AAPL 2026-01-06
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-06
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.85
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.76
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-30
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.65
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.4
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.97
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-29
Valuation Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-06
Current P/E for AAPL: 34.03
1 year P/E range: 30.45 - 39.85
2 years P/E range: 26.45 - 39.85
5 years P/E range: 21.73 - 39.85
Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.10 |
| CEO | 0.57 |
| CFO | 0.42 |
Insider transactions for AAPL in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | -3.8K | $271.23 | Sell | 15.1K |
| 2025-10-16 | -4.2K | $247.39 | Sell | 41.3K |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for AAPL
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 272.11
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 266.14
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 271.64
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 269.0
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 269.12
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 265.84
Price Range for AAPL
AAPL current price: $267.26
5-Day Range: $266.14 - $277.84
50-Day Range: $257.76 - $288.62
200-Day Range: $168.63 - $288.62
Technical Indicators Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-06
MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | -0.30 | 0.43 | -0.73 |
| 2025-12-31 | -0.11 | 0.61 | -0.71 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.06 | 0.79 | -0.72 |
| 2025-12-29 | 0.15 | 0.97 | -0.82 |
| 2025-12-26 | 0.19 | 1.17 | -0.98 |
| 2025-12-24 | 0.28 | 1.42 | -1.13 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.35 | 1.70 | -1.35 |
| 2025-12-22 | 0.58 | 2.04 | -1.46 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1.00 | 2.40 | -1.41 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1.25 | 2.76 | -1.51 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 269.65 |
| 2025-12-31 | 269.60 |
| 2025-12-30 | 269.51 |
| 2025-12-29 | 269.36 |
| 2025-12-26 | 269.18 |
| 2025-12-24 | 269.01 |
| 2025-12-23 | 268.81 |
| 2025-12-22 | 268.67 |
| 2025-12-19 | 268.57 |
| 2025-12-18 | 268.37 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 244.28 |
| 2025-12-31 | 244.01 |
| 2025-12-30 | 243.73 |
| 2025-12-29 | 243.43 |
| 2025-12-26 | 243.13 |
| 2025-12-24 | 242.83 |
| 2025-12-23 | 242.51 |
| 2025-12-22 | 242.21 |
| 2025-12-19 | 241.93 |
| 2025-12-18 | 241.61 |
RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 43.93 |
| 2025-12-31 | 45.79 |
| 2025-12-30 | 48.53 |
| 2025-12-29 | 50.08 |
| 2025-12-26 | 49.28 |
| 2025-12-24 | 50.13 |
| 2025-12-23 | 47.15 |
| 2025-12-22 | 44.19 |
| 2025-12-19 | 49.16 |
| 2025-12-18 | 46.07 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 54.68
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | 268.30 | 1.21 | 54.68 |
| 2026-01-02 | 272.62 | 1.17 | 53.83 |
| 2025-12-31 | 272.43 | 0.77 | 43.36 |
| 2025-12-30 | 273.15 | 0.73 | 42.30 |
| 2025-12-29 | 273.49 | 0.66 | 39.68 |
| 2025-12-26 | 273.88 | 0.88 | 46.70 |
| 2025-12-24 | 273.81 | 0.70 | 41.16 |
| 2025-12-23 | 271.47 | 0.75 | 42.98 |
| 2025-12-22 | 271.79 | 0.97 | 49.12 |
| 2025-12-19 | 272.72 | 0.96 | 48.88 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 267.26
Latest SMA: 274.14
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 267.89
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 280.4
ADX for AAPL, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 9.99
Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:
Last 30 days average volume: 42.6M
Today's volume: 45.6M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.07
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 274.18
Support levels for AAPL (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 196.86 on 2025-06-20 (UTC)
Last High: 288.62 on 2025-12-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 260.44, 38.2%: 243.01, 50.0%: 228.92, 61.8%: 214.82, 78.6%: 194.76
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 194.76
Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 122M | 41.4M | 2.95 |
| 2025-11-28 | 129.5M | 44M | 2.94 |
| 2025-11-14 | 114.9M | 47.1M | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-31 | 115.6M | 52.6M | 2.20 |
| 2025-10-15 | 109.1M | 41.5M | 2.63 |
| 2025-09-30 | 110.8M | 63.5M | 1.74 |
| 2025-09-15 | 118.2M | 55.6M | 2.13 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.6M | 38.3M | 2.97 |
| 2025-08-15 | 127.1M | 74.8M | 1.70 |
| 2025-07-31 | 104.6M | 48.9M | 2.14 |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
AAPL 260 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.2483, delta: -0.3309, gamma: 0.0185, theta: -0.1018, vega: 0.2865 ask price: 4.5, bid price: 4.4
AAPL 255 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.2563, delta: -0.2476, gamma: 0.0156, theta: -0.0931, vega: 0.2498 ask price: 3.15, bid price: 3.05
AAPL 250 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.2665, delta: -0.1814, gamma: 0.0125, theta: -0.0817, vega: 0.2084 ask price: 2.19, bid price: 2.12
AAPL 245 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.2768, delta: -0.1302, gamma: 0.0097, theta: -0.0687, vega: 0.1674 ask price: 1.51, bid price: 1.45
AAPL 240 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.2889, delta: -0.0929, gamma: 0.0073, theta: -0.0567, vega: 0.1314 ask price: 1.05, bid price: 1.0
AAPL 235 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.3013, delta: -0.0658, gamma: 0.0054, theta: -0.0458, vega: 0.1011 ask price: 0.73, bid price: 0.69
AAPL 230 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.3146, delta: -0.0465, gamma: 0.0039, theta: -0.0365, vega: 0.077 ask price: 0.51, bid price: 0.48
AAPL 225 put expires on 2026-02-06
iv: 0.3304, delta: -0.0338, gamma: 0.0029, theta: -0.0297, vega: 0.0593 ask price: 0.37, bid price: 0.35
Weekly options:
AAPL 260 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2138, delta: -0.2249, gamma: 0.0303, theta: -0.1288, vega: 0.1389 ask price: 1.33, bid price: 1.29
AAPL 255 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2317, delta: -0.1185, gamma: 0.0185, theta: -0.0935, vega: 0.0918 ask price: 0.65, bid price: 0.62
AAPL 250 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2555, delta: -0.0639, gamma: 0.0106, theta: -0.0656, vega: 0.058 ask price: 0.35, bid price: 0.32
AAPL 245 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.283, delta: -0.0367, gamma: 0.0061, theta: -0.0468, vega: 0.0372 ask price: 0.21, bid price: 0.18
AAPL 240 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3113, delta: -0.022, gamma: 0.0036, theta: -0.0338, vega: 0.0243 ask price: 0.13, bid price: 0.11
AAPL 235 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3386, delta: -0.0134, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.0241, vega: 0.0159 ask price: 0.08, bid price: 0.07
AAPL 230 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3629, delta: -0.0079, gamma: 0.0013, theta: -0.0164, vega: 0.0101 ask price: 0.05, bid price: 0.04
AAPL 225 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3978, delta: -0.0058, gamma: 0.0009, theta: -0.0137, vega: 0.0076 ask price: 0.04, bid price: 0.03
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a cautious bias toward a potential short-term tactical Buy on a dip)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Mixed. Earnings are strong (EPS of 1.85 beat consensus of 1.76, no misses in 8 quarters), and the upcoming earnings date (Jan 29) is a near-term catalyst. However, valuation is a significant concern. The current P/E of 34.03 is at the high end of its 1-year range (30.45-39.85) and well above its 5-year low of 21.73, suggesting limited upside from valuation expansion. Management sentiment from the last earnings call was lukewarm (CEO: 0.57, CFO: 0.42, IR: 0.10), and insider transactions show consistent selling over the last 90 days, which is a bearish signal.
-
Technical: Bearish near-term momentum within a strong long-term uptrend. The stock price ($267.26) is below its 50-day EMA (~$269.65) and has broken below the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band ($267.89), indicating oversold conditions in the short term. Key support levels cluster around $265-269 (recent lows, price below mean by 1-2 std dev). The MACD histogram is deeply negative and declining, and RSI (43.93) is neutral but falling from recent highs. Volume is slightly elevated (ratio 1.07), suggesting some selling pressure. The long-term trend remains up (price > 200-day EMA at ~$244.28).
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is mildly positive, focusing on long-term strength (dividend growth, iPhone 17 cycle). The macroeconomic backdrop, as detailed in the SPY report, is one of late-cycle expansion with high valuations and deteriorating consumer health (savings rate at 4%). This creates a fragile environment for high-multiple stocks like AAPL. The broader market (SPY) is also at all-time highs with waning momentum, suggesting limited tailwinds.
-
Option Chain: Implied Volatility (IV) for puts is elevated (e.g., 0.2483 for the 260 Put expiring Feb 6), reflecting market anxiety and pricing in potential downside risk around the upcoming earnings. The put skew (higher IV for lower strikes) is normal. The high vega values indicate the option prices are sensitive to changes in volatility, which will spike around earnings.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Given the oversold short-term readings and proximity to strong support, a tactical buy zone exists between $265.00 and $268.00. This aligns with the price below the mean by two standard deviations ($265.84), the recent 20-day low ($266.14), and key Fibonacci support (23.6% at $260.44 is a secondary, stronger level). A more conservative entry would wait for a bullish reversal candle or a reclaim of the 50-day EMA (~$270).
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Pre-Earnings): $277 - $280. This is the upper end of the recent 5-day range and near the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band. A move back to the 50-day EMA/VWAP (~$274) is a more immediate target.
- Long-term: Dependent on Q4 earnings (Jan 29) results and guidance. A beat and raise could target the 52-week high (~$289). A miss could see a test of the 200-day EMA (~$244).
- Stop-Loss: A close below $264.00 would invalidate the near-term support thesis and suggest a deeper correction toward the $257-260 zone (50-day range low, next Fibonacci level).
- Time Horizon: Short-to-Medium Term (2-8 weeks), heavily dictated by the January 29th earnings report. This is a trade on a technical bounce into earnings, not a long-term investment at current valuations.
Final Notes:
- High Risk Catalyst: The upcoming earnings report on January 29th is the dominant near-term risk. The high P/E leaves no room for error. Consider reducing position size or using defined-risk strategies (e.g., bull put spreads) if entering before earnings.
- Contrarian Indicator: The overwhelmingly positive long-term news sentiment ("dividend stock for 25 years") amidst deteriorating macro fundamentals and insider selling is a classic warning sign of potential complacency.
- Alternative Strategy: For investors concerned about downside risk but wanting exposure, consider selling cash-secured puts at the $255 or $250 strike (Feb expiry) to potentially enter at a lower price while collecting premium, or waiting for a post-earnings reaction for clearer direction.
Overall: AAPL is a fundamentally strong company trading at a premium valuation in a late-cycle market. The technicals suggest a short-term oversold bounce is likely, but the risk/reward for a new long-term investment at this price is not compelling. A Neutral rating is warranted, with a tactical Buy opportunity only for risk-tolerant traders looking to play a bounce into earnings, with strict risk management.