AAPL 2026-01-25
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-25
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.85
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.76
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 0.97 - 2.4
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.65
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-30
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Upcoming earnings date: []
Valuation Data Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-25
Current P/E for AAPL: 34.03
1 year P/E range: 30.45 - 39.85
2 years P/E range: 26.45 - 39.85
5 years P/E range: 21.73 - 39.85
Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.10 |
| CFO | 0.42 |
| CEO | 0.57 |
Insider transactions for AAPL in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | -3.8K | $271.23 | Sell | 15.1K |
Technical Report
Price Range for AAPL
AAPL current price: $248.04
5-Day Range: $243.42 - $258.90
50-Day Range: $243.42 - $288.62
200-Day Range: $168.63 - $288.62
Price Distribution for AAPL in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 257.54
Lowest price: 243.42
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 254.93
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 248.15
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 249.95
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 240.11
Technical Indicators Summary for AAPL as of 2026-01-25
MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | -6.25 | -4.74 | -1.51 |
| 2026-01-22 | -6.04 | -4.36 | -1.67 |
| 2026-01-21 | -5.71 | -3.95 | -1.76 |
| 2026-01-20 | -5.14 | -3.50 | -1.63 |
| 2026-01-16 | -4.23 | -3.10 | -1.14 |
| 2026-01-15 | -3.92 | -2.81 | -1.11 |
| 2026-01-14 | -3.74 | -2.54 | -1.20 |
| 2026-01-13 | -3.62 | -2.24 | -1.39 |
| 2026-01-12 | -3.54 | -1.89 | -1.65 |
| 2026-01-09 | -3.30 | -1.47 | -1.82 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 263.72 |
| 2026-01-22 | 264.36 |
| 2026-01-21 | 265.01 |
| 2026-01-20 | 265.72 |
| 2026-01-16 | 266.50 |
| 2026-01-15 | 266.95 |
| 2026-01-14 | 267.30 |
| 2026-01-13 | 267.60 |
| 2026-01-12 | 267.87 |
| 2026-01-09 | 268.18 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 245.92 |
| 2026-01-22 | 245.90 |
| 2026-01-21 | 245.87 |
| 2026-01-20 | 245.85 |
| 2026-01-16 | 245.85 |
| 2026-01-15 | 245.75 |
| 2026-01-14 | 245.62 |
| 2026-01-13 | 245.48 |
| 2026-01-12 | 245.32 |
| 2026-01-09 | 245.17 |
RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 22.16 |
| 2026-01-22 | 22.42 |
| 2026-01-21 | 20.43 |
| 2026-01-20 | 17.77 |
| 2026-01-16 | 24.98 |
| 2026-01-15 | 28.21 |
| 2026-01-14 | 30.61 |
| 2026-01-13 | 32.20 |
| 2026-01-12 | 29.72 |
| 2026-01-09 | 26.99 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 34.62
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 247.38 | 0.53 | 34.62 |
| 2026-01-22 | 249.17 | 0.51 | 33.90 |
| 2026-01-21 | 248.13 | 0.35 | 25.72 |
| 2026-01-20 | 248.30 | 0.35 | 25.67 |
| 2026-01-16 | 256.45 | 0.37 | 27.25 |
| 2026-01-15 | 258.77 | 0.61 | 38.01 |
| 2026-01-14 | 259.50 | 0.64 | 38.93 |
| 2026-01-13 | 260.42 | 0.68 | 40.48 |
| 2026-01-12 | 259.45 | 0.45 | 31.14 |
| 2026-01-09 | 258.60 | 0.37 | 27.04 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 248.04
Latest SMA: 261.55
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 242.99
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 280.11
ADX for AAPL, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 84.12
Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:
Last 30 days average volume: 45.1M
Today's volume: 41.7M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.92
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 261.39
Support levels for AAPL (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 201.5 on 2025-08-01 (UTC)
Last High: 288.62 on 2025-12-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 260.44, 38.2%: 243.01, 50.0%: 228.92, 61.8%: 214.82, 78.6%: 194.76
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 112.7M | 41.6M | 2.71 |
| 2025-12-15 | 122M | 41.4M | 2.95 |
| 2025-11-28 | 129.5M | 44M | 2.94 |
| 2025-11-14 | 114.9M | 47.1M | 2.44 |
| 2025-10-31 | 115.6M | 52.6M | 2.20 |
| 2025-10-15 | 109.1M | 41.5M | 2.63 |
| 2025-09-30 | 110.8M | 63.5M | 1.74 |
| 2025-09-15 | 118.2M | 55.6M | 2.13 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.6M | 38.3M | 2.97 |
| 2025-08-15 | 127.1M | 74.8M | 1.70 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-27:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | 0.29 | -0.42 | 0.02 | -0.12 | 0.29 | 7.10 | 6.95 |
| 240 | 0.30 | -0.33 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.27 | 5.25 | 5.10 |
| 235 | 0.30 | -0.25 | 0.01 | -0.10 | 0.24 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| 230 | 0.31 | -0.19 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.20 | 2.70 | 2.42 |
| 225 | 0.33 | -0.14 | 0.01 | -0.08 | 0.17 | 1.97 | 1.79 |
| 220 | 0.33 | -0.10 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 1.35 | 1.12 |
| 215 | 0.35 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| 210 | 0.37 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | 0.36 | -0.41 | 0.02 | -0.25 | 0.17 | 5.15 | 5.00 |
| 240 | 0.37 | -0.30 | 0.02 | -0.23 | 0.16 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| 235 | 0.38 | -0.21 | 0.02 | -0.20 | 0.13 | 2.10 | 2.04 |
| 230 | 0.40 | -0.14 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.10 | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| 225 | 0.41 | -0.09 | 0.01 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| 220 | 0.45 | -0.06 | 0.01 | -0.10 | 0.06 | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| 215 | 0.48 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.09 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| 210 | 0.52 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.21 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: AAPL demonstrates strong earnings consistency, having beaten consensus estimates in the last 8 quarters with a recent EPS of $1.85 (vs. $1.76 expected). However, valuation remains elevated with a P/E of 34.03, near the upper end of its 5-year range. Management sentiment is mixed (CEO slightly positive, CFO neutral, IR negative), and a minor insider sale occurred at $271.23, suggesting limited insider enthusiasm at current levels.
-
Technical: The stock is in a short-term downtrend (MACD negative, below 50-day EMA) but is now deeply oversold (RSI 22.16, near Bollinger lower band of $242.99) and testing key support at the 200-day EMA (~$245.92) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($243.01). The high ADX (84.12) confirms a strong trend, which could signal a nearing exhaustion point for the decline. Volume is slightly below average, indicating no panic selling.
-
News: Sentiment is predominantly positive (6 out of 10 articles), highlighting long-term growth prospects from AI integration, services expansion, and a growing installed base. However, one article cautions on valuation, and another notes retail investor outflows toward AI peers like NVDA. The macro backdrop suggests late-cycle risks (high equity valuations, fragile consumer spending), but a dovish Fed pivot provides a floor.
-
Option Chain: Monthly put options show moderate implied volatility (~0.29–0.37) at strikes near current price, with delta values indicating reasonable downside protection costs. The 245-strike put has a delta of -0.42, reflecting a ~42% probability of expiring ITM, which aligns with the key support zone.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $243–$245 (near the 200-day EMA and Fibonacci 38.2% support). Current price ($248.04) is acceptable for partial entry, but averaging down toward $243 improves risk/reward.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (2–6 weeks): $258–$263 (4–6% gain), based on the 5-day high and 50-day EMA.
- Long-term (6+ months): $288 (16% gain), aligning with prior highs and Bollinger upper band.
- Stop-Loss: $239 (just below the recent low of $243.42 and the two-standard-deviation level of $240.11), limiting downside to ~3–4%.
- Time Horizon: Primarily a medium-term trade (weeks to months) to capture a technical rebound, but long-term investors can hold through growth catalysts pending valuation normalization.
Final Notes: This is a contrarian buy based on oversold conditions and strong fundamentals. Watch for a break below $240, which would invalidate the support thesis and could lead to a decline toward $228.92 (50% Fibonacci). Conversely, a close above the 50-day EMA ($263.72) would signal trend reversal. Consider using put options (e.g., 245-strike monthly puts) for downside protection if entering at current levels.