Macro Econ 2025-11-21
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.0 to 4.4
2 year data range: 3.7 to 4.4
3 year data range: 3.4 to 4.4
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159626.0 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 158942.0 to 159626.0
2 year data range: 156930.0 to 159626.0
3 year data range: 154336.0 to 159626.0
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732010.0 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 711461.0 to 732010.0
2 year data range: 680456.0 to 732010.0
3 year data range: 651763.0 to 732010.0
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 62.2 to 62.6
2 year data range: 62.2 to 62.7
3 year data range: 62.2 to 62.8
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.6 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 4.3 to 5.7
2 year data range: 4.3 to 6.4
3 year data range: 4.2 to 6.4
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 324.37 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 317.603 to 324.368
2 year data range: 308.735 to 324.368
3 year data range: 298.808 to 324.368
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excludingthe volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 126.7 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 124.196 to 126.705
2 year data range: 120.592 to 126.705
3 year data range: 116.952 to 126.705
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.44 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 253.423 to 262.562
2 year data range: 249.866 to 262.562
3 year data range: 249.866 to 262.562
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 4.09 on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 4.09 to 4.48
2 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
3 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6555283.0 on 2025-11-19
1 year data range: 6555283.0 to 6905140.0
2 year data range: 6555283.0 to 7810814.0
3 year data range: 6555283.0 to 8733787.0
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.55 on 2025-11-20
1 year data range: 0.02 to 0.67
2 year data range: -0.53 to 0.67
3 year data range: -1.08 to 0.67
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.16 on 2025-11-20
1 year data range: -0.4 to 0.42
2 year data range: -1.65 to 0.42
3 year data range: -1.89 to 0.42
US Dollar Index: 100.16
Current VIX: 26.42
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 213.39%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days:
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.040 |
| 2025-11-17 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-14 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-13 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-12 | 0.080 |
| 2025-11-11 | nan |
| 2025-11-10 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-07 | 0.030 |
| 2025-11-06 | 0.020 |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.230 |
| 2025-10-31 | 0.320 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 670.8
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 651.89
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 668.72
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 661.21
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 662.12
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 652.22
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $652.53
5-Day Range: $651.89 - $675.66
50-Day Range: $651.89 - $689.70
200-Day Range: $479.05 - $689.70
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-11-21----
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | -3.28 | -2.09 | 1.19 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.67 | -0.65 | 2.01 |
| 2025-11-18 | -2.52 | 0.16 | 2.68 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.86 | 1.45 | 3.31 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.26 | 2.52 | 3.77 |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.89 | 3.20 | 4.09 |
| 2025-11-12 | -0.31 | 4.01 | 4.31 |
| 2025-11-11 | -0.56 | 3.83 | 4.39 |
| 2025-11-10 | -0.94 | 3.59 | 4.53 |
| 2025-11-07 | -1.38 | 3.38 | 4.76 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 665.82 |
| 2025-11-19 | 666.36 |
| 2025-11-18 | 666.51 |
| 2025-11-17 | 666.78 |
| 2025-11-14 | 666.82 |
| 2025-11-13 | 666.61 |
| 2025-11-12 | 666.39 |
| 2025-11-11 | 665.70 |
| 2025-11-10 | 664.99 |
| 2025-11-07 | 664.32 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 626.48 |
| 2025-11-19 | 626.22 |
| 2025-11-18 | 625.86 |
| 2025-11-17 | 625.51 |
| 2025-11-14 | 625.11 |
| 2025-11-13 | 624.64 |
| 2025-11-12 | 624.16 |
| 2025-11-11 | 623.57 |
| 2025-11-10 | 622.97 |
| 2025-11-07 | 622.38 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 35.33 |
| 2025-11-19 | 41.83 |
| 2025-11-18 | 39.21 |
| 2025-11-17 | 43.17 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.24 |
| 2025-11-13 | 48.34 |
| 2025-11-12 | 59.23 |
| 2025-11-11 | 58.94 |
| 2025-11-10 | 57.80 |
| 2025-11-07 | 49.02 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 30.6
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 30.60 | 0.44 | 659.99 |
| 2025-11-19 | 33.29 | 0.50 | 662.91 |
| 2025-11-18 | 31.86 | 0.47 | 660.35 |
| 2025-11-17 | 33.15 | 0.50 | 667.18 |
| 2025-11-14 | 41.77 | 0.72 | 670.28 |
| 2025-11-13 | 53.41 | 1.15 | 674.47 |
| 2025-11-12 | 55.25 | 1.23 | 683.10 |
| 2025-11-11 | 45.53 | 0.84 | 681.77 |
| 2025-11-10 | 45.76 | 0.84 | 679.55 |
| 2025-11-07 | 44.90 | 0.81 | 667.75 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 652.53
Latest SMA: 675.45
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 656.23
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 694.66
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 26.5
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 86192454.37
Today's volume: 165293521.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.92
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 675.46
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 556.04 on 2025-05-07 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 561.22
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 76522628 | 1.42 | 108765577 |
| 2025-10-15 | 78477131 | 1.25 | 97853277 |
| 2025-09-30 | 80850698 | 1.41 | 114193765 |
| 2025-09-15 | 71699100 | 1.56 | 111615053 |
| 2025-08-29 | 62857355 | 1.81 | 113532927 |
| 2025-08-15 | 72324072 | 1.61 | 116795786 |
| 2025-07-31 | 70406427 | 1.59 | 112116988 |
| 2025-07-15 | 63497368 | 1.78 | 113295755 |
| 2025-06-30 | 80743529 | 1.45 | 116685530 |
| 2025-06-13 | 68813266 | 1.69 | 116023961 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy is exhibiting clear signs of a late-cycle expansion, characterized by a moderating growth pulse and persistent inflation pressures. The labor market is cooling, with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.4% and payroll growth plateauing, yet consumer spending remains resilient as evidenced by steadily climbing Retail Sales. However, the low Personal Savings Rate of 4.6% suggests this spending is not infinitely sustainable.
Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target, with the Core PCE and CPI continuing their upward trajectories. In response, the Fed has maintained a restrictive stance, with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.09%. While the yield curve (10yr-2yr at 0.55%) is no longer inverted—suggesting receding immediate recession fears—the 10yr-3mo spread remains narrow at 0.16%, indicating lingering uncertainty. Market context is challenging: the Buffett Indicator at 213.39% signals extreme valuation, and a VIX of 26.42 reflects elevated investor anxiety. The positive SOFR-IORB spread points to some tightening in overnight liquidity, consistent with the Fed's ongoing balance sheet reduction (assets down from ~$6.9T to ~$6.56T over the past year).
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 213.39% is significantly above historical norms, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp correction.
-
Risk: Sticky Inflation and Hawkish Fed Policy
- Severity: High
- Rationale: Core PCE continues to trend higher, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive rates which dampens economic growth and equity multiples.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Technical Momentum
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: SPY has broken below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs with bearish MACD and RSI momentum, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
-
Risk: Weakening Labor Market
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from a low of 3.7% two years ago, signaling a potential slowdown in consumer strength.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Sell
- Time Horizon: Short-Term to Medium-Term (0-6 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: $651.89 (Recent 20-day low and price below the two-standard deviation Bollinger Band)
- Next Resistance: $665.82 (50-day EMA, which now acts as dynamic resistance)
- Brief Rationale: The macroeconomic backdrop of sticky inflation and restrictive monetary policy is a headwind for equity valuations. Technically, SPY has broken key support levels, with the price trading below all major moving averages and momentum indicators like MACD and RSI firmly in bearish territory. The high volume on the sell-off (Volume Ratio of 1.92) confirms the downward momentum.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: The preferred strategy is short-term bearish momentum or range-bound selling. rallies towards the 50-day EMA (~$666) present selling opportunities, with a target of the recent low near $652. A break below $652 could see a move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $561.
- For Long-Term Investors: This is an environment to build cash and wait for better entry points. Avoid deploying new capital aggressively. For existing positions, consider using any bear market rallies to rebalance portfolios and reduce overweight equity exposure. Dollar-cost averaging should be paused until the technical picture stabilizes above key moving averages.