Macro Econ 2026-02-08
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 159.5M on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 159.3M to 159.6M
2 year data range: 157.5M to 159.6M
3 year data range: 155.2M to 159.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735.9B on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 716.1B to 735.9B
2 year data range: 687.6B to 735.9B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.9B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.4% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.5% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.5% to 5.9%
3 year data range: 3.5% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 319.6 to 326
2 year data range: 312.1 to 326
3 year data range: 301.6 to 326
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.4 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 125.3 to 127.4
2 year data range: 122 to 127.4
3 year data range: 118.3 to 127.4
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 260.7 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-02-04
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.6T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.7% on 2026-02-06
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.5% on 2026-02-06
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 97.63, up 1.22% from a week ago.
Current VIX: 20.37, up 24.59% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 223.08%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | 3 |
| 2026-01-29 | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | -1 |
| 2026-01-27 | 1 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1 |
| 2026-01-23 | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | -1 |
| 2026-01-21 | -2 |
| 2026-01-20 | -1 |
| 2026-01-19 | nan |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $690.62
5-Day Range: $675.79 - $696.96
50-Day Range: $662.52 - $697.84
200-Day Range: $529.27 - $697.84
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 687.75
Lowest price: 675.79
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 684.03
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 680.85
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 681.65
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 676.94
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-02-08
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 0.48 | 1.53 | -1.05 |
| 2026-02-05 | 0.36 | 1.79 | -1.43 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1.53 | 2.15 | -0.62 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.12 | 2.30 | -0.18 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2.51 | 2.34 | 0.16 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2.37 | 2.30 | 0.06 |
| 2026-01-29 | 2.50 | 2.29 | 0.21 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2.42 | 2.24 | 0.19 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2.15 | 2.19 | -0.04 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1.77 | 2.20 | -0.43 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 685.14 |
| 2026-02-05 | 684.92 |
| 2026-02-04 | 685.22 |
| 2026-02-03 | 685.18 |
| 2026-02-02 | 685.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | 684.57 |
| 2026-01-29 | 684.27 |
| 2026-01-28 | 683.87 |
| 2026-01-27 | 683.40 |
| 2026-01-26 | 682.91 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 651.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | 650.60 |
| 2026-02-04 | 650.33 |
| 2026-02-03 | 649.97 |
| 2026-02-02 | 649.57 |
| 2026-01-30 | 649.11 |
| 2026-01-29 | 648.68 |
| 2026-01-28 | 648.23 |
| 2026-01-27 | 647.75 |
| 2026-01-26 | 647.27 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 51.91 |
| 2026-02-05 | 38.72 |
| 2026-02-04 | 46.54 |
| 2026-02-03 | 50.20 |
| 2026-02-02 | 57.62 |
| 2026-01-30 | 53.92 |
| 2026-01-29 | 56.69 |
| 2026-01-28 | 58.55 |
| 2026-01-27 | 58.64 |
| 2026-01-26 | 56.15 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 44.27
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 687.93 | 0.79 | 44.27 |
| 2026-02-05 | 679.03 | 0.74 | 42.51 |
| 2026-02-04 | 686.47 | 1.18 | 54.18 |
| 2026-02-03 | 690.17 | 2.16 | 68.38 |
| 2026-02-02 | 487.11 | 1.22 | 54.89 |
| 2026-01-30 | 691.10 | 1.14 | 53.34 |
| 2026-01-29 | 691.98 | 1.82 | 64.56 |
| 2026-01-28 | 695.73 | 1.84 | 64.81 |
| 2026-01-27 | 695.20 | 1.27 | 55.99 |
| 2026-01-26 | 692.26 | 1.30 | 56.43 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 690.62
Latest SMA: 690.37
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 679.87
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 700.88
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 93.34
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 78.7M
Today's volume: 89.1M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.13
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 690.07
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 69.0 on 2026-02-02 (UTC)
Last High: 696.96 on 2026-02-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 548.76, 38.2%: 457.08, 50.0%: 382.98, 61.8%: 308.88, 78.6%: 203.39
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 107.4M | 76.5M | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
| 2025-08-29 | 113.5M | 62.9M | 1.81 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits hallmarks of a late-cycle expansion transitioning towards potential slowing. The labor market is cooling, with the Unemployment Rate (4.4%) at the higher end of its three-year range and Nonfarm Payrolls plateauing near all-time highs. A low Labor Force Participation Rate (62.4%) suggests structural slack. Consumer spending (Retail Sales) remains robust, but this is supported by a precipitous drop in the Personal Savings Rate to a low 3.5%, indicating households are depleting buffers to maintain expenditure—a vulnerability. Inflation, as measured by CPI and the Fed-preferred Core PCE, shows persistent but potentially peaking pressures, with wholesale PPI showing signs of moderation. In response, the Fed has pivoted, cutting the Fed Funds Rate to 3.6% from recent highs while maintaining a stable balance sheet (~$6.6T), implying a cautious shift toward accommodation. The market context is fraught: the Buffett Indicator at ~223% signals extreme overvaluation, the VIX has spiked (+24.6%) reflecting rising fear, and while the yield curve (10y-2y: +0.7%) has steepened out of inversion—temporarily alleviating immediate recession fears—the underlying economic pulse is decelerating.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 223.08% is deeply into historical overvaluation territory, suggesting markets are priced for perfection.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Consumer Resilience
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Personal Savings Rate at 3.5% is near multi-year lows, leaving households with little buffer if employment weakens or inflation re-accelerates.
-
Risk: Economic Growth Slowdown Transitioning to Contraction
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Rising unemployment, stagnant payrolls, and low labor force participation point to a cooling economy that could slip into recession if consumer spending falters.
-
Risk: Fed Policy Misstep Amid Sticky Inflation
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: With core inflation (PCE) still elevated, the Fed's recent rate cuts risk being premature, potentially requiring a hawkish reversal that would destabilize markets.
-
Risk: Technical Market Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: SPY is testing all-time highs amid bearish MACD divergences and elevated VIX, suggesting the rally lacks conviction and is vulnerable to a sharp correction.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Short- to Medium-Term (1-6 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The 50-day EMA at ~$685.14, coinciding with the Bollinger Lower Band at ~$679.87. A break below this zone would signal a deeper pullback.
- Next Resistance: The recent high/all-time high at ~$696.96 - $697.84, with the Bollinger Upper Band providing dynamic resistance near $700.88.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop of late-cycle slowing and extreme valuation argues against new aggressive buying. Technically, SPY is in a consolidation near record highs with momentum waning (negative MACD histogram, neutral RSI), but it remains firmly above its primary 200-day EMA uptrend (~$651). The prudent stance is to hold existing positions while respecting the defined support/resistance range, awaiting a clearer macro or technical catalyst for the next directional move.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound strategy within SPY's ~$680-$700 channel. Fade moves toward resistance with tight stops and consider buying dips near the 50-day EMA support, with a break below signaling a shift to a bearish trend-following approach.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain strategic allocations but delay large new lump-sum investments. This is an environment for disciplined rebalancing and selective profit-taking in overextended sectors. Consider deploying cash incrementally via dollar-cost averaging on meaningful pullbacks (e.g., toward the 200-day EMA) to mitigate valuation risk.