Macro Econ 2026-01-19
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.5M on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 159.2M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.3M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735.9B on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 711.8B to 735.9B
2 year data range: 685.3B to 735.9B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.9B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 4% on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 4% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 4% to 6.1%
3 year data range: 4% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 326
2 year data range: 311 to 326
3 year data range: 301.5 to 326
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127 on 2025-09-01
1 year data range: 125.1 to 127
2 year data range: 121.5 to 127
3 year data range: 117.9 to 127
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 261.6 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.7% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.7% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-01-14
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.7T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2026-01-16
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-01-16
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 99.1, up 0.17% from a week ago.
Current VIX: 15.86, up 3.12% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 223.54%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | -1 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | -1 |
| 2026-01-09 | -1 |
| 2026-01-08 | -1 |
| 2026-01-07 | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 |
| 2026-01-05 | 5 |
| 2026-01-02 | 10 |
| 2026-01-01 | nan |
| 2025-12-31 | 22 |
| 2025-12-30 | 6 |
| 2025-12-29 | 12 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Distribution for SPY
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 686.47
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 672.91
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 683.87
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 680.59
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 680.67
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 675.61
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $691.66
5-Day Range: $686.04 - $696.09
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $696.09
200-Day Range: $477.64 - $696.09
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-01-19
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | 3.42 | 3.27 | 0.15 |
| 2026-01-14 | 3.49 | 3.23 | 0.26 |
| 2026-01-13 | 3.73 | 3.17 | 0.56 |
| 2026-01-12 | 3.63 | 3.03 | 0.60 |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 0.42 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2.95 | 2.77 | 0.18 |
| 2026-01-07 | 2.93 | 2.73 | 0.20 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.85 | 2.68 | 0.17 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2.48 | 2.63 | -0.16 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 681.99 |
| 2026-01-15 | 681.60 |
| 2026-01-14 | 681.16 |
| 2026-01-13 | 680.79 |
| 2026-01-12 | 680.26 |
| 2026-01-09 | 679.65 |
| 2026-01-08 | 679.06 |
| 2026-01-07 | 678.64 |
| 2026-01-06 | 678.19 |
| 2026-01-05 | 677.63 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 645.11 |
| 2026-01-15 | 644.64 |
| 2026-01-14 | 644.16 |
| 2026-01-13 | 643.69 |
| 2026-01-12 | 643.19 |
| 2026-01-09 | 642.67 |
| 2026-01-08 | 642.15 |
| 2026-01-07 | 641.68 |
| 2026-01-06 | 641.20 |
| 2026-01-05 | 640.69 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 56.57 |
| 2026-01-15 | 57.45 |
| 2026-01-14 | 55.36 |
| 2026-01-13 | 60.36 |
| 2026-01-12 | 62.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 61.51 |
| 2026-01-08 | 57.09 |
| 2026-01-07 | 57.19 |
| 2026-01-06 | 60.10 |
| 2026-01-05 | 56.31 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 58.12
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 692.00 | 1.39 | 58.12 |
| 2026-01-15 | 692.98 | 1.35 | 57.43 |
| 2026-01-14 | 689.37 | 0.91 | 47.51 |
| 2026-01-13 | 693.74 | 1.03 | 50.68 |
| 2026-01-12 | 693.96 | 1.08 | 51.87 |
| 2026-01-09 | 692.85 | 1.01 | 50.25 |
| 2026-01-08 | 689.20 | 0.89 | 47.03 |
| 2026-01-07 | 690.95 | 1.33 | 57.17 |
| 2026-01-06 | 690.63 | 1.31 | 56.71 |
| 2026-01-05 | 687.84 | 1.43 | 58.85 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 691.66
Latest SMA: 688.32
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 678.63
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 698.01
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 3.97
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 77.3M
Today's volume: 79.3M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.03
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 689.22
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 615.52 on 2025-07-01 (UTC)
Last High: 696.09 on 2026-01-13 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 645.52, 38.2%: 614.23, 50.0%: 588.95, 61.8%: 563.66, 78.6%: 527.66
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 614.23
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 116.8M | 72.3M | 1.61 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits characteristics of a late-cycle expansion. The growth pulse is slowing but remains positive: payrolls are at a multi-year high (159.5M) and retail sales are strong ($735.9B), yet the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from recent lows, and the personal savings rate has fallen to a multi-year low of 4%, suggesting consumer resilience may be waning. Inflation & Fed Stance show a moderating trend, with CPI and Core PCE still elevated but off peaks. The Fed has cut the policy rate to 3.7% and its balance sheet has contracted to $6.6T, indicating a shift from aggressive tightening to a more accommodative, watchful stance. The market context is one of extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at 223.5%) and complacency (VIX at 15.86), but with a supportive liquidity backdrop (SOFR-IORB spread near zero) and a positively sloped yield curve (10y-2y at +0.7%), which historically negates near-term recession signals.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 223.5% is deep into historical overvaluation territory, increasing vulnerability to any growth or sentiment shock.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Labor Market Momentum
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen 100 bps from its 3-year low to 4.4%, and payroll growth has stalled near its 1-year high, signaling a potential inflection in the jobs market.
-
Risk: Depleted Consumer Savings Buffer
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate has fallen to 4%, a multi-year low, leaving households with less of a cushion to sustain spending in the face of economic stress or inflation.
-
Risk: Complacent Market Sentiment
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: A low VIX (15.86) combined with extremely high valuations suggests investor complacency, which can amplify downside moves when risks materialize.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA at ~$682, which aligns with the Bollinger Lower Band (~$678.63) and the 20-day low distribution zone.
- Next Resistance: The recent high and all-time high at $696.09, which also coincides with the Bollinger Upper Band (~$698.01).
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop is late-cycle with high valuations, arguing against new aggressive buying. However, positive yield curves, falling rates, and ample liquidity provide a floor. Technically, SPY is consolidating near all-time highs with neutral momentum (RSI ~57, ADX very low at 3.97), suggesting a lack of clear directional trend. The prudent stance is to hold existing positions while awaiting a clearer macro or technical catalyst.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between $682 (50-day EMA/Bollinger Lower support) and $696 (resistance/high). Use oscillators like RSI and MFI to identify overbought/sold conditions within this range. The very low ADX confirms a non-trending environment suitable for such an approach.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain strategic allocations but avoid deploying significant new capital. This is an environment to rebalance portfolios, taking profits from equities that have exceeded targets and raising some cash. Continue disciplined dollar-cost averaging but be prepared for heightened volatility given the elevated risk profile.