Macro Econ 2026-01-25
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.5M on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 159.2M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.3M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735.9B on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 711.8B to 735.9B
2 year data range: 685.3B to 735.9B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.9B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.5% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.5% to 6.1%
3 year data range: 3.5% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 326
2 year data range: 311 to 326
3 year data range: 301.5 to 326
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.4 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 125.1 to 127.4
2 year data range: 121.5 to 127.4
3 year data range: 117.9 to 127.4
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 261.6 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.7% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.7% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-01-21
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.6T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-01-23
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.5% on 2026-01-23
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 97.6, a 1.54% drop from a week ago.
Current VIX: 16.09, up 0.69% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 222.65%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | -1 |
| 2026-01-21 | -2 |
| 2026-01-20 | -1 |
| 2026-01-19 | nan |
| 2026-01-16 | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | -1 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | -1 |
| 2026-01-09 | -1 |
| 2026-01-08 | -1 |
| 2026-01-07 | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 |
| 2026-01-05 | 5 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $689.23
5-Day Range: $676.57 - $694.25
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $696.09
200-Day Range: $484.94 - $696.09
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 682.23
Lowest price: 669.22
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 680.59
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 676.57
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 677.14
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 670.96
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-01-25
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 1.53 | 2.31 | -0.78 |
| 2026-01-22 | 1.56 | 2.50 | -0.94 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1.60 | 2.73 | -1.13 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2.00 | 3.02 | -1.02 |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | 3.42 | 3.27 | 0.15 |
| 2026-01-14 | 3.49 | 3.23 | 0.26 |
| 2026-01-13 | 3.73 | 3.17 | 0.56 |
| 2026-01-12 | 3.63 | 3.03 | 0.60 |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 0.42 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 682.51 |
| 2026-01-22 | 682.24 |
| 2026-01-21 | 681.96 |
| 2026-01-20 | 681.82 |
| 2026-01-16 | 681.99 |
| 2026-01-15 | 681.60 |
| 2026-01-14 | 681.16 |
| 2026-01-13 | 680.79 |
| 2026-01-12 | 680.26 |
| 2026-01-09 | 679.65 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 646.72 |
| 2026-01-22 | 646.29 |
| 2026-01-21 | 645.86 |
| 2026-01-20 | 645.46 |
| 2026-01-16 | 645.14 |
| 2026-01-15 | 644.67 |
| 2026-01-14 | 644.19 |
| 2026-01-13 | 643.73 |
| 2026-01-12 | 643.23 |
| 2026-01-09 | 642.71 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 52.70 |
| 2026-01-22 | 52.46 |
| 2026-01-21 | 49.04 |
| 2026-01-20 | 40.33 |
| 2026-01-16 | 56.46 |
| 2026-01-15 | 57.34 |
| 2026-01-14 | 55.25 |
| 2026-01-13 | 60.22 |
| 2026-01-12 | 62.35 |
| 2026-01-09 | 61.35 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 57.44
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 689.12 | 1.35 | 57.44 |
| 2026-01-22 | 689.01 | 1.00 | 50.00 |
| 2026-01-21 | 684.09 | 1.00 | 49.92 |
| 2026-01-20 | 679.64 | 0.86 | 46.31 |
| 2026-01-16 | 692.00 | 1.39 | 58.12 |
| 2026-01-15 | 692.98 | 1.35 | 57.43 |
| 2026-01-14 | 689.37 | 0.91 | 47.51 |
| 2026-01-13 | 693.74 | 1.03 | 50.68 |
| 2026-01-12 | 693.96 | 1.08 | 51.87 |
| 2026-01-09 | 692.85 | 1.01 | 50.25 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 689.23
Latest SMA: 688.89
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 680.28
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 697.5
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 4.13
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 81.5M
Today's volume: 63.1M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.77
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 688.85
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 618.05 on 2025-07-16 (UTC)
Last High: 696.09 on 2026-01-13 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 645.52, 38.2%: 614.23, 50.0%: 588.95, 61.8%: 563.66, 78.6%: 527.66
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 614.23
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 116.8M | 72.3M | 1.61 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy presents a mixed picture consistent with a late-cycle expansion transitioning towards a potential slowdown. The Growth Pulse is cooling: unemployment has risen to a three-year high of 4.4%, and payroll growth has effectively stalled over the past year, suggesting labor market softening. While consumer spending remains resilient with retail sales at a cycle high, this is supported by a depleted savings rate at a multi-year low of 3.5%, indicating fragile support for future consumption. On Inflation & Fed Stance, price pressures remain elevated (CPI 326, Core PCE 127.4) but may be plateauing based on recent ranges. The Federal Reserve has pivoted to an accommodative stance, having cut the Fed Funds rate to 3.7% and maintaining a stable balance sheet near $6.6T. The Market Context is one of extreme valuation and complacency: the Buffett Indicator (~223%) signals overvaluation, the VIX is subdued near 16, and the yield curve has normalized to a positive slope (10-2Y spread at +0.6%), discounting near-term recession fears. Ample overnight liquidity (SOFR-IORB near zero) provides a supportive technical backdrop.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at ~223% is significantly above historical norms, leaving the market vulnerable to a de-rating on any growth or earnings disappointment.
- Risk: Fragile Consumer Spending
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate at 3.5% is near its cyclical low, leaving households with little buffer if the labor market weakens further or inflation persists.
- Risk: Lagged Impact of Prior Monetary Tightening
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Despite recent rate cuts, the cumulative effect of prior aggressive Fed hiking could still slow economic activity and pressure corporate profitability.
- Risk: Complacent Market Sentiment
- Severity: Low
- Rationale: A low VIX (16.09) and positive yield curve suggest investors are discounting near-term volatility, which often precedes a shake-out.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: 50-day Exponential Moving Average (~$682.51) and the recent swing low near $676.57.
- Next Resistance: The recent high/all-time high at $696.09, followed by the Bollinger Upper Band at $697.5.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of slowing growth, high inflation, and extreme valuation argues against aggressive buying, but a dovish Fed pivot provides a valuation floor. Technically, SPY is in a strong long-term uptrend (price 200-day EMA) but shows waning short-term momentum (negative MACD histogram, weak ADX at 4.13) as it tests major resistance. The prudent action is to hold existing positions and await either a breakout above resistance with conviction or a pullback to stronger support levels for a better risk/reward entry.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy between ~$682 and $697. Fade extremes using RSI and Bollinger Bands, as the weak ADX suggests a lack of a strong directional trend.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline but build a cash reserve. Continue dollar-cost averaging into broad market ETFs, but given elevated valuations, consider rebalancing to target allocations and holding slightly above-average cash to deploy during any material market weakness.