Macro Econ 2026-03-01
Economics Report
FED Data for Unemployment Rate:
The percentage of people in the labor force who are jobless and actively seeking work.
Latest Value: 4.3% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 4.1% to 4.5%
2 year data range: 3.9% to 4.5%
3 year data range: 3.4% to 4.5%
FED Data for All Employees, Total Nonfarm Payrolls:
The total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm employees, government, and non-profits. A key measure of job growth.
Latest Value: 158.6M on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 158.4M to 158.6M
2 year data range: 157.5M to 158.6M
3 year data range: 155.4M to 158.6M
FED Data for Advance Retail Sales:
A measure of the total sales at retail stores and food service establishments. A key indicator of consumer spending strength.
Latest Value: 735B on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 716.1B to 735.1B
2 year data range: 687.6B to 735.1B
3 year data range: 670.5B to 735.1B
FED Data for Labor Force Participation Rate:
The percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively looking for work. It shows how many people are engaged in the labor market.
Latest Value: 62.5% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 62.2% to 62.6%
2 year data range: 62.2% to 62.7%
3 year data range: 62.2% to 62.8%
FED Data for Personal Savings Rate:
The percentage of disposable personal income that people save (i.e., don't spend).
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 5.5%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.9%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 6.4%
FED Data for Consumer Price Index:
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. A primary gauge of inflation.
Latest Value: 326.6 on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 319.8 to 326.6
2 year data range: 312.3 to 326.6
3 year data range: 302.8 to 326.6
FED Data for Core PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks price changes for consumer goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy categories.
Latest Value: 127.9 on 2025-12-01
1 year data range: 125.3 to 127.9
2 year data range: 122 to 127.9
3 year data range: 118.7 to 127.9
FED Data for Producer Price Index:
Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. An indicator of inflation at the wholesale level.
Latest Value: 261.5 on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 258.4 to 262.4
2 year data range: 252.7 to 262.4
3 year data range: 249.9 to 262.4
FED Data for Federal Funds Effective Rate:
The interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. It is the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy.
Latest Value: 3.6% on 2026-01-01
1 year data range: 3.6% to 4.3%
2 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
3 year data range: 3.6% to 5.3%
FED Data for Fed's Assets:
The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. An increase indicates the Fed is adding liquidity to the financial system (e.g., via asset purchases/QE).
Latest Value: 6.6T on 2026-02-25
1 year data range: 6.5T to 6.8T
2 year data range: 6.5T to 7.5T
3 year data range: 6.5T to 8.7T
FED Data for 10-Year minus 2-Year Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury note yields. When it turns negative (inverts), it is a closely watched signal of a potential recession.
Latest Value: 0.6% on 2026-02-27
1 year data range: 0.2% to 0.7%
2 year data range: -0.5% to 0.7%
3 year data range: -1.1% to 0.7%
FED Data for 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread:
The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Also a powerful recession indicator when it inverts.
Latest Value: 0.3% on 2026-02-27
1 year data range: -0.3% to 0.6%
2 year data range: -1.6% to 0.6%
3 year data range: -1.9% to 0.6%
US Dollar Index: 97.61, a 0.09% drop from a week ago.
Current VIX: 19.86, up 1.22% from a week ago.
Buffet Indicator as of 2025-10-01: 218.64%
SOFR minus IORB in the past 14 days (unit: basis points):
A positive spread (SOFR > IORB) indicates stress or scarcity of cash in the overnight lending market. A near-zero or negative spread (SOFR ≤ IORB) indicates ample liquidity.
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2 |
| 2026-02-25 | 2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 2 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2 |
| 2026-02-18 | 8 |
| 2026-02-17 | 6 |
| 2026-02-16 | nan |
| 2026-02-13 | 1 |
| 2026-02-12 | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | -2 |
SPY Technical Report
Price Range for SPY
SPY current price: $685.99
5-Day Range: $680.00 - $693.68
50-Day Range: $669.22 - $697.84
200-Day Range: $570.63 - $697.84
Price Distribution for SPY in the past 30 days
25th percentile: 685.55
Lowest price: 675.78
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 682.83
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 678.13
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 679.15
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 673.74
Technical Indicators Summary for SPY as of 2026-03-01
MACD values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | -0.19 | -0.27 | 0.09 |
| 2026-02-26 | -0.05 | -0.30 | 0.25 |
| 2026-02-25 | -0.20 | -0.36 | 0.15 |
| 2026-02-24 | -0.79 | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.94 | -0.30 | -0.65 |
| 2026-02-20 | -0.62 | -0.13 | -0.48 |
| 2026-02-19 | -0.91 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 2026-02-18 | -0.77 | 0.21 | -0.98 |
| 2026-02-17 | -0.75 | 0.45 | -1.21 |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.38 | 0.76 | -1.14 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 686.04 |
| 2026-02-26 | 686.05 |
| 2026-02-25 | 685.91 |
| 2026-02-24 | 685.62 |
| 2026-02-23 | 685.55 |
| 2026-02-20 | 685.68 |
| 2026-02-19 | 685.52 |
| 2026-02-18 | 685.57 |
| 2026-02-17 | 685.54 |
| 2026-02-13 | 685.65 |
EMA values for SPY with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 655.82 |
| 2026-02-26 | 655.52 |
| 2026-02-25 | 655.18 |
| 2026-02-24 | 654.79 |
| 2026-02-23 | 654.47 |
| 2026-02-20 | 654.19 |
| 2026-02-19 | 653.83 |
| 2026-02-18 | 653.52 |
| 2026-02-17 | 653.20 |
| 2026-02-13 | 652.90 |
RSI values for SPY in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 48.40 |
| 2026-02-26 | 51.37 |
| 2026-02-25 | 55.02 |
| 2026-02-24 | 50.06 |
| 2026-02-23 | 45.26 |
| 2026-02-20 | 51.82 |
| 2026-02-19 | 46.79 |
| 2026-02-18 | 48.51 |
| 2026-02-17 | 44.93 |
| 2026-02-13 | 43.77 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for SPY over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 38.78
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 684.83 | 0.63 | 38.78 |
| 2026-02-26 | 688.98 | 0.59 | 37.10 |
| 2026-02-25 | 692.31 | 0.58 | 36.88 |
| 2026-02-24 | 685.23 | 0.60 | 37.55 |
| 2026-02-23 | 684.25 | 0.60 | 37.61 |
| 2026-02-20 | 687.07 | 0.94 | 48.37 |
| 2026-02-19 | 684.07 | 0.56 | 35.84 |
| 2026-02-18 | 686.09 | 0.51 | 33.96 |
| 2026-02-17 | 681.19 | 0.57 | 36.45 |
| 2026-02-13 | 681.85 | 0.60 | 37.44 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for SPY, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 685.99
Latest SMA: 687.68
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 677.96
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 697.41
ADX for SPY, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 32.0
Volume and volume ratio for SPY:
Last 30 days average volume: 84.3M
Volume ratio and Price spread in the past 14 days:
| Date | Volume | Volume Ratio | Price Spread (High - Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 83.4M | 0.99 | 5.22 |
| 2026-02-28 | 71.8M | 0.85 | 8.95 |
| 2026-02-27 | 56.4M | 0.67 | 3.58 |
| 2026-02-26 | 73.9M | 0.88 | 8.35 |
| 2026-02-25 | 90.7M | 1.08 | 9.63 |
| 2026-02-24 | 100M | 1.19 | 8.33 |
| 2026-02-23 | 58.6M | 0.70 | 4.63 |
| 2026-02-22 | 73.6M | 0.87 | 6.32 |
| 2026-02-21 | 81.4M | 0.97 | 9.16 |
| 2026-02-20 | 96.3M | 1.14 | 8.76 |
| 2026-02-19 | 118.8M | 1.41 | 14.98 |
| 2026-02-18 | 76.4M | 0.91 | 7.96 |
| 2026-02-17 | 65.2M | 0.77 | 4.88 |
| 2026-02-16 | 73.9M | 0.88 | 7.53 |
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 687.51
Support levels for SPY (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 69.0 on 2026-02-02 (UTC)
Last High: 697.14 on 2026-02-11 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 548.9, 38.2%: 457.19, 50.0%: 383.07, 61.8%: 308.95, 78.6%: 203.43
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for SPY in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 120.6M | 92.6M | 1.30 |
| 2026-01-30 | 109.5M | 83.5M | 1.31 |
| 2026-01-15 | 107.4M | 76.5M | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.8M | 76.7M | 1.31 |
| 2025-12-15 | 113.5M | 73.8M | 1.54 |
| 2025-11-28 | 111.6M | 96.8M | 1.15 |
| 2025-11-14 | 118.2M | 79.3M | 1.49 |
| 2025-10-31 | 108.8M | 76.5M | 1.42 |
| 2025-10-15 | 97.9M | 78.5M | 1.25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 114.2M | 80.9M | 1.41 |
Final Report
1. Holistic Macroeconomic Summary The U.S. economy exhibits signs of a late-cycle expansion, characterized by decelerating growth momentum against a backdrop of elevated valuations and supportive, albeit watchful, monetary policy. The growth pulse is cooling: the unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.4% to 4.3% over three years, and nonfarm payroll growth has plateaued near record highs, indicating a mature labor market. While retail sales continue to climb, the personal savings rate has collapsed to a multi-year low of 3.6%, suggesting consumer spending is being sustained by drawing down savings rather than income growth—a potential vulnerability. Inflation remains persistent but moderated, with CPI and Core PCE showing steady upward trajectories. In response, the Federal Reserve has shifted from tightening to an easing stance, having cut the Fed Funds Rate from its peak and holding its balance sheet relatively stable. The market context is one of expensive valuation (Buffett Indicator 218%) and cautious sentiment. The VIX is modestly elevated, but key yield curve spreads (10y-2y, 10y-3m) have steepened out of inversion, signaling recession fears have receded for now. Minimal stress in the overnight funding market (SOFR-IORB ~0-2bps) points to ample systemic liquidity.
2. Risk Assessment with Severity Ratings
- Risk: Extreme Equity Market Valuation
- Severity: High
- Rationale: The Buffett Indicator at 218.6% is significantly above historical norms, indicating the market is priced for near-perfect outcomes.
- Risk: Consumer Exhaustion
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: The personal savings rate at a multi-year low of 3.6%, coupled with plateauing job growth, leaves little buffer for spending if confidence wanes.
- Risk: Fed Policy Pivot (Hawkish Surprise)
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: With core PCE inflation still trending upward, any reacceleration could force the Fed to halt or reverse its easing cycle, unsettling markets.
- Risk: Technical Market Correction
- Severity: Medium
- Rationale: SPY is trading near all-time highs with weakening momentum indicators (e.g., declining MFI at 38.78), increasing vulnerability to a pullback.
3. SPY Recommendation & Trade Setup
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: Medium-Term (3-12 months)
- Key Technical Levels:
- Critical Support: ~$686 (50-day EMA) and ~$678 (Bollinger Lower Band).
- Next Resistance: ~$697 (Recent High & Bollinger Upper Band).
- Brief Rationale: The late-cycle macro backdrop of slowing growth and high valuations argues against aggressive buying, but the lack of imminent recession signals and supportive Fed policy mitigate deep downside risks. Technically, SPY is in a consolidation phase below its recent highs with neutral momentum (RSI ~48), suggesting a wait-and-see approach is prudent until it breaks decisively above resistance or below key support.
4. Investor Implications
- For Tactical Traders: A range-bound strategy is appropriate, given defined support (~$678-$686) and resistance (~$697). Look for opportunities to sell into strength near resistance and buy near support, with a break in either direction signaling the next trend.
- For Long-Term Investors: Maintain discipline through dollar-cost averaging and ensure portfolios are rebalanced to target allocations. This is not an environment to chase performance or raise significant cash, but rather to stay invested while being selective and prioritizing quality.