Macro Econ 2026-02-15
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.3% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 158.6M on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 158.4M to 158.6M
2 year data range: 157.5M to 158.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 158.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735B on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 716.1B to 735.1B
2 year data range: 687.6B to 735.1B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.1B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.5% on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 3.5% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.5% to 5.9%
3 year data range: 3.5% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326.6 on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 319.8 to 326.6
2 year data range: 312.3 to 326.6
3 year data range: 301.8 to 326.6
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.4 on 2025-11-01
1 year data range: 125.3 to 127.4
2 year data range: 122 to 127.4
3 year data range: 118.3 to 127.4
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 260.7 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-02-11
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.6T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-02-13
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.4% on 2026-02-13
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 96.88, a 0.76% drop from a week ago.
Current VIX: 20.6, up 10.52% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-07-01: 220.12%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | -2 |
| 2026-02-06 | -1 |
| 2026-02-05 | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | 3 |
| 2026-01-29 | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | -1 |
| 2026-01-27 | 1 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $681.75
5-Day Range: $677.52 - $697.14
50-Day Range: $669.22 - $697.84
200-Day Range: $536.84 - $697.84
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 688.03
Lowest price: 675.79
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 684.03
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 680.85
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 681.07
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 675.93
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-02-15
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | -0.38 | 0.76 | -1.14 |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.22 | 1.04 | -0.82 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1.03 | 1.25 | -0.22 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.96 | 1.30 | -0.35 |
| 2026-02-09 | 0.83 | 1.39 | -0.55 |
| 2026-02-06 | 0.48 | 1.53 | -1.05 |
| 2026-02-05 | 0.36 | 1.79 | -1.43 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1.53 | 2.14 | -0.62 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.12 | 2.30 | -0.18 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2.51 | 2.34 | 0.16 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 685.64 |
| 2026-02-12 | 685.80 |
| 2026-02-11 | 685.99 |
| 2026-02-10 | 685.75 |
| 2026-02-09 | 685.48 |
| 2026-02-06 | 685.14 |
| 2026-02-05 | 684.92 |
| 2026-02-04 | 685.21 |
| 2026-02-03 | 685.17 |
| 2026-02-02 | 685.00 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 652.80 |
| 2026-02-12 | 652.51 |
| 2026-02-11 | 652.22 |
| 2026-02-10 | 651.82 |
| 2026-02-09 | 651.42 |
| 2026-02-06 | 650.99 |
| 2026-02-05 | 650.59 |
| 2026-02-04 | 650.32 |
| 2026-02-03 | 649.96 |
| 2026-02-02 | 649.56 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 43.68 |
| 2026-02-12 | 43.19 |
| 2026-02-11 | 52.57 |
| 2026-02-10 | 52.73 |
| 2026-02-09 | 54.48 |
| 2026-02-06 | 51.77 |
| 2026-02-05 | 38.53 |
| 2026-02-04 | 46.31 |
| 2026-02-03 | 49.97 |
| 2026-02-02 | 57.36 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 37.44
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 681.85 | 0.60 | 37.44 |
| 2026-02-12 | 685.66 | 0.59 | 37.15 |
| 2026-02-11 | 692.76 | 0.61 | 38.01 |
| 2026-02-10 | 693.44 | 0.84 | 45.75 |
| 2026-02-09 | 692.72 | 0.82 | 45.14 |
| 2026-02-06 | 687.93 | 0.79 | 44.27 |
| 2026-02-05 | 679.03 | 0.74 | 42.51 |
| 2026-02-04 | 686.47 | 1.18 | 54.18 |
| 2026-02-03 | 690.17 | 2.16 | 68.38 |
| 2026-02-02 | 487.11 | 1.22 | 54.89 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 681.75
Latest SMA: 689.15
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 677.74
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 700.55
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 95.72
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 84.2M
Volume ratio and Price spread in the past 14 days:
| Date | Volume | Volume Ratio | Price Spread (High - Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | 96.3M | 1.14 | 8.76 |
| 2026-02-14 | 118.8M | 1.41 | 14.98 |
| 2026-02-13 | 76.4M | 0.91 | 7.96 |
| 2026-02-12 | 65.2M | 0.77 | 4.88 |
| 2026-02-11 | 73.9M | 0.88 | 7.53 |
| 2026-02-10 | 89.1M | 1.06 | 11.46 |
| 2026-02-09 | 113.6M | 1.35 | 7.90 |
| 2026-02-08 | 105.2M | 1.25 | 9.69 |
| 2026-02-07 | 107.9M | 1.28 | 12.93 |
| 2026-02-06 | 79.3M | 0.94 | 627.92 |
| 2026-02-05 | 101.8M | 1.21 | 7.09 |
| 2026-02-04 | 97.5M | 1.16 | 12.23 |
| 2026-02-03 | 61.2M | 0.73 | 3.90 |
| 2026-02-02 | 55.5M | 0.66 | 2.96 |
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 689.38
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 69.0 on 2026-02-02 (UTC)
Last High: 697.14 on 2026-02-11 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 548.9, 38.2%: 457.19, 50.0%: 383.07, 61.8%: 308.95, 78.6%: 203.43
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 109.5M | 83.5M | 1.31 |
| 2026-01-15 | 107.4M | 76.5M | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits characteristics of a late-cycle expansion transitioning towards potential softening. The growth pulse is moderating: while total payrolls remain at a cycle high, year-over-year job growth has stalled, and the unemployment rate has risen 90 basis points from its 3-year low. Consumers, the engine of the economy, are showing strain; retail sales continue to climb but the personal savings rate has collapsed to a multi-year low of 3.5%, indicating spending is being sustained by drawing down buffers rather than income growth. On inflation, the disinflationary trend appears entrenched, with CPI and Core PCE indices rising but at a decelerating pace. This has allowed the Federal Reserve to shift to an accommodative stance, cutting the Fed Funds Rate by 70 basis points over the past year and holding a stable balance sheet. The market context is fraught with contradictions: recession signals have receded with a positively sloped yield curve (10yr-2yr at +0.6%), but extreme overvaluation persists (Buffett Indicator 220%). Meanwhile, a rising VIX and stable, near-zero SOFR-IORB spreads point to elevated investor anxiety alongside ample systemic liquidity.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
-
Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 220.12% signals the market is severely overvalued relative to the size of the economy, limiting long-term return potential and increasing vulnerability to shocks.
-
Risk: Deteriorating Consumer Resilience
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate at a 3-year low (3.5%) combined with plateauing payroll growth suggests consumer spending, a key growth driver, is becoming increasingly fragile.
-
Risk: Lagged Impact of Prior Monetary Tightening
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Despite recent rate cuts, the cumulative effect of the prior hiking cycle may still be working through the economy, risking a more pronounced slowdown in growth and corporate earnings.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold (with a bias to accumulate on weakness for medium-term investors)
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The confluence of the Bollinger Lower Band (~$677.74) and the 200-day EMA (~$652.80). A breach of the 200-day EMA would signal a more significant trend change.
- Next Resistance: The 50-day EMA (~$685.64) and the recent high at $697.14.
- Brief Rationale: The macro backdrop suggests a slowing but not collapsing economy, with the Fed in a supportive posture, which argues against a deep bear market. Technically, SPY is testing key support (Bollinger Lower Band) while momentum indicators (RSI at 43.68, MFI at 37.44) are approaching oversold territory within a still-intact long-term uptrend (ADX very strong, price above 200-day EMA). The risk/reward for new purchases improves near current support levels, but confirmation of a bounce is needed.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: The environment favors a range-bound, mean-reversion strategy. Use the defined support (~$678) and resistance (~$697) levels for trade entries and exits, given the high ADX confirms a strong trend but current prices are at the lower boundary. Be alert for a breakdown below support, which would shift the strategy to trend-following short.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline through dollar-cost averaging and strategic rebalancing. Avoid market-timing based on elevated valuations alone, but use periods of technical weakness (like the current test of support) to methodically build positions. Given the late-cycle signals, ensure portfolio allocations are aligned with risk tolerance.