Macro Econ 2026-02-22
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.3% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 158.6M on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 158.4M to 158.6M
2 year data range: 157.5M to 158.6M
3 year data range: 155.1M to 158.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735B on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 716.1B to 735.1B
2 year data range: 687.6B to 735.1B
3 year data range: 665.1B to 735.1B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.9%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326.6 on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 319.8 to 326.6
2 year data range: 312.3 to 326.6
3 year data range: 301.8 to 326.6
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.9 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 125.3 to 127.9
2 year data range: 122 to 127.9
3 year data range: 118.3 to 127.9
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 260.7 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-02-18
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.6T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-02-20
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.4% on 2026-02-20
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 97.8, up 1.03% from a week ago.
Current VIX: 19.09, up 7.31% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-10-01: 219.66%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | 2 |
| 2026-02-18 | 8 |
| 2026-02-17 | 6 |
| 2026-02-16 | nan |
| 2026-02-13 | 1 |
| 2026-02-12 | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | -2 |
| 2026-02-06 | -1 |
| 2026-02-05 | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 4 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $689.43
5-Day Range: $675.78 - $690.06
50-Day Range: $669.22 - $697.84
200-Day Range: $551.24 - $697.84
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 686.21
Lowest price: 675.78
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 682.83
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 678.13
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 680.06
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 674.62
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-02-22
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | -0.62 | -0.13 | -0.48 |
| 2026-02-19 | -0.91 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 2026-02-18 | -0.77 | 0.21 | -0.98 |
| 2026-02-17 | -0.75 | 0.46 | -1.21 |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.38 | 0.76 | -1.14 |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.22 | 1.04 | -0.82 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1.03 | 1.25 | -0.22 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.96 | 1.30 | -0.35 |
| 2026-02-09 | 0.83 | 1.39 | -0.55 |
| 2026-02-06 | 0.48 | 1.53 | -1.05 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 685.68 |
| 2026-02-19 | 685.52 |
| 2026-02-18 | 685.57 |
| 2026-02-17 | 685.54 |
| 2026-02-13 | 685.65 |
| 2026-02-12 | 685.80 |
| 2026-02-11 | 685.99 |
| 2026-02-10 | 685.75 |
| 2026-02-09 | 685.49 |
| 2026-02-06 | 685.14 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 654.15 |
| 2026-02-19 | 653.80 |
| 2026-02-18 | 653.49 |
| 2026-02-17 | 653.16 |
| 2026-02-13 | 652.86 |
| 2026-02-12 | 652.57 |
| 2026-02-11 | 652.28 |
| 2026-02-10 | 651.88 |
| 2026-02-09 | 651.48 |
| 2026-02-06 | 651.05 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 51.74 |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.70 |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.42 |
| 2026-02-17 | 44.83 |
| 2026-02-13 | 43.67 |
| 2026-02-12 | 43.18 |
| 2026-02-11 | 52.54 |
| 2026-02-10 | 52.70 |
| 2026-02-09 | 54.45 |
| 2026-02-06 | 51.74 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 48.37
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 687.07 | 0.94 | 48.37 |
| 2026-02-19 | 684.07 | 0.56 | 35.84 |
| 2026-02-18 | 686.09 | 0.51 | 33.96 |
| 2026-02-17 | 681.19 | 0.57 | 36.45 |
| 2026-02-13 | 681.85 | 0.60 | 37.44 |
| 2026-02-12 | 685.66 | 0.59 | 37.15 |
| 2026-02-11 | 692.76 | 0.61 | 38.01 |
| 2026-02-10 | 693.44 | 0.84 | 45.75 |
| 2026-02-09 | 692.72 | 0.82 | 45.14 |
| 2026-02-06 | 687.93 | 0.79 | 44.27 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 689.43
Latest SMA: 689.12
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 678.52
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 699.72
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 9.56
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 84.5M
Volume ratio and Price spread in the past 14 days:
| Date | Volume | Volume Ratio | Price Spread (High - Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 100M | 1.18 | 8.33 |
| 2026-02-21 | 58.6M | 0.69 | 4.63 |
| 2026-02-20 | 73.6M | 0.87 | 6.32 |
| 2026-02-19 | 81.4M | 0.96 | 9.16 |
| 2026-02-18 | 96.3M | 1.14 | 8.76 |
| 2026-02-17 | 118.8M | 1.41 | 14.98 |
| 2026-02-16 | 76.4M | 0.90 | 7.96 |
| 2026-02-15 | 65.2M | 0.77 | 4.88 |
| 2026-02-14 | 73.9M | 0.87 | 7.53 |
| 2026-02-13 | 89.1M | 1.06 | 11.46 |
| 2026-02-12 | 113.6M | 1.35 | 7.90 |
| 2026-02-11 | 105.2M | 1.25 | 9.69 |
| 2026-02-10 | 107.9M | 1.28 | 12.93 |
| 2026-02-09 | 79.3M | 0.94 | 627.92 |
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 688.96
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 69.0 on 2026-02-02 (UTC)
Last High: 697.14 on 2026-02-11 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 548.9, 38.2%: 457.19, 50.0%: 383.07, 61.8%: 308.95, 78.6%: 203.43
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 109.5M | 83.5M | 1.31 |
| 2026-01-15 | 107.4M | 76.5M | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
| 2025-09-15 | 111.6M | 71.7M | 1.56 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary
The U.S. economy exhibits mixed signals consistent with a late-cycle to early contractionary transition. The growth pulse is softening: while retail sales remain robust at multi-year highs, this is supported by a dwindling personal savings rate (3.6%, a multi-year low). The labor market, a key pillar, shows initial cracks with unemployment (4.3%) creeping up from its cycle low and payroll growth stalling over the past year. Inflation remains persistent but moderating, with the CPI and Core PCE continuing their gradual ascent, keeping pressure on the Fed. The Federal Reserve's stance has shifted from tightening to a cautious pause, cutting the Fed Funds rate to 3.6% and allowing its balance sheet to contract further, signaling concern over growth. Market context is one of high valuation and calmer nerves: the Buffett Indicator screams extreme overvaluation (219%), yet the VIX is subdued, and critically, the yield curve (10y-2y and 10y-3m) has decisively steepened out of inversion, historically reducing near-term recession odds. The SOFR-IORB spread shows minimal funding stress.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 219.66% is deeply into historical overvaluation territory, leaving the market vulnerable to negative earnings or multiple compression shocks.
- Risk: Deteriorating Consumer Resilience
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate at a multi-year low of 3.6% suggests consumers have depleted buffers, leaving spending highly sensitive to any weakening in the labor market.
- Risk: Trendless and Range-Bound Equity Market
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: Technical indicators (low ADX of 9.56, neutral RSI/MFI, price consolidating near moving averages) show a complete lack of trend, increasing the risk of whipsaw for directional strategies.
- Risk: Quantitative Tightening Liquidity Drain
- Severity: Low (but rising)
- Rationale: The ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet (down ~$2.1T from peak) is a persistent, albeit slow, drain of systemic liquidity that could amplify volatility during stress periods.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Short-to-Medium-Term (1-6 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: The confluence of the 50-day EMA (~$685.68) and the Bollinger Lower Band ($678.52).
- Next Resistance: The recent high and Bollinger Upper Band around $697-$700.
- Brief Rationale: The macro picture suggests a maturing cycle with high valuations but receding recession fears (steepening yield curve). Technically, SPY is consolidating in a neutral range with weak momentum. This creates a high-risk, low-reward setup for new directional bets. The prudent course is to hold existing positions and await a clearer breakout or a deeper correction to more compelling support.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: Adopt a range-bound, mean-reversion strategy. Fade moves toward the Bollinger Bands ($678-$700) with tight stops, as the low ADX indicates a lack of sustained trend. Be cautious of low-volume breakouts.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline and rebalance. Use periods of volatility near key support (e.g., the 200-day EMA at ~$654) to dollar-cost average into positions. The high starting valuation warrants a neutral allocation relative to strategic targets, with a focus on quality and diversification.