Macro Econ 2025-12-29
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.6% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 4% to 4.6%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 4.6%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.6%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.6M on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 159.1M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 154.8M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732.6B on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 711.5B to 732.6B
2 year data range: 680.5B to 732.6B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 732.6B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4.7% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4.7% to 5.7%
2 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
3 year data range: 4.3% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 325 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 319.1 to 325
2 year data range: 309.8 to 325
3 year data range: 300.5 to 325
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 124.6 to 127
2 year data range: 121.2 to 127
3 year data range: 117.5 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 257.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 251.3 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.9% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.9% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.9% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2025-12-17
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.9T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2025-12-26
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.5% on 2025-12-26
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 98.0
Current VIX: 13.6
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 222.22%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | 1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1 |
| 2025-12-17 | 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | 10 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 3 |
| 2025-12-08 | 5 |
| 2025-12-05 | 3 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 679.32
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 669.22
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 676.74
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 672.99
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 674.27
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 669.58
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $690.31
5-Day Range: $676.47 - $691.66
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $691.66
200-Day Range: $477.64 - $691.66
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2025-12-29
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 3.16 | 2.52 | 0.64 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 0.42 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2.24 | 2.25 | -0.01 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1.77 | 2.25 | -0.48 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1.46 | 2.37 | -0.91 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1.48 | 2.60 | -1.12 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1.90 | 2.88 | -0.98 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2.93 | 3.13 | -0.20 |
| 2025-12-15 | 3.44 | 3.17 | 0.26 |
| 2025-12-12 | 3.84 | 3.11 | 0.73 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 675.89 |
| 2025-12-24 | 675.30 |
| 2025-12-23 | 674.68 |
| 2025-12-22 | 674.14 |
| 2025-12-19 | 673.71 |
| 2025-12-18 | 673.43 |
| 2025-12-17 | 673.30 |
| 2025-12-16 | 673.38 |
| 2025-12-15 | 673.16 |
| 2025-12-12 | 672.85 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 638.33 |
| 2025-12-24 | 637.81 |
| 2025-12-23 | 637.28 |
| 2025-12-22 | 636.77 |
| 2025-12-19 | 636.29 |
| 2025-12-18 | 635.84 |
| 2025-12-17 | 635.43 |
| 2025-12-16 | 635.07 |
| 2025-12-15 | 634.63 |
| 2025-12-12 | 634.17 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 60.58 |
| 2025-12-24 | 60.67 |
| 2025-12-23 | 58.77 |
| 2025-12-22 | 56.23 |
| 2025-12-19 | 52.56 |
| 2025-12-18 | 48.68 |
| 2025-12-17 | 43.38 |
| 2025-12-16 | 50.51 |
| 2025-12-15 | 52.51 |
| 2025-12-12 | 53.60 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 49.61
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 690.41 | 0.98 | 49.61 |
| 2025-12-24 | 689.67 | 1.09 | 52.09 |
| 2025-12-23 | 686.68 | 1.19 | 54.41 |
| 2025-12-22 | 683.59 | 0.92 | 47.91 |
| 2025-12-19 | 679.38 | 0.70 | 41.17 |
| 2025-12-18 | 677.37 | 0.66 | 39.65 |
| 2025-12-17 | 674.34 | 0.57 | 36.45 |
| 2025-12-16 | 678.31 | 0.85 | 45.86 |
| 2025-12-15 | 681.91 | 1.37 | 57.77 |
| 2025-12-12 | 683.27 | 1.51 | 60.14 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 690.31
Latest SMA: 683.29
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 673.89
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 692.7
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 15.47
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 84.8M
Today's volume: 41.6M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.49
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 683.21
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 591.89 on 2025-06-23 (UTC)
Last High: 691.66 on 2025-12-26 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 642.13, 38.2%: 611.49, 50.0%: 586.73, 61.8%: 561.97, 78.6%: 526.71
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 586.73
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 116.8M | 72.3M | 1.61 |
| 2025-07-31 | 112.1M | 70.4M | 1.59 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits a late-cycle expansion characterized by resilient growth but clear signs of deceleration and persistent inflation. The Growth Pulse is slowing: the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% from recent lows, and nonfarm payroll growth has plateaued near its 1-year high, suggesting a cooling labor market. However, consumer health remains a relative bright spot, with retail sales at a multi-year high, though this is supported by a declining personal savings rate (4.7%), indicating consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending. The Inflation & Fed Stance remains the central narrative. While the Fed Funds Rate has been cut to 3.9%, core PCE and CPI continue to trend upward, signaling that inflation is sticky and not yet decisively beaten. The Fed's balance sheet remains elevated but is no longer expanding, indicating a neutral-to-contractionary liquidity stance. The Market Context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 222.2%) juxtaposed with calm sentiment (VIX at 13.6) and a positively sloped yield curve (10Y-2Y at +0.7%), which historically argues against an imminent recession but does not preclude a growth slowdown or valuation correction.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 222.2% is deep into historical "severely overvalued" territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a significant de-rating on any growth disappointment.
- Risk: Sticky Inflation Delaying Fed Easing
- Severity: High
- Rationale: Core PCE and CPI continue to make new highs, which could force the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer than markets expect, pressuring valuations.
- Risk: Consumer Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Retail sales strength is coinciding with a multi-year low in the personal savings rate (4.7%), suggesting spending is unsustainable without income acceleration.
- Risk: Liquidity Tightening
- Severity: Low (but rising)
- Rationale: The SOFR-IORB spread has shown intermittent spikes (e.g., 10 bps on Dec 15), indicating occasional pockets of funding stress as the Fed's balance sheet remains static.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~$675.89) and the Bollinger Lower Band (~$673.89) converge with the 20-day low ($669.22), forming a strong support zone.
- Next Resistance: The immediate resistance is the recent all-time high and Bollinger Upper Band at $691.66 - $692.70.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of late-cycle growth and sticky inflation supports a cautious, range-bound market rather than a sustained breakout. Technically, SPY is at the top of its Bollinger Band with RSI neutral (~60), suggesting near-term exhaustion after a strong run. The recommendation is to Hold existing positions, as the primary uptrend (price > 200D EMA) remains intact, but the risk/reward for new longs is poor at current levels.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: A range-bound strategy is preferred. Look to sell into strength near the $692 resistance and buy on dips toward the $670-$675 support confluence, using breaks of these levels for directional confirmation.
- For Long-Term Investors: Rebalance and diversify. Given extreme valuations, this is not an environment for aggressive new equity allocations. Maintain discipline by trimming winners that exceed target allocations and consider building cash reserves or adding to non-correlated assets (e.g., short-duration fixed income) to prepare for potential volatility and better entry points.