Macro Econ 2026-01-05
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.6% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.6%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.6%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.6%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.6M on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 159.2M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.3M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732.6B on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 711.8B to 732.6B
2 year data range: 685.3B to 732.6B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 732.6B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 4% to 6.1%
3 year data range: 4% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 325 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 325
2 year data range: 311 to 325
3 year data range: 301.5 to 325
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 125.1 to 127
2 year data range: 121.5 to 127
3 year data range: 117.9 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.7% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.7% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2025-12-31
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.9T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2026-01-02
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.5% on 2026-01-02
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 98.57
Current VIX: 14.51
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 220.08%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 22 |
| 2025-12-30 | 6 |
| 2025-12-29 | 12 |
| 2025-12-26 | 11 |
| 2025-12-25 | nan |
| 2025-12-24 | 1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1 |
| 2025-12-17 | 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | 10 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 680.38
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 669.22
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 679.3
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 672.99
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 675.05
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 669.94
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $683.17
5-Day Range: $679.82 - $691.66
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $691.66
200-Day Range: $477.64 - $691.66
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-01-05
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 2.38 | 2.67 | -0.29 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.69 | 2.75 | -0.05 |
| 2025-12-30 | 3.17 | 2.76 | 0.41 |
| 2025-12-29 | 3.23 | 2.66 | 0.57 |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.16 | 2.51 | 0.64 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2.77 | 2.35 | 0.42 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2.24 | 2.25 | -0.01 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1.77 | 2.25 | -0.48 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1.46 | 2.37 | -0.91 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1.48 | 2.60 | -1.12 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 677.22 |
| 2025-12-31 | 676.98 |
| 2025-12-30 | 676.78 |
| 2025-12-29 | 676.36 |
| 2025-12-26 | 675.89 |
| 2025-12-24 | 675.30 |
| 2025-12-23 | 674.68 |
| 2025-12-22 | 674.14 |
| 2025-12-19 | 673.71 |
| 2025-12-18 | 673.43 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 640.11 |
| 2025-12-31 | 639.68 |
| 2025-12-30 | 639.25 |
| 2025-12-29 | 638.77 |
| 2025-12-26 | 638.28 |
| 2025-12-24 | 637.76 |
| 2025-12-23 | 637.23 |
| 2025-12-22 | 636.72 |
| 2025-12-19 | 636.24 |
| 2025-12-18 | 635.79 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 51.64 |
| 2025-12-31 | 50.26 |
| 2025-12-30 | 56.35 |
| 2025-12-29 | 57.42 |
| 2025-12-26 | 60.53 |
| 2025-12-24 | 60.62 |
| 2025-12-23 | 58.72 |
| 2025-12-22 | 56.17 |
| 2025-12-19 | 52.50 |
| 2025-12-18 | 48.60 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 60.93
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 683.29 | 1.56 | 60.93 |
| 2025-12-31 | 683.66 | 1.45 | 59.26 |
| 2025-12-30 | 687.38 | 1.25 | 55.64 |
| 2025-12-29 | 687.71 | 1.11 | 52.68 |
| 2025-12-26 | 690.41 | 0.98 | 49.61 |
| 2025-12-24 | 689.67 | 1.09 | 52.09 |
| 2025-12-23 | 686.68 | 1.19 | 54.41 |
| 2025-12-22 | 683.59 | 0.92 | 47.91 |
| 2025-12-19 | 679.38 | 0.70 | 41.17 |
| 2025-12-18 | 677.37 | 0.66 | 39.65 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 683.17
Latest SMA: 683.84
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 674.24
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 693.44
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 23.22
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 80.4M
Today's volume: 89.4M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.11
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 683.91
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 591.89 on 2025-06-23 (UTC)
Last High: 691.66 on 2025-12-26 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 642.13, 38.2%: 611.49, 50.0%: 586.73, 61.8%: 561.97, 78.6%: 526.71
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 586.73
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 116.8M | 72.3M | 1.61 |
| 2025-07-31 | 112.1M | 70.4M | 1.59 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits signs of a late-cycle expansion transitioning towards a potential slowdown. The growth pulse is cooling: while payrolls are at a multi-year high (159.6M), the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% from recent lows, and labor force participation remains subdued. Consumer spending (Retail Sales) is near record highs, but the personal savings rate has fallen to a low of 4%, indicating resilience is increasingly fueled by a drawdown of buffers rather than income growth. Inflation & Fed Stance show a moderating trend, with CPI and Core PCE still elevated but decelerating from prior peaks. The Fed has cut the policy rate to 3.7% and its balance sheet has contracted to $6.6T, signaling a shift from restrictive to more accommodative policy. The market context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 220.1%) and complacent sentiment (VIX at 14.5), despite a steepening yield curve (10Y-2Y spread at +0.7%) which suggests recession fears have receded for now. However, recent spikes in the SOFR-IORB spread hint at intermittent overnight funding stress.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 220.1% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a significant correction if earnings growth disappoints.
- Risk: Deteriorating Consumer Health
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate has collapsed to 4%, a multi-year low, suggesting consumer spending strength is unsustainable and vulnerable to any economic shock.
- Risk: Intermittent Liquidity Stress
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Recent spikes in the SOFR-IORB spread (e.g., 22 bps on 12/31) indicate periods of cash scarcity in the banking system, which can amplify market volatility.
- Risk: Labor Market Softening
- Severity: Low
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen 0.5-1.2 percentage points from recent lows, signaling the once-tight labor market is loosening, which could pressure corporate margins.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~$677.22) and the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band (~$674.24) form a crucial confluence zone.
- Next Resistance: The recent all-time high and 20-day Bollinger Upper Band at ~$691.66.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop suggests a maturing cycle with high valuations, warranting caution. Technically, SPY is consolidating near all-time highs after a strong uptrend, with momentum waning (MACD histogram negative, ADX at 23.22). The price is holding above key moving averages (50 & 200-day EMA), indicating the primary trend is still intact, but lacking the momentum for a clear breakout. A Hold stance is prudent until the market decisively breaks above resistance or below the key support cluster.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between ~$674 and ~$692. Fade moves toward the range extremes, using the MACD and RSI for timing. Be prepared for a breakout in either direction, with a break below the 50-day EMA signaling a deeper pullback.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline and rebalance. This is not the time for aggressive new allocations. Investors overweight equities should consider trimming into strength to align with target allocations. Continue dollar-cost averaging into diversified portfolios, but maintain a slightly elevated cash position to take advantage of potential future volatility.