Backtest NVDA 2025-04-04
messages
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symbol
NVDA
message
Trump started a tariff war
financial report
----EPS data summary for NVDA as of 2025-04-04----:
Most recent EPS (Actual): 0.89
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 0.8459
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-02-26
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-01-31
Historical EPS (last 8 quarters):
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2024-10-31 | 0.81 |
| 2024-07-31 | 0.68 |
| 2024-04-30 | 0.612 |
| 2024-01-31 | 0.516 |
| 2023-10-31 | 0.402 |
| 2023-07-31 | 0.27 |
| 2023-04-30 | 0.109 |
| 2023-01-31 | 0.088 |
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.44
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.81
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.088
----Valuation data summary for NVDA as of 2025-04-04----:
Current P/E for NVDA: 40.12
Symbols of peer companies within the same sector: None
Average P/E for these peer companies: None
Historical low P/E for NVDA: 35.76
Historical high P/E for NVDA: 94.41
----Sector peers performance for NVDA in the past 200 days----:
AMZN: -3.5%
INTC: 7.27%
MRVL: -24.09%
AAPL: -5.86%
AVGO: -5.26%
TXN: -16.11%
GOOGL: -4.42%
GOOG: -3.78%
TSLA: 17.86%
MSFT: -13.15%
ADI: -18.29%
6697.T: 121.57%
META: -0.14%
QCOM: -15.43%
MU: -14.41%
AMD: -38.32%
----Management Sentiment Summary for NVDA in 2025Q2 earnings call----:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|--------|---------------|
| CFO | 0.58 |
| CEO | 0.84 |
technical report
Technical Summary for NVDA as of 2025-04-04:
MACD values for NVDA in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| 2025-04-04 | -1.45 | -5.31 | -3.87 |
| 2025-04-03 | -0.74 | -4.25 | -3.51 |
| 2025-04-02 | -0.27 | -3.59 | -3.32 |
| 2025-04-01 | -0.32 | -3.58 | -3.25 |
| 2025-03-31 | -0.31 | -3.48 | -3.17 |
| 2025-03-28 | -0.03 | -3.12 | -3.09 |
| 2025-03-27 | 0.34 | -2.75 | -3.09 |
| 2025-03-26 | 0.76 | -2.42 | -3.17 |
| 2025-03-25 | 1.17 | -2.19 | -3.36 |
| 2025-03-24 | 1.07 | -2.58 | -3.65 |
EMA values for NVDA with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2025-04-04 | 119.88 |
| 2025-04-03 | 120.92 |
| 2025-04-02 | 121.70 |
| 2025-04-01 | 122.16 |
| 2025-03-31 | 122.65 |
| 2025-03-28 | 123.23 |
| 2025-03-27 | 123.79 |
| 2025-03-26 | 124.29 |
| 2025-03-25 | 124.72 |
| 2025-03-24 | 124.89 |
RSI values for NVDA in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|--------|--------|
| 2025-04-04 | 28.47 |
| 2025-04-03 | 33.43 |
| 2025-04-02 | 41.07 |
| 2025-04-01 | 40.68 |
| 2025-03-31 | 38.16 |
| 2025-03-28 | 39.29 |
| 2025-03-27 | 40.82 |
| 2025-03-26 | 42.87 |
| 2025-03-25 | 49.78 |
| 2025-03-24 | 50.57 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for NVDA over the last 20 days:
Latest MFI: 44.78
| Date | MFI | Money Flow | Money Flow Ratio | Negative Flow | Positive Flow | Typical Price |
|--------|--------|----------|----------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
| 2025-04-03 | 44.78 | 34894211348.89 | 0.81 | 34894211348.89 | 0.00 | 103.00 |
| 2025-04-02 | 44.70 | 24204888956.39 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 24204888956.39 | 109.72 |
| 2025-04-01 | 45.48 | 24249884345.16 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 24249884345.16 | 108.93 |
| 2025-03-31 | 40.32 | 32212000476.03 | 0.68 | 32212000476.03 | 0.00 | 107.66 |
| 2025-03-28 | 39.38 | 25407575843.07 | 0.65 | 25407575843.07 | 0.00 | 110.53 |
| 2025-03-27 | 38.13 | 26573832591.36 | 0.62 | 26573832591.36 | 0.00 | 112.17 |
| 2025-03-26 | 36.62 | 33776259127.86 | 0.58 | 33776259127.86 | 0.00 | 115.10 |
| 2025-03-25 | 41.94 | 20142500060.17 | 0.72 | 20142500060.17 | 0.00 | 120.29 |
| 2025-03-24 | 41.14 | 27638548766.15 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 27638548766.15 | 120.98 |
| 2025-03-21 | 38.89 | 31187930179.56 | 0.64 | 31187930179.56 | 0.00 | 117.03 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for NVDA, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 101.79
Latest SMA: 113.88
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 103.07
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 124.69
Volume and volume ratio for NVDA:
Last 30 days average volume: 295526100.0
Today's volume: 338769400
Volume Ratio: 1.15
Support levels for NVDA in the last 200 days:
Last Low: 90.66 on 2024-08-05
Last High: 153.11 on 2025-01-07
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 134.81, 38.2%: 123.49, 50.0%: 114.34, 61.8%: 105.19, 78.6%: 92.17
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 92.17
Short interest data for NVDA in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | avg_daily_volume | days_to_cover | short_interest |
|-----------|----------------|-------------|--------------|
| 2025-03-31 | 253171367 | 1.00 | 234404715 |
| 2025-03-14 | 335729552 | 1.00 | 258072746 |
| 2025-02-28 | 269883275 | 1.00 | 241358114 |
| 2025-02-14 | 230785762 | 1.05 | 241662760 |
| 2025-01-31 | 350554229 | 1.00 | 271436938 |
| 2025-01-15 | 228358034 | 1.26 | 287064263 |
| 2024-12-31 | 197427582 | 1.46 | 287895394 |
| 2024-12-13 | 189494299 | 1.48 | 279745590 |
Current VIX: 30.02, VIX percentile: 98.84%
Current UVXY: 30.88, UVXY percentile in the past 90 days: 100.0%
Close Price: 101.79
news report
News and sentiment report for NVDA as of 2025-04-04:
No news found for NVDA from news api from the last 30 days.
Peer news results as a comparison:
AMZN: 0 articles found.
INTC: 0 articles found.
MRVL: 0 articles found.
AAPL: 0 articles found.
AVGO: 0 articles found.
TXN: 0 articles found.
GOOGL: 0 articles found.
GOOG: 0 articles found.
TSLA: 0 articles found.
MSFT: 0 articles found.
Detailed Sentiment Analysis based on 10 NVDA news articles:
Title: Why Nvidia Stock Is Nose-Diving Today
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-04T17:55:42Z
Sentiment: negative
Reasoning: Nvidia's stock price dropped significantly due to the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the semiconductor industry. The company's strong presence in the Chinese market and its reliance on the global supply chain make it vulnerable to the trade tensions, which could hurt its competitiveness and financial performance.
Title: Why Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Are Plunging Today
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-04T16:09:01Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The author states that Nvidia is still a leader in AI processors with an estimated 70% to 95% of the market, and that the world will continue to need advanced processors for years to come.
Title: Virtual Prototype Market Size to Surpass USD 1975.27 Million by 2032, Owing to the Growing Demand for Cost-Effective Product Development | SNS Insider
Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.
Published: 2025-04-04T14:00:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: NVIDIA's CUDA and NVIDIA DRIVE technologies are crucial for powering virtual prototyping solutions, and the company is likely to benefit from the market's growth.
Title: GPU As A Service Market Size to Surpass USD 33.91 Billion by 2032, Owing to Growing Demand for AI and High-Performance Computing | SNS Insider
Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.
Published: 2025-04-04T14:00:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: NVIDIA Corporation is mentioned as a major player in the GPU as a Service market, indicating its strong presence and growth potential in this industry.
Title: Microsoft Halts Data Center Expansions Due To Semiconductor Tariff Concerns, AI Overcapacity Fears
Publisher: Benzinga
Published: 2025-04-04T13:19:16Z
Sentiment: neutral
Reasoning: Microsoft recently dumped negotiations to lease space to host NVIDIA's advanced chips, suggesting a shift in their partnership.
Title: US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After The Worst Selloff Since 2020: Tariff Announcement Was '100% Smoot Hawley Disguised As Thoughtful Policy,' Says Expert
Publisher: Benzinga
Published: 2025-04-04T10:18:40Z
Sentiment: negative
Reasoning: Nvidia shares tumbled 7.8% as part of the technology sector's underperformance.
Title: 2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy in April
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-04T09:30:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The article suggests that Nvidia is an attractive stock to own at current levels due to the persistent demand for its GPUs as companies continue to invest in advanced AI models.
URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/04/04/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-april/?source=iedfolrf0000001
Title: Jensen Huang Recently Delivered Incredible News for Nvidia Investors
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-04T08:27:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: The article highlights Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture as a key driver for the company's growth, as it is designed to power the increasing demand for AI reasoning models. The article also notes that Nvidia has received a significant number of orders for its Blackwell GPUs from the top cloud providers, indicating strong demand for the company's products.
Title: Move Over, Stock-Split Stocks: IPO Mania Is Taking Center Stage (and It's Probably Not Going to End Well)
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-04T07:41:00Z
Sentiment: positive
Reasoning: Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture hold a near-monopoly on AI-accelerated data center market share, which is expected to play a key role in the expansion of the AI revolution.
Title: Why Applied Digital Stock Is Plummeting Today
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Published: 2025-04-03T19:58:28Z
Sentiment: neutral
Reasoning: The article mentions that the Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) used in Applied Digital's data center operations rely on chips manufactured in Taiwan, which could be impacted by the new tariffs.
Out of the total 10 articles,
There are 6 articles with positive sentiment, and
2 articles with negative sentiment. Remaining articles are neutral.
today
2025-04-04
final report
Recommendation: Buy (with caution due to macroeconomic risks)
Reasoning:
Financial:
-
Strong Earnings Growth: NVDA has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past 8 quarters, with EPS rising from $0.088 (Q1 2023) to $0.89 (Q1 2025).
-
High P/E (40.12): While elevated, it is below the historical high (94.41), suggesting room for growth if earnings continue to expand.
-
Management Sentiment: CEO sentiment is highly positive (0.84), indicating confidence in future performance.
Technical:
-
Oversold Conditions: RSI at 28.47 (below 30) suggests potential for a short-term bounce.
-
MACD Bearish but Stabilizing: MACD histogram is negative but improving slightly.
-
Support Levels:
-
Fibonacci 61.8% support at $105.19 (near current price).
-
Strong historical support at $90.66 (August 2024 low).
-
Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band ($103.07), indicating potential mean reversion.
News:
-
Tariff Risks: Negative sentiment due to Trump’s tariff war, which could impact supply chains and margins.
-
Long-Term AI Demand: Positive sentiment around NVDA’s AI leadership (Blackwell GPUs, CUDA dominance).
-
Mixed Market Reaction: Stock dropped sharply but remains a key player in AI/GPU markets.
Additional Context:
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Sector Weakness: Most peers (AMD, INTC, AVGO) are down YTD, suggesting broader semiconductor pressure.
-
VIX Elevated (30.02, 98.84% percentile): High market volatility increases short-term risk.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Capital Allocation:
- Allocate no more than 5-7% of total capital to this position.
- Entry Price:
-
Ideal Buy Zone: $100–$105 (near Fibonacci support and oversold RSI).
-
Aggressive Entry: If price stabilizes above $100 with improving MACD.
- Stop-Loss:
-
Hard Stop: $95 (~5% below entry).
-
Trailing Stop: If rally occurs, move stop to 5% below recent highs.
- Profit Targets:
-
Short-Term (1-3 months): $120 (near 50-day EMA and previous resistance).
-
Long-Term (6+ months): $140+ if AI demand remains strong and tariffs ease.
- Time Horizon:
- Short-to-Medium Term (1-6 months) due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Final Notes:
-
Watch for Tariff Developments: Further escalation could pressure NVDA’s supply chain.
-
Earnings Date (Next Expected: May 2025): Potential catalyst for rebound if guidance remains strong.
-
Alternative Play: Consider selling cash-secured puts at $95–$100 to enter at a discount.
Conclusion: NVDA is a high-quality stock facing short-term headwinds. A cautious Buy near support with tight risk management is justified.