Macro Econ 2025-11-30
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.0 to 4.4
2 year data range: 3.7 to 4.4
3 year data range: 3.4 to 4.4
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159626.0 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 158942.0 to 159626.0
2 year data range: 156930.0 to 159626.0
3 year data range: 154336.0 to 159626.0
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 733258.0 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 711461.0 to 733258.0
2 year data range: 680456.0 to 733258.0
3 year data range: 651763.0 to 733258.0
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 62.2 to 62.6
2 year data range: 62.2 to 62.7
3 year data range: 62.2 to 62.8
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.6 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 4.3 to 5.7
2 year data range: 4.3 to 6.4
3 year data range: 4.2 to 6.4
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 324.37 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 317.603 to 324.368
2 year data range: 308.735 to 324.368
3 year data range: 298.808 to 324.368
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excludingthe volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 126.7 on 2025-08-01
1 year data range: 124.196 to 126.705
2 year data range: 120.592 to 126.705
3 year data range: 116.952 to 126.705
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.34 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 253.423 to 262.363
2 year data range: 249.866 to 262.363
3 year data range: 249.866 to 262.363
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 4.09 on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 4.09 to 4.48
2 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
3 year data range: 4.09 to 5.33
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6552419.0 on 2025-11-26
1 year data range: 6552419.0 to 6897485.0
2 year data range: 6552419.0 to 7739566.0
3 year data range: 6552419.0 to 8733787.0
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.55 on 2025-11-28
1 year data range: 0.02 to 0.67
2 year data range: -0.53 to 0.67
3 year data range: -1.08 to 0.67
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.14 on 2025-11-28
1 year data range: -0.32 to 0.42
2 year data range: -1.65 to 0.42
3 year data range: -1.89 to 0.42
US Dollar Index: 99.48
Current VIX: 16.35
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 224.16%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days:
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | 0.150 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.110 |
| 2025-11-24 | 0.060 |
| 2025-11-21 | 0.030 |
| 2025-11-20 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-19 | 0.010 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.040 |
| 2025-11-17 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-14 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-13 | 0.100 |
| 2025-11-12 | 0.080 |
| 2025-11-11 | nan |
| 2025-11-10 | 0.050 |
| 2025-11-07 | 0.030 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 667.96
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 650.85
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 664.48
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 655.86
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 658.57
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 648.68
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $683.39
5-Day Range: $650.85 - $683.67
50-Day Range: $650.85 - $689.70
200-Day Range: $479.05 - $689.70
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-11-30
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 0.82 | 0.60 | -0.22 |
| 2025-11-26 | -0.08 | -0.50 | -0.42 |
| 2025-11-25 | -1.11 | -1.52 | -0.41 |
| 2025-11-24 | -2.19 | -2.32 | -0.13 |
| 2025-11-21 | -3.09 | -2.67 | 0.42 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.28 | -2.09 | 1.19 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.67 | -0.65 | 2.01 |
| 2025-11-18 | -2.52 | 0.16 | 2.68 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.86 | 1.45 | 3.31 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.26 | 2.52 | 3.77 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 667.24 |
| 2025-11-26 | 666.58 |
| 2025-11-25 | 666.04 |
| 2025-11-24 | 665.68 |
| 2025-11-21 | 665.55 |
| 2025-11-20 | 665.82 |
| 2025-11-19 | 666.36 |
| 2025-11-18 | 666.51 |
| 2025-11-17 | 666.77 |
| 2025-11-14 | 666.82 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 628.79 |
| 2025-11-26 | 628.25 |
| 2025-11-25 | 627.73 |
| 2025-11-24 | 627.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 626.84 |
| 2025-11-20 | 626.51 |
| 2025-11-19 | 626.25 |
| 2025-11-18 | 625.89 |
| 2025-11-17 | 625.54 |
| 2025-11-14 | 625.14 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 59.03 |
| 2025-11-26 | 56.76 |
| 2025-11-25 | 53.78 |
| 2025-11-24 | 49.42 |
| 2025-11-21 | 41.51 |
| 2025-11-20 | 35.20 |
| 2025-11-19 | 41.68 |
| 2025-11-18 | 39.05 |
| 2025-11-17 | 43.00 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.06 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 39.28
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 39.28 | 0.65 | 682.52 |
| 2025-11-26 | 32.26 | 0.48 | 679.37 |
| 2025-11-25 | 31.63 | 0.46 | 671.90 |
| 2025-11-24 | 30.16 | 0.43 | 666.79 |
| 2025-11-21 | 29.93 | 0.43 | 658.14 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.60 | 0.44 | 659.99 |
| 2025-11-19 | 33.29 | 0.50 | 662.91 |
| 2025-11-18 | 31.86 | 0.47 | 660.35 |
| 2025-11-17 | 33.15 | 0.50 | 667.18 |
| 2025-11-14 | 41.77 | 0.72 | 670.28 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 683.39
Latest SMA: 672.9
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 654.41
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 691.4
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 10.62
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 82410264.07
Today's volume: 49212030.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.6
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 672.96
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 575.6 on 2025-05-23 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 79318533 | 1.49 | 118178899 |
| 2025-10-31 | 76522628 | 1.42 | 108765577 |
| 2025-10-15 | 78477131 | 1.25 | 97853277 |
| 2025-09-30 | 80850698 | 1.41 | 114193765 |
| 2025-09-15 | 71699100 | 1.56 | 111615053 |
| 2025-08-29 | 62857355 | 1.81 | 113532927 |
| 2025-08-15 | 72324072 | 1.61 | 116795786 |
| 2025-07-31 | 70406427 | 1.59 | 112116988 |
| 2025-07-15 | 63497368 | 1.78 | 113295755 |
| 2025-06-30 | 80743529 | 1.45 | 116685530 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits clear signs of a late-cycle expansion, characterized by a resilient but cooling labor market and a consumer under moderate pressure. The Growth Pulse is softening: the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.4% from a 3-year low of 3.4%, and while Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales are at cycle highs, their growth momentum is slowing. The Labor Force Participation Rate remains stagnant, and the Personal Savings Rate of 4.6% is near the lower end of its 3-year range, suggesting consumers are depleting buffers to maintain spending.
On the Inflation & Fed Stance front, disinflation is progressing but remains incomplete. The Core PCE (126.7) and CPI (324.37) continue to make new highs, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve has begun to ease, with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.09% down from 5.33%, and the balance sheet is contracting (Assets at $6.55T from a $8.73T peak), indicating a shift from quantitative tightening towards a more neutral stance.
The Market Context is one of elevated valuation and cautious optimism. The Buffett Indicator at 224% signals extreme overvaluation. However, the yield curve has steepened out of inversion (10Y-2Y at 0.55%), a positive signal, and the VIX at 16.35 reflects subdued fear. The recent positive SOFR-IORB spread suggests some overnight funding stress, but it has moderated from its peak.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 224.16% is deeply into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp correction.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The Unemployment Rate has increased by a full percentage point from its 3-year low, signaling a potential inflection point in the economic cycle.
-
Risk: Consumer Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The Personal Savings Rate is low (4.6%) while Retail Sales are at a peak, indicating spending may be unsustainable without a rebound in income or savings.
-
Risk: Stubbornly High Inflation
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Core PCE and CPI are still making new cycle highs, which could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates aggressively if inflation proves sticky.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Short- to Medium-Term (1-6 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: 50-day EMA (~667.24) and the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band (654.41). A break below 650.85 (recent low) would be a significant bearish signal.
- Next Resistance: The all-time high and Bollinger Upper Band at ~689.70 - 691.40.
- Brief Rationale: The technical picture shows SPY recovering from oversold conditions (RSI rebounding from ~35) and the MACD histogram turning positive, suggesting near-term momentum has improved. However, this occurs against a late-cycle macro backdrop with high valuations, recommending a cautious "Hold" stance rather than new aggressive buying. The path of least resistance is likely range-bound between 655 and 690.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: A range-bound strategy is preferred. Traders should look to sell into strength near resistance (~689) and buy on dips towards key support (665-655), using indicators like RSI and Bollinger Bands for timing. The low ADX (10.62) confirms a lack of a strong trend.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline and rebalance. This is not the time for speculative deployment. Investors should stick to their asset allocation plans, trim winners if positions are overweight, and dollar-cost average any new capital cautiously. Holding a slightly elevated cash position is prudent to wait for better entry points.