Macro Econ 2025-12-21
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.6% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 4% to 4.6%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 4.6%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.6%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.6M on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 159.1M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 154.8M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732.6B on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 711.5B to 732.6B
2 year data range: 680.5B to 732.6B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 732.6B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.7% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.7% to 5.7%
2 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
3 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 325 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 319.1 to 325
2 year data range: 309.8 to 325
3 year data range: 300.5 to 325
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 124.6 to 127
2 year data range: 121.2 to 127
3 year data range: 117.5 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 257.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 251.3 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.9% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.9% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2025-12-17
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.9T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2025-12-19
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.5% on 2025-12-19
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 98.72
Current VIX: 14.91
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-04-01: 223.79%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | 1 |
| 2025-12-17 | 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | 10 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 3 |
| 2025-12-08 | 5 |
| 2025-12-05 | 3 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2 |
| 2025-12-03 | 5 |
| 2025-12-02 | 11 |
| 2025-12-01 | 22 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 676.27
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 648.93
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 672.91
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 662.52
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 665.87
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 657.56
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $680.59
5-Day Range: $669.22 - $683.74
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $687.67
200-Day Range: $477.64 - $687.67
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-12-21
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | -0.91 | 1.46 | 2.37 |
| 2025-12-18 | -1.12 | 1.48 | 2.60 |
| 2025-12-17 | -0.98 | 1.90 | 2.88 |
| 2025-12-16 | -0.20 | 2.93 | 3.13 |
| 2025-12-15 | 0.26 | 3.44 | 3.18 |
| 2025-12-12 | 0.73 | 3.84 | 3.11 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1.28 | 4.20 | 2.93 |
| 2025-12-10 | 1.24 | 3.85 | 2.61 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1.20 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1.47 | 3.47 | 2.00 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 673.71 |
| 2025-12-18 | 673.42 |
| 2025-12-17 | 673.30 |
| 2025-12-16 | 673.38 |
| 2025-12-15 | 673.15 |
| 2025-12-12 | 672.84 |
| 2025-12-11 | 672.48 |
| 2025-12-10 | 671.80 |
| 2025-12-09 | 671.15 |
| 2025-12-08 | 670.67 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 636.28 |
| 2025-12-18 | 635.83 |
| 2025-12-17 | 635.42 |
| 2025-12-16 | 635.06 |
| 2025-12-15 | 634.62 |
| 2025-12-12 | 634.16 |
| 2025-12-11 | 633.68 |
| 2025-12-10 | 633.12 |
| 2025-12-09 | 632.57 |
| 2025-12-08 | 632.07 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 52.56 |
| 2025-12-18 | 48.68 |
| 2025-12-17 | 43.37 |
| 2025-12-16 | 50.51 |
| 2025-12-15 | 52.51 |
| 2025-12-12 | 53.60 |
| 2025-12-11 | 62.24 |
| 2025-12-10 | 60.98 |
| 2025-12-09 | 57.23 |
| 2025-12-08 | 57.90 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 41.17
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 41.17 | 0.70 | 679.38 |
| 2025-12-18 | 39.65 | 0.66 | 677.37 |
| 2025-12-17 | 36.45 | 0.57 | 674.34 |
| 2025-12-16 | 45.86 | 0.85 | 678.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 57.77 | 1.37 | 681.91 |
| 2025-12-12 | 60.14 | 1.51 | 683.27 |
| 2025-12-11 | 73.46 | 2.77 | 686.86 |
| 2025-12-10 | 72.84 | 2.68 | 685.95 |
| 2025-12-09 | 72.57 | 2.65 | 683.67 |
| 2025-12-08 | 82.30 | 4.65 | 683.95 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 680.59
Latest SMA: 679.74
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 665.78
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 693.71
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 21.45
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 87.5M
Today's volume: 103.6M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.18
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 679.35
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 591.05 on 2025-06-05 (UTC)
Last High: 689.7 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 640.64, 38.2%: 610.28, 50.0%: 585.75, 61.8%: 561.22, 78.6%: 526.29
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 585.75
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 96.8M | 1.15 | 111.6M |
| 2025-11-14 | 79.3M | 1.49 | 118.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 76.5M | 1.42 | 108.8M |
| 2025-10-15 | 78.5M | 1.25 | 97.9M |
| 2025-09-30 | 80.9M | 1.41 | 114.2M |
| 2025-09-15 | 71.7M | 1.56 | 111.6M |
| 2025-08-29 | 62.9M | 1.81 | 113.5M |
| 2025-08-15 | 72.3M | 1.61 | 116.8M |
| 2025-07-31 | 70.4M | 1.59 | 112.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 63.5M | 1.78 | 113.3M |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits a late-cycle expansion characterized by resilient but cooling growth, persistent inflation, and a restrictive Federal Reserve. The Growth Pulse is mixed: the labor market remains tight (UNRATE at 4.6%, up from recent lows; PAYEMS at a record high) and consumer spending is robust (Retail Sales at a 3-year high), but the savings rate is low (4.7%) and labor force participation is stagnant, suggesting limited slack for further organic growth. Inflation & Fed Stance show a sticky trend, with CPI and Core PCE at multi-year highs. The Fed has paused its hiking cycle (Fed Funds at 3.9%) but remains restrictive, with a balance sheet (6.6T) still elevated but contracting from peaks, indicating ongoing quantitative tightening. The Market Context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 223.8%) and complacent sentiment (VIX at 14.9), though the yield curve has steepened out of inversion (10Y-2Y at +0.7%), reducing a key recession signal. Overnight funding stress is minimal (SOFR-IORB spread near zero), indicating ample systemic liquidity.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 223.8% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a significant correction if earnings growth disappoints or discount rates rise.
-
Risk: Sticky Inflation Delaying Fed Easing
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Core PCE and CPI remain at elevated multi-year highs, which could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than markets anticipate, pressuring valuations.
-
Risk: Consumer Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate is near its 3-year low (4.7%) while retail spending is at a peak, indicating limited dry powder for consumers to sustain current spending levels amid high rates.
-
Risk: Low Market Volatility & Complacency
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The VIX at 14.9 reflects subdued fear, which often coincides with market tops, and may amplify the impact of any negative catalyst.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~$673.71) and the Bollinger Lower Band (~$665.78) represent immediate and stronger support, respectively.
- Next Resistance: The recent high of ~$687.67 and the Bollinger Upper Band (~$693.71).
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of a late-cycle expansion with high valuations argues against aggressive buying, but the market's technical structure remains intact with price above key moving averages (50-day & 200-day EMA) and within a defined range. Momentum is waning (negative MACD histogram, RSI ~52, MFI ~41), suggesting a lack of immediate bullish thrust, but not yet signaling a breakdown.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between ~$666 (Bollinger Lower Band) and ~$694 (Bollinger Upper Band/prior highs). Fade moves toward the extremes, as momentum indicators (MACD, RSI, MFI) suggest a lack of strong directional trend (ADX 21.45).
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline and rebalance. This is not an environment for deploying large cash reserves. Investors should ensure portfolios are aligned with target allocations, trimming winners if overexposed to U.S. large-cap equities given extreme valuations, and consider dollar-cost averaging any new investments cautiously.