Macro Econ 2026-01-12
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.5M on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 159.2M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.3M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 732.6B on 2025-10-01
1 year data range: 711.8B to 732.6B
2 year data range: 685.3B to 732.6B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 732.6B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 4% to 6.1%
3 year data range: 4% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 325 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 325
2 year data range: 311 to 325
3 year data range: 301.5 to 325
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 125.1 to 127
2 year data range: 121.5 to 127
3 year data range: 117.9 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 262.3 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.7% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.7% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-01-07
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-01-09
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-01-09
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 98.92, up 0.65% from a week ago.
Current VIX: 14.49, up 1.12% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 223.99%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | -1 |
| 2026-01-07 | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 |
| 2026-01-05 | 5 |
| 2026-01-02 | 10 |
| 2026-01-01 | nan |
| 2025-12-31 | 22 |
| 2025-12-30 | 6 |
| 2025-12-29 | 12 |
| 2025-12-26 | 11 |
| 2025-12-25 | nan |
| 2025-12-24 | 1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 680.38
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 669.22
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 679.82
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 672.99
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 675.91
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 669.72
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $694.07
5-Day Range: $686.38 - $695.31
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $695.31
200-Day Range: $477.64 - $695.31
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-01-12
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 0.42 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2.95 | 2.77 | 0.18 |
| 2026-01-07 | 2.93 | 2.73 | 0.20 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.85 | 2.68 | 0.17 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2.48 | 2.63 | -0.16 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2.38 | 2.67 | -0.29 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.69 | 2.75 | -0.05 |
| 2025-12-30 | 3.17 | 2.76 | 0.41 |
| 2025-12-29 | 3.23 | 2.66 | 0.57 |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.16 | 2.51 | 0.64 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 679.65 |
| 2026-01-08 | 679.06 |
| 2026-01-07 | 678.63 |
| 2026-01-06 | 678.19 |
| 2026-01-05 | 677.63 |
| 2026-01-02 | 677.22 |
| 2025-12-31 | 676.98 |
| 2025-12-30 | 676.78 |
| 2025-12-29 | 676.36 |
| 2025-12-26 | 675.89 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 642.63 |
| 2026-01-08 | 642.11 |
| 2026-01-07 | 641.64 |
| 2026-01-06 | 641.15 |
| 2026-01-05 | 640.64 |
| 2026-01-02 | 640.17 |
| 2025-12-31 | 639.74 |
| 2025-12-30 | 639.31 |
| 2025-12-29 | 638.84 |
| 2025-12-26 | 638.34 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 61.58 |
| 2026-01-08 | 57.17 |
| 2026-01-07 | 57.27 |
| 2026-01-06 | 60.19 |
| 2026-01-05 | 56.40 |
| 2026-01-02 | 51.65 |
| 2025-12-31 | 50.27 |
| 2025-12-30 | 56.36 |
| 2025-12-29 | 57.42 |
| 2025-12-26 | 60.54 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 50.25
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 692.85 | 1.01 | 50.25 |
| 2026-01-08 | 689.20 | 0.89 | 47.03 |
| 2026-01-07 | 690.95 | 1.33 | 57.17 |
| 2026-01-06 | 690.63 | 1.31 | 56.71 |
| 2026-01-05 | 687.84 | 1.43 | 58.85 |
| 2026-01-02 | 683.29 | 1.56 | 60.93 |
| 2025-12-31 | 683.66 | 1.45 | 59.26 |
| 2025-12-30 | 687.38 | 1.25 | 55.64 |
| 2025-12-29 | 687.71 | 1.11 | 52.68 |
| 2025-12-26 | 690.41 | 0.98 | 49.61 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 694.07
Latest SMA: 685.26
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 673.76
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 696.75
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 30.94
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 74.2M
Today's volume: 80.1M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.08
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 685.35
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 603.41 on 2025-06-24 (UTC)
Last High: 695.31 on 2026-01-09 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 644.92, 38.2%: 613.75, 50.0%: 588.55, 61.8%: 563.36, 78.6%: 527.49
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 613.75, 50.0%: 588.55
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 116.8M | 72.3M | 1.61 |
| 2025-07-31 | 112.1M | 70.4M | 1.59 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits signs of a late-cycle expansion transitioning toward a potential slowdown. The growth pulse is cooling: while payrolls are at a multi-year high (159.5M), the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from lows near 3.4%, and labor force participation remains subdued at 62.4%. Consumer spending (Retail Sales at $732.6B) is robust but may be pressured by a declining personal savings rate (4%, a multi-year low). Inflation & Fed Stance show a moderating trend, with CPI and Core PCE still elevated but off peaks. The Fed has significantly lowered the policy rate to 3.7% from over 5%, and its balance sheet has stabilized near $6.6T, indicating a shift from aggressive tightening to a more accommodative, watchful stance. The market context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 224%) juxtaposed with calm sentiment (VIX at 14.5) and a positively sloped yield curve (10y-2y spread at +0.6%), which suggests recession fears have receded for now. However, the recent uptick in the SOFR-IORB spread hints at transient funding pressures.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 223.99% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a significant correction if earnings growth disappoints or sentiment shifts.
- Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market Momentum
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen 100 bps from its cycle low to 4.4%, and payroll growth has stalled near its 1-year high, signaling a potential inflection in the jobs market.
- Risk: Depleted Consumer Savings Buffer
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate has fallen to 4%, the lowest level in the available 3-year data range, reducing the cushion for continued strong spending in the face of economic headwinds.
- Risk: Intermittent Funding Market Stress
- Severity: Low
- Rationale: The SOFR-IORB spread spiked to 22 bps at year-end, indicating episodic liquidity tightness, though it has since normalized, suggesting the issue is contained for now.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA (~$679.65), which has provided consistent dynamic support during the recent uptrend.
- Next Resistance: The all-time high/Bollinger Upper Band at ~$695.31 - $696.75.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop suggests a maturing cycle with high valuations, warranting caution against new aggressive long positions. Technically, SPY is at the top of its range, testing major resistance with momentum indicators (RSI ~61, MACD positive but histogram weakening) showing potential exhaustion. A confirmed breakout above $696 on strong volume could shift the view, but the risk/reward for new buys here is unfavorable.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between $680 (50-day EMA) and $696 (resistance), looking for a decisive breakout or breakdown for directional bias. The elevated ADX (30.94) suggests a trend is present, but proximity to key resistance favors patience.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain strategic allocations but avoid lump-sum investments at these levels. This is an environment to rebalance, ensuring portfolios are aligned with target risk levels, and to build a cash reserve for better entry points that may emerge if macro risks materialize. Dollar-cost averaging remains prudent.