Macro Econ 2025-12-08
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4% to 4.4%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 4.4%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.4%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.6M on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 159.1M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 154.8M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 733.3B on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 711.5B to 733.3B
2 year data range: 680.5B to 733.3B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 733.3B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.7% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.7% to 5.7%
2 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
3 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 324.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 319.1 to 324.4
2 year data range: 309.8 to 324.4
3 year data range: 300.5 to 324.4
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 124.6 to 127
2 year data range: 121.2 to 127
3 year data range: 117.5 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 257.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 251.3 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.9% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.9% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.5T on 2025-12-03
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.9T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2025-12-05
1 year data range: 0.1% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.4% on 2025-12-05
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.4%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.4%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.4%
US Dollar Index: 98.99
Current VIX: 15.41
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 224.89%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | 2 |
| 2025-12-03 | 5 |
| 2025-12-02 | 11 |
| 2025-12-01 | 22 |
| 2025-11-28 | 22 |
| 2025-11-27 | nan |
| 2025-11-26 | 15 |
| 2025-11-25 | 11 |
| 2025-11-24 | 6 |
| 2025-11-21 | 3 |
| 2025-11-20 | 1 |
| 2025-11-19 | 1 |
| 2025-11-18 | 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | 10 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 667.96
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 650.85
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 664.48
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 658.75
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 658.85
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 647.89
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $685.69
5-Day Range: $678.74 - $688.39
50-Day Range: $650.85 - $689.70
200-Day Range: $479.05 - $689.70
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-12-08
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 1.68 | 3.31 | 1.63 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1.65 | 2.86 | 1.21 |
| 2025-12-03 | 1.57 | 2.37 | 0.80 |
| 2025-12-02 | 1.36 | 1.76 | 0.40 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 0.06 |
| 2025-11-28 | 0.82 | 0.60 | -0.22 |
| 2025-11-26 | -0.08 | -0.50 | -0.42 |
| 2025-11-25 | -1.11 | -1.52 | -0.41 |
| 2025-11-24 | -2.19 | -2.32 | -0.13 |
| 2025-11-21 | -3.09 | -2.67 | 0.42 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 670.14 |
| 2025-12-04 | 669.51 |
| 2025-12-03 | 668.90 |
| 2025-12-02 | 668.29 |
| 2025-12-01 | 667.75 |
| 2025-11-28 | 667.24 |
| 2025-11-26 | 666.58 |
| 2025-11-25 | 666.04 |
| 2025-11-24 | 665.68 |
| 2025-11-21 | 665.55 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 631.47 |
| 2025-12-04 | 630.92 |
| 2025-12-03 | 630.38 |
| 2025-12-02 | 629.85 |
| 2025-12-01 | 629.33 |
| 2025-11-28 | 628.82 |
| 2025-11-26 | 628.27 |
| 2025-11-25 | 627.75 |
| 2025-11-24 | 627.28 |
| 2025-11-21 | 626.86 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 60.18 |
| 2025-12-04 | 59.24 |
| 2025-12-03 | 58.89 |
| 2025-12-02 | 57.29 |
| 2025-12-01 | 56.45 |
| 2025-11-28 | 59.12 |
| 2025-11-26 | 56.87 |
| 2025-11-25 | 53.90 |
| 2025-11-24 | 49.56 |
| 2025-11-21 | 41.68 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 74.98
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 74.98 | 3.00 | 686.22 |
| 2025-12-04 | 57.54 | 1.36 | 683.70 |
| 2025-12-03 | 59.07 | 1.44 | 682.83 |
| 2025-12-02 | 49.03 | 0.96 | 681.56 |
| 2025-12-01 | 40.75 | 0.69 | 680.67 |
| 2025-11-28 | 39.28 | 0.65 | 682.52 |
| 2025-11-26 | 32.26 | 0.48 | 679.37 |
| 2025-11-25 | 31.63 | 0.46 | 671.90 |
| 2025-11-24 | 30.16 | 0.43 | 666.79 |
| 2025-11-21 | 29.93 | 0.43 | 658.14 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 685.69
Latest SMA: 674.26
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 654.24
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 694.29
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 58.65
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 81.2M
Today's volume: 79.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.98
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 674.35
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 575.6 on 2025-05-23 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 79.3M | 1.49 | 118.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 76.5M | 1.42 | 108.8M |
| 2025-10-15 | 78.5M | 1.25 | 97.9M |
| 2025-09-30 | 80.9M | 1.41 | 114.2M |
| 2025-09-15 | 71.7M | 1.56 | 111.6M |
| 2025-08-29 | 62.9M | 1.81 | 113.5M |
| 2025-08-15 | 72.3M | 1.61 | 116.8M |
| 2025-07-31 | 70.4M | 1.59 | 112.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 63.5M | 1.78 | 113.3M |
| 2025-06-30 | 80.7M | 1.45 | 116.7M |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits hallmarks of a late-cycle expansion. The growth pulse is slowing but remains positive: payrolls have plateaued near record highs (159.6M), while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from recent lows, signaling a cooling labor market. Consumer health is mixed; retail sales continue to climb (733.3B), but the personal savings rate is low at 4.7%, suggesting spending is being sustained by drawing down buffers rather than income growth. Inflation & the Fed stance show a moderating trend. The Core PCE (127) and CPI (324.4) are rising but at a decelerating pace, allowing the Fed to hold the Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.9%. The Fed's balance sheet has stabilized around 6.5T, indicating a pause in quantitative tightening. The market context is one of elevated valuation and cautious optimism. The Buffett Indicator at ~224% signals extreme overvaluation. However, the yield curve has steepened out of inversion (10Y-2Y at +0.6%), recession fears have receded, and the VIX at 15.41 reflects subdued near-term volatility. The recent spike in the SOFR-IORB spread (to 22 bps) has normalized, indicating transient, not systemic, funding stress.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 224.9% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, limiting long-term return potential and increasing vulnerability to negative shocks.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market Momentum
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen 40 bps over the past year to 4.4%, and payroll growth has stalled, indicating the robust job market is losing steam.
-
Risk: Consumer Resilience on Thin Cushions
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate of 4.7% is near multi-year lows, making continued strong retail sales growth vulnerable to any income or confidence shock.
-
Risk: Fed Policy Error (Overtightening or Premature Easing)
- Severity: Low
- Rationale: With inflation still above target and the labor market cooling, the Fed faces a complex calibration challenge, though current steady policy appears appropriate.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~670.14) and the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band (~654.24) confluence.
- Next Resistance: The recent high and all-time high at ~$689.70, aligning with the Bollinger Upper Band (~694.29).
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of slowing but positive growth and a patient Fed supports equities but does not justify aggressive buying at record highs. Technically, SPY is in a strong uptrend (ADX 58.65, price above all key EMAs) but is testing major resistance. Momentum is positive (MACD bullish, RSI ~60), but the MFI at 74.98 suggests short-term overbought conditions. The prudent stance is to hold existing positions while awaiting either a breakout above resistance or a pullback to support for a better risk/reward entry.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy within the ~654-690 channel. Fade moves toward the upper Bollinger Band with tight stops and consider buying dips toward the 50-day EMA, especially on oversold RSI/MFI readings. The strong trend (high ADX) favors buying pullbacks over chasing breakouts.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain strategic allocations but avoid new lump-sum investments at these valuation levels. This is an environment to rebalance portfolios, trimming winners that have exceeded target weights. Continue disciplined dollar-cost averaging into broad market funds, as the long-term trend remains up, but hold a slightly elevated cash reserve for future opportunities should volatility increase.