Macro Econ 2025-12-14
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4% to 4.4%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 4.4%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.4%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.6M on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 159.1M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 154.8M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 733.3B on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 711.5B to 733.3B
2 year data range: 680.5B to 733.3B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 733.3B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.7% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.7% to 5.7%
2 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
3 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 324.4 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 319.1 to 324.4
2 year data range: 309.8 to 324.4
3 year data range: 300.5 to 324.4
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 124.6 to 127
2 year data range: 121.2 to 127
3 year data range: 117.5 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 257.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 251.3 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.9% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.9% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.5T on 2025-12-10
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.9T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2025-12-12
1 year data range: 0.1% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2025-12-12
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 98.39
Current VIX: 15.74
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 226.26%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | 1 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 3 |
| 2025-12-08 | 5 |
| 2025-12-05 | 3 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2 |
| 2025-12-03 | 5 |
| 2025-12-02 | 11 |
| 2025-12-01 | 22 |
| 2025-11-28 | 22 |
| 2025-11-27 | nan |
| 2025-11-26 | 15 |
| 2025-11-25 | 11 |
| 2025-11-24 | 6 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 667.96
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 650.85
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 676.72
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 658.75
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 660.20
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 648.57
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $681.76
5-Day Range: $679.17 - $689.25
50-Day Range: $650.85 - $689.70
200-Day Range: $479.05 - $689.70
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-12-14
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 0.73 | 3.84 | 3.11 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1.28 | 4.20 | 2.93 |
| 2025-12-10 | 1.24 | 3.85 | 2.61 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1.20 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1.47 | 3.47 | 2.00 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1.68 | 3.31 | 1.63 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1.65 | 2.86 | 1.21 |
| 2025-12-03 | 1.57 | 2.37 | 0.80 |
| 2025-12-02 | 1.36 | 1.76 | 0.40 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 0.06 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 672.84 |
| 2025-12-11 | 672.48 |
| 2025-12-10 | 671.80 |
| 2025-12-09 | 671.16 |
| 2025-12-08 | 670.67 |
| 2025-12-05 | 670.14 |
| 2025-12-04 | 669.51 |
| 2025-12-03 | 668.90 |
| 2025-12-02 | 668.29 |
| 2025-12-01 | 667.75 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 634.13 |
| 2025-12-11 | 633.65 |
| 2025-12-10 | 633.09 |
| 2025-12-09 | 632.54 |
| 2025-12-08 | 632.04 |
| 2025-12-05 | 631.52 |
| 2025-12-04 | 630.97 |
| 2025-12-03 | 630.44 |
| 2025-12-02 | 629.90 |
| 2025-12-01 | 629.38 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 53.56 |
| 2025-12-11 | 62.17 |
| 2025-12-10 | 60.91 |
| 2025-12-09 | 57.16 |
| 2025-12-08 | 57.83 |
| 2025-12-05 | 60.12 |
| 2025-12-04 | 59.17 |
| 2025-12-03 | 58.83 |
| 2025-12-02 | 57.22 |
| 2025-12-01 | 56.38 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 60.14
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 60.14 | 1.51 | 683.27 |
| 2025-12-11 | 73.46 | 2.77 | 686.86 |
| 2025-12-10 | 72.84 | 2.68 | 685.95 |
| 2025-12-09 | 72.57 | 2.65 | 683.67 |
| 2025-12-08 | 82.30 | 4.65 | 683.95 |
| 2025-12-05 | 74.98 | 3.00 | 686.22 |
| 2025-12-04 | 57.54 | 1.36 | 683.70 |
| 2025-12-03 | 59.07 | 1.44 | 682.83 |
| 2025-12-02 | 49.03 | 0.96 | 681.56 |
| 2025-12-01 | 40.75 | 0.69 | 680.67 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 681.76
Latest SMA: 675.98
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 654.27
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 697.7
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 49.33
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 82.4M
Today's volume: 113.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.37
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 675.85
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 578.43 on 2025-05-27 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 96.8M | 1.15 | 111.6M |
| 2025-11-14 | 79.3M | 1.49 | 118.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 76.5M | 1.42 | 108.8M |
| 2025-10-15 | 78.5M | 1.25 | 97.9M |
| 2025-09-30 | 80.9M | 1.41 | 114.2M |
| 2025-09-15 | 71.7M | 1.56 | 111.6M |
| 2025-08-29 | 62.9M | 1.81 | 113.5M |
| 2025-08-15 | 72.3M | 1.61 | 116.8M |
| 2025-07-31 | 70.4M | 1.59 | 112.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 63.5M | 1.78 | 113.3M |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits signs of a late-cycle expansion, characterized by a cooling but resilient labor market, robust consumer spending, and persistent inflation. The Growth Pulse is solid but slowing: nonfarm payrolls have reached a new high (159.6M), but the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from recent lows, and labor force participation remains subdued. Consumer health is strong, with retail sales at record highs, though the personal savings rate has declined to a low 4.7%, suggesting spending may be nearing its limits. Inflation & Fed Stance show a mixed picture: while CPI and Core PCE continue to rise, the pace has moderated from prior peaks. The Fed has paused its hiking cycle (Fed Funds at 3.9%) and its balance sheet has stabilized near 6.5T, indicating a shift from aggressive tightening to a watchful hold. The Market Context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 226.3%) and complacent sentiment (VIX at 15.7), but with a supportive liquidity backdrop (SOFR-IORB spread minimal) and a positively sloped yield curve (10-2Y spread at 0.7%), which historically negates near-term recession signals.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 226.3% is deep into historical "severely overvalued" territory, indicating a structurally vulnerable market.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market Momentum
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen 40 bps over the past year to 4.4%, signaling a potential inflection point in the jobs cycle.
-
Risk: Consumer Spending Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate has fallen to 4.7%, a multi-year low, leaving households with a diminished buffer to sustain current spending levels.
-
Risk: Sticky Inflation Preventing Fed Easing
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Core PCE continues to grind higher (127.0), which may keep the Federal Reserve in a restrictive stance for longer than markets anticipate.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~672.8) and the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band (~654.3) represent near-term and intermediate-term support, respectively.
- Next Resistance: The recent high and 50-day range ceiling at ~$689.7 is the immediate resistance to watch.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of late-cycle growth and high valuation argues against aggressive new long positions. However, the technical picture remains constructive, with price above key moving averages (681.76 > 50-day EMA 672.8 > 200-day EMA 634.1), a positive MACD, and a neutral RSI (53.6). This suggests the uptrend is intact but mature, favoring a hold for existing positions while awaiting a better risk/reward entry point.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between key support (~654-673) and resistance (~690). Use overbought conditions near the range top to take profits and oversold conditions near the 50-day EMA or Bollinger Lower Band to add exposure cautiously.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline through rebalancing. Trim equity exposure back to target allocations given extreme valuations. Use new cash flows to dollar-cost average into the market, but consider building a larger-than-usual cash reserve to deploy during a future, valuation-driven correction.