Macro Econ 2026-02-01
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.5M on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 159.2M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.5M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.2M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735.9B on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 711.8B to 735.9B
2 year data range: 687.6B to 735.9B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.9B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.5% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.5% to 5.9%
3 year data range: 3.5% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 326
2 year data range: 312.1 to 326
3 year data range: 301.6 to 326
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.4 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 125.1 to 127.4
2 year data range: 122 to 127.4
3 year data range: 118.3 to 127.4
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 260.7 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.7% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.7% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.7% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-01-28
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.6T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2026-01-30
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-01-30
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 96.99, a 1.79% drop from a week ago.
Current VIX: 17.44, up 3.2% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 222.72%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | -1 |
| 2026-01-27 | 1 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1 |
| 2026-01-23 | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | -1 |
| 2026-01-21 | -2 |
| 2026-01-20 | -1 |
| 2026-01-19 | nan |
| 2026-01-16 | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | 1 |
| 2026-01-14 | -1 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | -1 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $691.97
5-Day Range: $684.83 - $697.84
50-Day Range: $648.93 - $697.84
200-Day Range: $504.07 - $697.84
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 685.8
Lowest price: 669.22
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 683.87
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 678.13
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 679.38
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 673.36
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-02-01
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2.36 | 2.30 | 0.06 |
| 2026-01-29 | 2.50 | 2.29 | 0.21 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2.42 | 2.24 | 0.19 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2.15 | 2.19 | -0.04 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1.77 | 2.20 | -0.43 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1.53 | 2.30 | -0.78 |
| 2026-01-22 | 1.56 | 2.50 | -0.94 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1.60 | 2.73 | -1.13 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2.00 | 3.02 | -1.02 |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0.00 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 684.57 |
| 2026-01-29 | 684.27 |
| 2026-01-28 | 683.87 |
| 2026-01-27 | 683.40 |
| 2026-01-26 | 682.91 |
| 2026-01-23 | 682.51 |
| 2026-01-22 | 682.23 |
| 2026-01-21 | 681.96 |
| 2026-01-20 | 681.82 |
| 2026-01-16 | 681.99 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 649.06 |
| 2026-01-29 | 648.63 |
| 2026-01-28 | 648.18 |
| 2026-01-27 | 647.70 |
| 2026-01-26 | 647.22 |
| 2026-01-23 | 646.76 |
| 2026-01-22 | 646.34 |
| 2026-01-21 | 645.91 |
| 2026-01-20 | 645.51 |
| 2026-01-16 | 645.19 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 53.98 |
| 2026-01-29 | 56.74 |
| 2026-01-28 | 58.60 |
| 2026-01-27 | 58.69 |
| 2026-01-26 | 56.21 |
| 2026-01-23 | 52.88 |
| 2026-01-22 | 52.65 |
| 2026-01-21 | 49.22 |
| 2026-01-20 | 40.50 |
| 2026-01-16 | 56.82 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 53.34
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 691.10 | 1.14 | 53.34 |
| 2026-01-29 | 691.98 | 1.82 | 64.56 |
| 2026-01-28 | 695.73 | 1.84 | 64.81 |
| 2026-01-27 | 695.20 | 1.27 | 55.99 |
| 2026-01-26 | 692.26 | 1.30 | 56.43 |
| 2026-01-23 | 689.12 | 1.35 | 57.44 |
| 2026-01-22 | 689.01 | 1.00 | 50.00 |
| 2026-01-21 | 684.09 | 1.00 | 49.92 |
| 2026-01-20 | 679.64 | 0.86 | 46.31 |
| 2026-01-16 | 692.00 | 1.39 | 58.12 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 691.97
Latest SMA: 690.49
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 681.55
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 699.44
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 26.34
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 77.4M
Today's volume: 101.8M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.32
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 690.26
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 618.05 on 2025-07-16 (UTC)
Last High: 697.84 on 2026-01-28 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 646.85, 38.2%: 615.31, 50.0%: 589.82, 61.8%: 564.33, 78.6%: 528.03
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 615.31
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 107.4M | 76.5M | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits late-cycle characteristics, with a resilient but softening growth pulse and persistent inflationary pressures. The Growth Pulse is moderating: nonfarm payrolls have plateaued near 159.5M, while the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4% from its cycle lows, suggesting a cooling labor market. Consumer health is mixed—advance retail sales are at a cyclical high, signaling continued spending, but the personal savings rate has collapsed to a low 3.5%, indicating financial strain and a drawdown of buffers. The Inflation & Fed Stance shows sticky inflation, with CPI and Core PCE continuing their steady ascent. The Federal Reserve appears to be on hold, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.7% and a stable balance sheet (~$6.6T), suggesting a cautious pause. Market Context is dominated by extreme valuation (Buffett Indicator at ~223%), while sentiment is cautiously complacent (VIX at 17.44). Notably, the yield curve (10y-2y at +0.7%) has steepened out of inversion, reducing a key recession signal, and overnight liquidity metrics (SOFR-IORB near zero) show no immediate funding stress.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator above 220% signals the market is severely overvalued relative to the size of the economy, increasing vulnerability to a significant correction.
-
Risk: Eroding Consumer Resilience
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate at a multi-year low of 3.5% suggests households are spending aggressively, leaving less cushion for an economic slowdown or renewed inflation.
-
Risk: Persistent "Sticky" Inflation
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: While off peaks, CPI and Core PCE continue to grind higher, which could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates and support markets if growth weakens meaningfully.
-
Risk: Labor Market Deterioration
- Severity: Low
- Rationale: The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from its low, and payroll growth has stalled, marking a potential inflection point from a robust to a softening job market.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA at ~$684.5, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band ($681.55) and the recent low-end of the 5-day range.
- Next Resistance: The recent all-time high at $697.84 (from 2026-01-28).
- Brief Rationale: The macroeconomic backdrop suggests a late-cycle environment with high valuations, favoring caution. Technically, SPY is consolidating near record highs with momentum waning (MACD histogram turning negative, RSI neutral at ~54). A hold stance is prudent until the market decisively breaks above resistance or below the 50-day EMA support, which would clarify the next directional move.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Favor a range-bound strategy between ~$682 and $698. Given the high valuation and mixed macro signals, look for mean-reversion trades near the extremes of the recent range, using the Bollinger Bands and key EMAs as guides. The subdued ADX (26.34) suggests a lack of strong trend.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline through dollar-cost averaging and rebalancing. Avoid making large, new lump-sum investments at these valuation levels. Use any significant market weakness toward the 200-day EMA (~$649) or key Fibonacci support levels (e.g., 38.2% at $615.31) as opportunities to incrementally increase equity exposure.