Macro Econ 2025-11-23
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.0 to 4.4
2 year data range: 3.7 to 4.4
3 year data range: 3.4 to 4.4
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159626.0 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 158942.0 to 159626.0
2 year data range: 156930.0 to 159626.0
3 year data range: 154336.0 to 159626.0
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732010.0 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 711461.0 to 732010.0
2 year data range: 680456.0 to 732010.0
3 year data range: 651763.0 to 732010.0
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 62.2 to 62.6
2 year data range: 62.2 to 62.7
3 year data range: 62.2 to 62.8
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.6 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 4.3 to 5.7
2 year data range: 4.3 to 6.4
3 year data range: 4.2 to 6.4
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 324.37 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 317.603 to 324.368
2 year data range: 308.735 to 324.368
3 year data range: 298.808 to 324.368
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excludingthe volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 126.7 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 124.196 to 126.705
2 year data range: 120.592 to 126.705
3 year data range: 116.952 to 126.705
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.44 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 253.423 to 262.562
2 year data range: 249.866 to 262.562
3 year data range: 249.866 to 262.562
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 4.09 on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 4.09 to 4.48
2 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
3 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6555283.0 on 2025-11-19
1 year data range: 6555283.0 to 6905140.0
2 year data range: 6555283.0 to 7796145.0
3 year data range: 6555283.0 to 8733787.0
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.55 on 2025-11-21
1 year data range: 0.02 to 0.67
2 year data range: -0.53 to 0.67
3 year data range: -1.08 to 0.67
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.16 on 2025-11-21
1 year data range: -0.4 to 0.42
2 year data range: -1.65 to 0.42
3 year data range: -1.89 to 0.42
US Dollar Index: 100.2
Current VIX: 23.43
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 215.75%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days:
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-19 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.040 |
| 2025-11-17 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-14 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-13 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-12 | 0.080 |
| 2025-11-11 | nan |
| 2025-11-10 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-07 | 0.030 |
| 2025-11-06 | 0.020 |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.230 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 669.15
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 650.85
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 668.72
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 658.75
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 659.85
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 648.92
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $659.03
5-Day Range: $650.85 - $675.56
50-Day Range: $650.85 - $689.70
200-Day Range: $479.05 - $689.70
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-11-23----
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | -3.09 | -2.67 | 0.42 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.28 | -2.09 | 1.19 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.67 | -0.65 | 2.01 |
| 2025-11-18 | -2.52 | 0.16 | 2.68 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.86 | 1.45 | 3.31 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.26 | 2.52 | 3.77 |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.89 | 3.20 | 4.09 |
| 2025-11-12 | -0.31 | 4.01 | 4.31 |
| 2025-11-11 | -0.56 | 3.83 | 4.39 |
| 2025-11-10 | -0.94 | 3.59 | 4.53 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 665.55 |
| 2025-11-20 | 665.82 |
| 2025-11-19 | 666.36 |
| 2025-11-18 | 666.51 |
| 2025-11-17 | 666.78 |
| 2025-11-14 | 666.82 |
| 2025-11-13 | 666.61 |
| 2025-11-12 | 666.39 |
| 2025-11-11 | 665.70 |
| 2025-11-10 | 664.99 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 626.81 |
| 2025-11-20 | 626.49 |
| 2025-11-19 | 626.22 |
| 2025-11-18 | 625.86 |
| 2025-11-17 | 625.51 |
| 2025-11-14 | 625.11 |
| 2025-11-13 | 624.64 |
| 2025-11-12 | 624.16 |
| 2025-11-11 | 623.57 |
| 2025-11-10 | 622.97 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 41.60 |
| 2025-11-20 | 35.31 |
| 2025-11-19 | 41.81 |
| 2025-11-18 | 39.19 |
| 2025-11-17 | 43.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.22 |
| 2025-11-13 | 48.31 |
| 2025-11-12 | 59.19 |
| 2025-11-11 | 58.90 |
| 2025-11-10 | 57.77 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 29.93
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 29.93 | 0.43 | 658.14 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.60 | 0.44 | 659.99 |
| 2025-11-19 | 33.29 | 0.50 | 662.91 |
| 2025-11-18 | 31.86 | 0.47 | 660.35 |
| 2025-11-17 | 33.15 | 0.50 | 667.18 |
| 2025-11-14 | 41.77 | 0.72 | 670.28 |
| 2025-11-13 | 53.41 | 1.15 | 674.47 |
| 2025-11-12 | 55.25 | 1.23 | 683.10 |
| 2025-11-11 | 45.53 | 0.84 | 681.77 |
| 2025-11-10 | 45.76 | 0.84 | 679.55 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 659.03
Latest SMA: 674.54
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 654.0
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 695.08
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 21.57
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 85010241.5
Today's volume: 123956203.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.46
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 675.18
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 556.04 on 2025-05-07 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 561.22
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 76522628 | 1.42 | 108765577 |
| 2025-10-15 | 78477131 | 1.25 | 97853277 |
| 2025-09-30 | 80850698 | 1.41 | 114193765 |
| 2025-09-15 | 71699100 | 1.56 | 111615053 |
| 2025-08-29 | 62857355 | 1.81 | 113532927 |
| 2025-08-15 | 72324072 | 1.61 | 116795786 |
| 2025-07-31 | 70406427 | 1.59 | 112116988 |
| 2025-07-15 | 63497368 | 1.78 | 113295755 |
| 2025-06-30 | 80743529 | 1.45 | 116685530 |
| 2025-06-13 | 68813266 | 1.69 | 116023961 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits clear signs of a late-cycle expansion, characterized by a cooling labor market and resilient but potentially peaking consumer activity. The Growth Pulse is moderating: the Unemployment Rate has risen to a 3-year high of 4.4%, and while Nonfarm Payrolls are at an all-time peak, the pace of growth has slowed markedly. Consumer health is a mixed picture; Retail Sales continue to hit new highs, but the Personal Savings Rate has fallen to 4.6%, suggesting consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending. The Inflation & Fed Stance is one of cautious optimism; the Core PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge) and CPI show inflation is elevated but may be stabilizing. The Fed has begun to ease, with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.09% down from its peak, and the balance sheet is contracting, indicating quantitative tightening is ongoing. The Market Context is challenging: the Buffett Indicator at 215.75% signals extreme overvaluation, the VIX at 23.43 points to elevated fear, and while the 10y-2y yield curve is positive, the 10y-3m spread is only marginally so at 0.16%, offering a weak all-clear signal. The SOFR-IORB spread, though volatile, suggests periods of cash scarcity in overnight markets.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 215.75% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp correction.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The Unemployment Rate rising to 4.4% from a low of 3.4% over three years indicates the previously robust jobs market is cooling, which could weaken consumer spending.
-
Risk: Exhausted Consumer
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The Personal Savings Rate of 4.6% is near the lower end of its 3-year range, indicating limited capacity for future spending growth if the labor market softens further.
-
Risk: Persistent Inflationary Pressures
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Core PCE and CPI continue to print at multi-year highs, which could prevent the Federal Reserve from delivering the aggressive rate cuts the market may be expecting.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Short- to Medium-Term (1-6 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 200-day EMA at ~$626.81 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $561.22.
- Next Resistance: The 50-day EMA at ~$665.55 and the recent high of $689.70.
- Brief Rationale: The macroeconomic backdrop suggests a late-cycle environment where growth is slowing but a full-blown recession is not yet imminent. Technically, SPY is in a short-term downtrend, trading below its key moving averages with bearish momentum (MACD histogram negative, RSI ~41.6). A "Hold" recommendation is prudent until the price finds stronger support or shows a confirmed reversal, as the risk of further downside remains elevated.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound or bearish-bias strategy. The current setup favors selling into strength near the 50-day EMA (~$665) with a stop above $690, and looking for buy opportunities near stronger support levels like the 200-day EMA (~$626) or the Bollinger Lower Band (~$654). The elevated VIX and negative momentum indicators support this cautious approach.
- For Long-Term Investors: Continue dollar-cost averaging but maintain a elevated cash position for future buying opportunities. The high valuation (Buffett Indicator) and late-cycle signals suggest future returns may be muted. Use this period to rebalance portfolios, ensuring alignment with long-term risk tolerance, as a more significant market pullback would present a superior entry point.