AAPL 2026-01-16
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-16
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.85
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.76
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-30
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.65
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.4
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.97
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-29
Valuation Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-16
Current P/E for AAPL: 34.03
1 year P/E range: 30.45 - 39.85
2 years P/E range: 26.45 - 39.85
5 years P/E range: 21.73 - 39.85
Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.10 |
| CFO | 0.42 |
| CEO | 0.57 |
Insider transactions for AAPL in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | -3.8K | $271.23 | Sell | 15.1K |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for AAPL
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 260.31
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 255.7
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 262.12
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 258.39
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 258.73
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 252.06
Price Range for AAPL
AAPL current price: $258.21
5-Day Range: $256.22 - $261.82
50-Day Range: $255.70 - $288.62
200-Day Range: $168.63 - $288.62
Technical Indicators Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-16
MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | -3.74 | -2.54 | -1.20 |
| 2026-01-13 | -3.62 | -2.24 | -1.39 |
| 2026-01-12 | -3.54 | -1.89 | -1.65 |
| 2026-01-09 | -3.30 | -1.47 | -1.82 |
| 2026-01-08 | -2.85 | -1.02 | -1.84 |
| 2026-01-07 | -2.21 | -0.56 | -1.65 |
| 2026-01-06 | -1.49 | -0.15 | -1.34 |
| 2026-01-05 | -0.76 | 0.19 | -0.94 |
| 2026-01-02 | -0.30 | 0.43 | -0.73 |
| 2025-12-31 | -0.11 | 0.61 | -0.71 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 267.30 |
| 2026-01-13 | 267.60 |
| 2026-01-12 | 267.87 |
| 2026-01-09 | 268.18 |
| 2026-01-08 | 268.54 |
| 2026-01-07 | 268.93 |
| 2026-01-06 | 269.28 |
| 2026-01-05 | 269.56 |
| 2026-01-02 | 269.65 |
| 2025-12-31 | 269.60 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 245.56 |
| 2026-01-13 | 245.42 |
| 2026-01-12 | 245.26 |
| 2026-01-09 | 245.11 |
| 2026-01-08 | 244.97 |
| 2026-01-07 | 244.83 |
| 2026-01-06 | 244.67 |
| 2026-01-05 | 244.49 |
| 2026-01-02 | 244.26 |
| 2025-12-31 | 244.00 |
RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 30.53 |
| 2026-01-13 | 32.12 |
| 2026-01-12 | 29.62 |
| 2026-01-09 | 26.88 |
| 2026-01-08 | 25.87 |
| 2026-01-07 | 27.23 |
| 2026-01-06 | 29.50 |
| 2026-01-05 | 36.27 |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.34 |
| 2025-12-31 | 45.19 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 38.01
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 258.77 | 0.61 | 38.01 |
| 2026-01-14 | 259.50 | 0.64 | 38.93 |
| 2026-01-13 | 260.42 | 0.68 | 40.48 |
| 2026-01-12 | 259.45 | 0.45 | 31.14 |
| 2026-01-09 | 258.60 | 0.37 | 27.04 |
| 2026-01-08 | 258.01 | 0.29 | 22.76 |
| 2026-01-07 | 261.27 | 0.32 | 24.05 |
| 2026-01-06 | 264.01 | 0.33 | 24.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | 268.30 | 1.21 | 54.68 |
| 2026-01-02 | 272.62 | 1.17 | 53.83 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 258.21
Latest SMA: 267.29
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 254.78
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 279.79
ADX for AAPL, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 41.33
Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:
Last 30 days average volume: 42.3M
Today's volume: 39.4M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.93
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 267.5
Support levels for AAPL (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 199.26 on 2025-06-30 (UTC)
Last High: 288.62 on 2025-12-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 260.44, 38.2%: 243.01, 50.0%: 228.92, 61.8%: 214.82, 78.6%: 194.76
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 194.76
Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 112.7M | 41.6M | 2.71 |
| 2025-12-15 | 122M | 41.4M | 2.95 |
| 2025-11-28 | 129.5M | 44M | 2.94 |
| 2025-11-14 | 114.9M | 47.1M | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-31 | 115.6M | 52.6M | 2.20 |
| 2025-10-15 | 109.1M | 41.5M | 2.63 |
| 2025-09-30 | 110.8M | 63.5M | 1.74 |
| 2025-09-15 | 118.2M | 55.6M | 2.13 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.6M | 38.3M | 2.97 |
| 2025-08-15 | 127.1M | 74.8M | 1.70 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-13:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255 | 0.27 | -0.40 | 0.02 | -0.12 | 0.28 | 6.10 | 5.85 |
| 250 | 0.28 | -0.31 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.26 | 4.30 | 4.15 |
| 245 | 0.28 | -0.23 | 0.01 | -0.10 | 0.22 | 2.93 | 2.70 |
| 240 | 0.29 | -0.16 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.18 | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| 235 | 0.30 | -0.12 | 0.01 | -0.07 | 0.14 | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| 230 | 0.31 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| 225 | 0.32 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.08 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| 220 | 0.33 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.34 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-30:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255 | 0.30 | -0.39 | 0.02 | -0.19 | 0.20 | 4.55 | 4.40 |
| 250 | 0.30 | -0.28 | 0.02 | -0.17 | 0.18 | 2.87 | 2.69 |
| 245 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 0.02 | -0.14 | 0.14 | 1.72 | 1.52 |
| 240 | 0.32 | -0.12 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.10 | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| 235 | 0.33 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.08 | 0.07 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| 230 | 0.35 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| 225 | 0.37 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| 220 | 0.39 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a cautious bias toward a potential short-term tactical buy on a deeper pullback)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: AAPL's most recent earnings beat consensus ($1.85 vs. $1.76), continuing a strong track record of no misses in the past 8 quarters. However, the current P/E of 34.03 is at the higher end of its 1-year range (30.45-39.85) and well above its 5-year low of 21.73, indicating a premium valuation. Management sentiment from the last earnings call was mixed, with the CFO notably less positive (0.42) than the CEO (0.57). A recent insider sale (3.8K shares) is a minor, but noteworthy, data point. The upcoming earnings report on Jan 29, 2026, is a significant near-term catalyst that could reset expectations.
-
Technical: The stock is in a clear downtrend from its December high of $288.62. The current price of $258.21 is below all key EMAs (50-day EMA at ~$267.30, 200-day EMA at ~$245.56), confirming bearish momentum. Key indicators are oversold but not yet showing reversal: RSI is at 30.53 (approaching oversold), MACD is negative and its histogram is declining, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is at 38.01, indicating selling pressure. The price is hovering just above the Bollinger Lower Band ($254.78) and the Fibonacci 23.6% support level ($260.44), which it has recently broken below. Volume is slightly below average, suggesting no panic selling yet. The ADX of 41.33 indicates a strong trend (downward).
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is net neutral-to-slightly positive, with key positives being strong demand signals from major supplier TSMC. A negative is Goldman Sachs exiting the Apple Card partnership, though the market reaction was muted. The macroeconomic backdrop is the dominant concern. The analysis indicates a late-cycle environment with high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator at 224%), a cooling labor market, and depleted consumer savings. While the Fed has turned accommodative (rates at 3.7%), the overall risk context for high-PE mega-cap stocks like AAPL is elevated. The broader market (SPY) is at all-time highs but showing signs of exhaustion at resistance.
-
Option Chain: The put option chain shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for strikes at and below the current price (27%-39% for monthly puts), reflecting heightened perceived risk and demand for downside protection as earnings approach. The delta for the $255 put is -0.40, indicating options markets assign a ~40% probability of AAPL closing below $255 at the Feb 13 expiration. This aligns with technical support levels.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: The risk/reward for buying at the current level ($258.21) is unfavorable as the stock is in a firm downtrend. An ideal buy zone for a tactical bounce would be between $250 - $255. This area aligns with:
- The next major Fibonacci support (38.2% at $243.01, but $250 is a psychological level).
- The price target implied by being two standard deviations below the 20-day mean ($252.06).
- The strike price of put options with significant open interest, indicating a potential battle zone.
-
Profit Targets & Stop-Loss:
- If entering in the $250-$255 zone: Initial profit target would be a retest of the broken 50-day EMA (~$267), a ~5-7% gain. A more aggressive target would be the 20-day SMA/~$267.29.
- Stop-Loss: A close below $245 (just below the 200-day EMA and the $245 put strike) would invalidate the bounce thesis and indicate a deeper correction toward $240 or lower.
-
Time Horizon: Short-term (2-8 weeks), explicitly tied to a potential oversold bounce and the upcoming earnings event. This is not a long-term "buy and hold" recommendation at this price.
Final Notes: Warning: The primary risk is that AAPL is undergoing a valuation correction within a broader market that is itself overvalued. The strong downtrend suggests "catching a falling knife" is dangerous. The upcoming earnings report on Jan 29 adds significant uncertainty; a miss or weak guidance could lead to a sharp drop below all mentioned support levels. Opportunity: For patient investors with a long-term horizon, a significant pullback toward the $235-$245 range (near the 200-day EMA and deeper Fibonacci supports) would present a much more compelling risk/reward entry point to build a position in a fundamentally strong company. Until then, or until a clear technical reversal pattern forms, the prudent stance is Neutral.