Backtest AAPL 2025-03-18
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symbol
AAPL
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None
financial report
----EPS data summary for AAPL as of 2025-03-18----:
Most recent EPS (Actual): 2.4
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 2.35
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-01-30
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2024-12-31
Historical EPS (last 8 quarters):
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2024-09-30 | 1.64 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.4 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.53 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2.18 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.46 |
| 2023-06-30 | 1.26 |
| 2023-03-31 | 1.52 |
| 2022-12-31 | 1.88 |
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.61
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 1 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.18
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.26
Upcoming earnings date: 2025-05-01
----Valuation data summary for AAPL as of 2025-03-18----:
Current P/E for AAPL: 35.84
Symbols of peer companies within the same sector: None
Average P/E for these peer companies: None
Historical low P/E for AAPL: 21.78
Historical high P/E for AAPL: 35.84
----Sector peers performance for AAPL in the past 200 days----:
WDC: -9.74%
HPQ: -17.93%
IONQ: 235.98%
DIS: 10.42%
SMCI: -4.18%
PSTG: -1.17%
HPE: -17.12%
MSFT: -6.44%
DELL: -14.84%
AMZN: 9.66%
NVDA: 0.16%
NFLX: 35.46%
TSLA: 11.16%
GOOG: 1.25%
META: 16.34%
GOOGL: 0.92%
NTAP: -22.05%
----Stock performance for AAPL in the past 200 days----:
AAPL: -6.34%
----Management Sentiment Summary for AAPL in 2025Q1 earnings call----:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|--------|---------------|
| CEO | 0.59 |
| CFO | 0.50 |
technical report
Technical Summary for AAPL as of 2025-03-18:
MACD values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| 2025-03-18 | -2.86 | -6.61 | -3.75 |
| 2025-03-17 | -3.11 | -6.14 | -3.03 |
| 2025-03-14 | -3.33 | -5.59 | -2.25 |
| 2025-03-13 | -3.33 | -4.75 | -1.42 |
| 2025-03-12 | -2.63 | -3.22 | -0.59 |
| 2025-03-11 | -2.02 | -1.96 | 0.07 |
| 2025-03-10 | -1.29 | -0.72 | 0.57 |
| 2025-03-07 | -0.69 | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| 2025-03-06 | -0.88 | 0.19 | 1.07 |
| 2025-03-05 | -0.73 | 0.56 | 1.29 |
EMA values for AAPL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2025-03-18 | 232.71 |
| 2025-03-17 | 233.53 |
| 2025-03-14 | 234.33 |
| 2025-03-13 | 235.18 |
| 2025-03-12 | 236.22 |
| 2025-03-11 | 237.00 |
| 2025-03-10 | 237.66 |
| 2025-03-07 | 238.08 |
| 2025-03-06 | 238.04 |
| 2025-03-05 | 238.15 |
RSI values for AAPL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2025-03-18 | 30.97 |
| 2025-03-17 | 31.85 |
| 2025-03-14 | 31.14 |
| 2025-03-13 | 25.76 |
| 2025-03-12 | 29.92 |
| 2025-03-11 | 32.50 |
| 2025-03-10 | 37.67 |
| 2025-03-07 | 50.79 |
| 2025-03-06 | 45.06 |
| 2025-03-05 | 45.60 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AAPL over the last 20 days:
Latest MFI: 50.72
| Date | MFI | Money Flow | Money Flow Ratio | Negative Flow | Positive Flow | Typical Price |
|--------|--------|----------|----------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
| 2025-03-17 | 50.72 | 10229264894.66 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 10229264894.66 | 212.78 |
| 2025-03-14 | 50.67 | 12746533103.41 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 12746533103.41 | 212.06 |
| 2025-03-13 | 50.69 | 12971386253.11 | 1.03 | 12971386253.11 | 0.00 | 211.37 |
| 2025-03-12 | 55.68 | 13610001789.42 | 1.26 | 13610001789.42 | 0.00 | 217.59 |
| 2025-03-11 | 61.25 | 16832969961.13 | 1.58 | 16832969961.13 | 0.00 | 221.09 |
| 2025-03-10 | 63.76 | 16503323782.53 | 1.76 | 16503323782.53 | 0.00 | 228.99 |
| 2025-03-07 | 65.93 | 11017178759.45 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 11017178759.45 | 238.09 |
| 2025-03-06 | 64.12 | 10621442290.33 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 10621442290.33 | 235.14 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AAPL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 213.72
Latest SMA: 233.74
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 208.96
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 258.52
Volume and volume ratio for AAPL:
Last 30 days average volume: 49407713.33
Today's volume: 48073400
Volume Ratio: 0.97
Support levels for AAPL in the last 200 days:
Last Low: 188.63 on 2024-05-29
Last High: 259.47 on 2024-12-26
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 236.73, 38.2%: 222.66, 50.0%: 211.28, 61.8%: 199.91, 78.6%: 183.72
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 183.72
Short interest data for AAPL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | avg_daily_volume | days_to_cover | short_interest |
|-----------|----------------|-------------|--------------|
| 2025-03-14 | 56586843 | 2.29 | 129678474 |
| 2025-02-28 | 44925361 | 2.99 | 134441154 |
| 2025-02-14 | 45049013 | 2.84 | 127893856 |
| 2025-01-31 | 71221819 | 1.75 | 124917523 |
| 2025-01-15 | 45239163 | 2.99 | 135189465 |
| 2024-12-31 | 52132884 | 3.01 | 157008120 |
| 2024-12-13 | 39757888 | 3.94 | 156458273 |
Current VIX: 20.51, VIX percentile: 82.08%
Current UVXY: 22.38, UVXY percentile in the past 90 days: 75.86%
Close Price: 213.72
news report
News and sentiment report for AAPL as of 2025-03-18:
No news found for AAPL from news api from the last 30 days.
Peer news results as a comparison:
WDC: 0 articles found.
HPQ: 0 articles found.
IONQ: 0 articles found.
DIS: 0 articles found.
SMCI: 0 articles found.
PSTG: 0 articles found.
HPE: 0 articles found.
MSFT: 0 articles found.
DELL: 0 articles found.
AMZN: 0 articles found.
Detailed Sentiment Analysis based on 10 AAPL news articles:
Title: Purpose Investments Inc. annonce les distributions de mars 2025
Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.
Published: 2025-03-18T23:15:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The article mentions a monthly distribution for the Purpose Apple Income ETF, indicating a positive sentiment towards the company.
Title: Equity Exposure Plummets, Cash Holdings Jump As Investors Rethink 'US Exceptionalism,' Bank Of America Survey
Publisher: Benzinga
Published: 2025-03-18T15:13:27Z
Sentiment: negative
Reasoning: The article mentions a sharp rotation out of U.S. equities, including the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants like Apple, suggesting a negative sentiment.
Title: Apple Partner Globalstar Just Set a New Record, but Did You Even Notice?
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-03-18T11:30:00Z
Sentiment: neutral
Reasoning: The article mentions that Apple is believed to be Globalstar's largest customer, but does not provide any specific insights or opinions about Apple's performance or outlook.
Title: Online Gaming Market Forecast Report and Company Analysis 2025-2033 Featuring Activision Blizzard, Apple, Capcom, Electronic Arts, Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony, and Tencent
Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.
Published: 2025-03-18T11:00:00Z
Sentiment: neutral
Reasoning: The article does not provide any specific information about Apple's role or performance in the online gaming market, so a neutral sentiment is assigned.
Title: The Best Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy With $2,000 Right Now
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-03-18T09:45:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The article argues that Apple's artificial intelligence business, while getting a slow start, has long-term potential, and the current dip in the stock price presents a buying opportunity.
Title: Apple Stock: Optimism Rides High Despite 2025 Slump
Publisher: Investing.com
Published: 2025-03-17T19:52:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: Analysts remain optimistic about Apple's long-term prospects, citing the company's potential collaborations with Chinese firms and its ability to introduce impactful updates that drive consumer interest, despite the recent dip in stock value due to delays in AI initiatives.
URL: https://www.investing.com/analysis/apple-stock-optimism-rides-high-despite-2025-slump-200658396
Title: Apple Just Gave Taiwan Semiconductor Investors Great News
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-03-17T16:15:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: Apple's $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure, including manufacturing and silicon engineering, is seen as a positive for the company's long-term competitiveness in the AI space.
Title: Can This Unstoppable Stock Join Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms in the $1 Trillion Club by 2035?
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-03-16T22:30:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: Apple is mentioned as one of the existing trillion-dollar companies, indicating its strong market position.
Title: Warren Buffett's Warning to Wall Street Just Got Distinctively Louder. Here's What to Do Next in the S&P 500 Correction.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-03-16T22:10:00Z
Sentiment: neutral
Reasoning: Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple, which could signal caution about the company's prospects, but the article does not provide a clear sentiment on the stock.
Title: Consumer Tech News (Mar 10-Mar 14): Manus AI Creating Hype, Tesla Eyes Affordable Version Model Y In China & More
Publisher: Benzinga
Published: 2025-03-16T15:38:04Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The article mentions that Apple is preparing for a major software overhaul with iOS 19, which is expected to transform the iPhone's interface.
Out of the total 10 articles,
There are 6 articles with positive sentiment, and
1 articles with negative sentiment. Remaining articles are neutral.
today
2025-03-18
final report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
Financial:
-
Earnings Strength: AAPL's most recent EPS of 2.4 beat consensus (2.35), continuing a trend of strong profitability. The historical average EPS (1.61) suggests stability, though the P/E ratio (35.84) is at an all-time high, indicating potential overvaluation relative to historical norms (low: 21.78).
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Growth Outlook: Upcoming earnings (May 1) could serve as a catalyst, especially if AI investments (e.g., $500B in AI infrastructure) materialize into revenue drivers.
-
Risks: High P/E implies limited margin for error; any earnings miss could trigger a correction.
Technical:
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Oversold Conditions: RSI (30.97) suggests AAPL is nearing oversold territory, while MACD remains negative but slowing its descent.
-
Support Levels: Strong support at Fibonacci 50% (211.28) and Bollinger Lower Band (208.96). A break below 200 (psychological support) would signal further downside.
-
Volume: Below-average volume (ratio: 0.97) indicates weak selling pressure, but lack of buying interest.
News:
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Positive Sentiment Dominates: 6/10 articles are bullish, highlighting AI potential, Buffett’s long-term holding, and software updates (iOS 19).
-
Negative Catalyst: Rotation out of U.S. equities (per BofA survey) could pressure tech stocks short-term.
Additional Context:
- Sector Underperformance: AAPL (-6.34% past 200 days) lags peers (e.g., NVDA +0.16%, META +16.34%), suggesting relative weakness but also potential mean reversion.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
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Capital Allocation: Allocate 5–7% of portfolio capital to AAPL, given elevated P/E risk.
-
Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $208–$212 (near Bollinger lower band and Fibonacci 50%).
-
Stop-Loss: Exit below $200 (~6% loss), a critical psychological and technical level.
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Hedging Measures:
-
Protective Puts: Buy May 2025 $200 puts (~3% of position cost).
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Pair Trade: Short NVDA (relative strength) to hedge tech exposure.
-
VIX Hedge: Avoid (VIX percentile 82.08% suggests volatility is already elevated).
- Profit Targets:
-
Short-term: $230 (8% upside, near EMA 50 resistance).
-
Long-term: $250+ (hold through AI product launches if fundamentals improve).
- Time Horizon: 3–6 months, aligning with earnings and AI updates.
Final Notes:
-
Watch Earnings Closely: May 1 report could validate or invalidate the AI growth narrative.
-
Macro Risks: Fed policy and sector rotation may override technicals.
-
Alternative Play: If AAPL breaks $200, consider waiting for $183 (Fibonacci 78.6%) before re-evaluating.
Rating: Buy (Moderate upside with defined risk controls; not a "Strong Buy" due to rich valuation).