74 |
| 2025-09-15 | 118.2M | 55.6M | 2.13 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.6M | 38.3M | 2.97 |
| 2025-08-15 | 127.1M | 74.8M | 1.70 |
| 2025-07-31 | 104.6M | 48.9M | 2.14 |
| 2025-07-15 | 93.9M | 48.5M | 1.94 |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
AAPL 265 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.1872, delta: -0.3171, gamma: 0.0237, theta: -0.0743, vega: 0.2856 ask price: 3.25, bid price: 3.1
AAPL 260 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.1973, delta: -0.2176, gamma: 0.0186, theta: -0.0664, vega: 0.2359 ask price: 2.08, bid price: 1.97
AAPL 255 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.2085, delta: -0.1454, gamma: 0.0137, theta: -0.0555, vega: 0.1831 ask price: 1.33, bid price: 1.24
AAPL 250 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.2196, delta: -0.095, gamma: 0.0096, theta: -0.0438, vega: 0.1355 ask price: 0.83, bid price: 0.78
AAPL 245 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.2327, delta: -0.0626, gamma: 0.0066, theta: -0.0341, vega: 0.0987 ask price: 0.54, bid price: 0.5
AAPL 240 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.257, delta: -0.0478, gamma: 0.0048, theta: -0.0306, vega: 0.0797 ask price: 0.55, bid price: 0.29
AAPL 235 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.2613, delta: -0.0279, gamma: 0.0031, theta: -0.0201, vega: 0.0513 ask price: 0.25, bid price: 0.21
AAPL 230 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.2925, delta: -0.0247, gamma: 0.0025, theta: -0.0205, vega: 0.0464 ask price: 0.34, bid price: 0.11
Weekly options:
AAPL 265 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.1712, delta: -0.2183, gamma: 0.0366, theta: -0.1016, vega: 0.1385 ask price: 1.05, bid price: 0.99
AAPL 260 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.1871, delta: -0.0966, gamma: 0.0195, theta: -0.0657, vega: 0.0804 ask price: 0.42, bid price: 0.39
AAPL 255 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2054, delta: -0.0416, gamma: 0.0092, theta: -0.0378, vega: 0.0418 ask price: 0.18, bid price: 0.15
AAPL 250 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2292, delta: -0.02, gamma: 0.0045, theta: -0.0231, vega: 0.0227 ask price: 0.09, bid price: 0.07
AAPL 245 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2561, delta: -0.0108, gamma: 0.0024, theta: -0.0153, vega: 0.0134 ask price: 0.05, bid price: 0.04
AAPL 240 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3014, delta: -0.0093, gamma: 0.0018, theta: -0.0158, vega: 0.0118 ask price: 0.07, bid price: 0.02
AAPL 235 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3238, delta: -0.0051, gamma: 0.001, theta: -0.01, vega: 0.0069 ask price: 0.03, bid price: 0.02
AAPL 230 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: None, delta: N/A, gamma: N/A, theta: N/A, vega: N/A ask price: 0.06, bid price: 0.0
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral
Reasoning:
-
Financial: AAPL's most recent EPS of $1.85 beat consensus ($1.76) and is above its 8-quarter average ($1.65). The company has not missed earnings estimates in the past two years. However, valuation is a significant concern. The current P/E of 34.03 is at the high end of its 1-year range (30.45-39.85) and well above its 5-year low of 21.73, suggesting the stock is richly priced. Management sentiment from the last earnings call was mixed, with the CEO slightly positive (0.57) but the CFO and IR Director more cautious (0.42 and 0.10, respectively). A major red flag is consistent and substantial insider selling over the last 90 days, totaling over 228K shares sold, including a single $220K sale. This activity, especially by a holder of 14.5M shares, signals a lack of confidence from those with the most insight.
-
Technical: The stock is in a corrective phase. The current price of $270.97 is below the 20-day SMA ($277.49) and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($269.44), indicating it is oversold in the short term. Momentum is bearish: the MACD histogram has been negative for 10 consecutive days, and the RSI (48.86) and MFI (49.1) are both neutral, showing no strong buying pressure. The price is below the key 50-day EMA ($268.57) but well above the 200-day EMA ($241.98), indicating the long-term uptrend is intact but the medium-term trend is weakening. Support is evident at the recent low of ~$266.95 and at the Fibonacci 23.6% level of $260.44.
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News & Macro: News sentiment is net positive, highlighting record revenue, a strong product pipeline (8 new iPhones in development), and long-term outperformance. However, a prominent negative article notes Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold 15% of its AAPL stake, citing expensive valuation—a significant bearish signal from a savvy long-term investor. The macroeconomic backdrop from the provided report describes a "late-cycle expansion" with "extreme equity market valuation" (Buffett Indicator at 223.8%) and "sticky inflation." This high-level market risk increases the vulnerability of richly valued stocks like AAPL to a broader correction.
-
Option Chain: The option chain shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for out-of-the-money puts, particularly for the weekly $240 put (IV 30.14%) and monthly $240 put (IV 25.7%). This indicates the market is pricing in a higher probability of a sharp move lower. The put-call skew and high IV for downside strikes can be seen as a hedge against further decline.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Given the mixed signals, aggressive buying is not advised. For investors seeking a lower-risk entry, an ideal buy zone would be on a successful test of stronger support between $260.44 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and $266.86 (price -2 std dev). A move back above the 50-day EMA (~$269) with increasing volume could also serve as a confirmation signal for a tactical long.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Trade): A rebound to the 20-day SMA/VWAP area near $277.50 (2.4% gain from $270.97).
- Long-term (Hold): A retest of the recent high near $288.62 (6.5% gain) would require a significant shift in momentum and sentiment.
- Stop-Loss: A close below $266.00 (breaking the recent 20-day low) would invalidate the near-term bullish case and suggest further downside toward $260.
- Time Horizon: Short-to-Medium Term (Weeks). The next major catalyst is earnings on January 28, 2026. Positioning ahead of this event will be key.
Final Notes: AAPL is a fundamentally strong company trading at a premium valuation within an expensive market. The confluence of insider selling, Berkshire's divestment, bearish technical momentum, and a high macro risk environment creates significant headwinds that offset the positive news flow and solid earnings history. The risk/reward profile at the current price is not compelling. The recommendation is Neutral; existing holders may hold, but new money should wait for a better risk-adjusted entry point at lower support levels or for clear technical improvement.