META 2026-01-14
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for META as of 2026-01-14
Most recent EPS (Actual): 7.25
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 6.67
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 5.9
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 8.02
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 4.39
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-04
Valuation Data Summary for META as of 2026-01-14
Current P/E for META: 25.76
1 year P/E range: 22.44 - 26.52
2 years P/E range: 22.44 - 27.73
5 years P/E range: 12.91 - 32.59
Management Sentiment Summary for META in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
No data available
Insider transactions for META in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | -517 | $650.41 | Sell | 11.7K |
| 2025-12-30 | -519 | $658.69 | Sell | 28.7K |
| 2025-12-29 | -517 | $658.14 | Sell | 12.2K |
| 2025-12-23 | -519 | $659.38 | Sell | 29.2K |
| 2025-12-22 | -517 | $661.11 | Sell | 12.7K |
| 2025-12-16 | -519 | $643.23 | Sell | 29.7K |
| 2025-12-15 | -1.1K | $646.0 | Sell | 19.4K |
| 2025-12-09 | -519 | $664.16 | Sell | 30.2K |
| 2025-12-08 | -517 | $669.63 | Sell | 13.8K |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for META
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 649.3
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 624.1
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 644.81
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 638.7
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 639.34
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 629.30
Price Range for META
META current price: $631.09
5-Day Range: $624.10 - $659.15
50-Day Range: $580.78 - $710.42
200-Day Range: $478.72 - $795.06
Technical Indicators Summary for META as of 2026-01-14
MACD values for META in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | -0.66 | 1.31 | -1.97 |
| 2026-01-09 | 0.41 | 1.80 | -1.39 |
| 2026-01-08 | 0.65 | 2.15 | -1.50 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1.66 | 2.53 | -0.87 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.65 | 2.74 | -0.09 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2.67 | 2.77 | -0.10 |
| 2026-01-02 | 2.83 | 2.79 | 0.04 |
| 2025-12-31 | 3.86 | 2.78 | 1.08 |
| 2025-12-30 | 4.13 | 2.51 | 1.62 |
| 2025-12-29 | 3.81 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
EMA values for META with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 659.98 |
| 2026-01-09 | 660.71 |
| 2026-01-08 | 661.03 |
| 2026-01-07 | 661.64 |
| 2026-01-06 | 662.17 |
| 2026-01-05 | 662.23 |
| 2026-01-02 | 662.37 |
| 2025-12-31 | 662.86 |
| 2025-12-30 | 662.97 |
| 2025-12-29 | 662.85 |
EMA values for META with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 666.58 |
| 2026-01-09 | 666.83 |
| 2026-01-08 | 666.97 |
| 2026-01-07 | 667.18 |
| 2026-01-06 | 667.36 |
| 2026-01-05 | 667.43 |
| 2026-01-02 | 667.52 |
| 2025-12-31 | 667.69 |
| 2025-12-30 | 667.77 |
| 2025-12-29 | 667.78 |
RSI values for META in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 43.70 |
| 2026-01-09 | 48.97 |
| 2026-01-08 | 45.09 |
| 2026-01-07 | 46.32 |
| 2026-01-06 | 52.32 |
| 2026-01-05 | 51.43 |
| 2026-01-02 | 47.20 |
| 2025-12-31 | 52.06 |
| 2025-12-30 | 55.26 |
| 2025-12-29 | 51.86 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for META over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 36.16
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 632.49 | 0.57 | 36.16 |
| 2026-01-12 | 645.72 | 0.64 | 38.98 |
| 2026-01-09 | 650.29 | 0.71 | 41.68 |
| 2026-01-08 | 642.96 | 0.62 | 38.29 |
| 2026-01-07 | 650.88 | 0.65 | 39.52 |
| 2026-01-06 | 659.35 | 1.18 | 54.10 |
| 2026-01-05 | 657.03 | 0.45 | 30.88 |
| 2026-01-02 | 652.77 | 0.53 | 34.75 |
| 2025-12-31 | 661.51 | 0.52 | 34.31 |
| 2025-12-30 | 665.34 | 0.73 | 42.08 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for META, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 631.09
Latest SMA: 655.5
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 636.88
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 674.13
ADX for META, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 43.46
Volume and volume ratio for META:
Last 30 days average volume: 14.7M
Today's volume: 18M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.23
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 655.74
Support levels for META (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 581.25 on 2025-11-19 (UTC)
Last High: 796.25 on 2025-08-15 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 721.57, 38.2%: 675.37, 50.0%: 638.02, 61.8%: 600.68, 78.6%: 547.52
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for META in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 33.1M | 14.7M | 2.26 |
| 2025-12-15 | 32M | 15.4M | 2.08 |
| 2025-11-28 | 32.4M | 20.1M | 1.61 |
| 2025-11-14 | 30.2M | 23M | 1.31 |
| 2025-10-31 | 27.9M | 21.6M | 1.29 |
| 2025-10-15 | 24.5M | 13.6M | 1.81 |
| 2025-09-30 | 23.8M | 12M | 1.98 |
| 2025-09-15 | 26.3M | 10.1M | 2.61 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.4M | 9.9M | 2.46 |
| 2025-08-15 | 27.7M | 11.3M | 2.45 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-13:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620 | 0.40 | -0.41 | 0.01 | -0.44 | 0.71 | 23.55 | 23.30 |
| 610 | 0.41 | -0.36 | 0.01 | -0.42 | 0.69 | 19.35 | 19.10 |
| 600 | 0.41 | -0.31 | 0.00 | -0.40 | 0.64 | 15.75 | 15.50 |
| 590 | 0.41 | -0.26 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 0.60 | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| 580 | 0.41 | -0.22 | 0.00 | -0.34 | 0.54 | 9.90 | 9.80 |
| 570 | 0.41 | -0.18 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.48 | 7.85 | 7.65 |
| 560 | 0.42 | -0.14 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.42 | 6.15 | 5.95 |
| 550 | 0.43 | -0.12 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 0.36 | 4.80 | 4.65 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-30:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620 | 0.33 | -0.38 | 0.01 | -0.47 | 0.52 | 12.40 | 12.05 |
| 610 | 0.33 | -0.30 | 0.01 | -0.44 | 0.47 | 8.95 | 8.60 |
| 600 | 0.34 | -0.23 | 0.01 | -0.39 | 0.41 | 6.35 | 6.05 |
| 590 | 0.34 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.34 | 0.34 | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| 580 | 0.35 | -0.12 | 0.00 | -0.28 | 0.28 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| 570 | 0.36 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.22 | 2.14 | 2.00 |
| 560 | 0.38 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.18 | 0.17 | 1.51 | 1.38 |
| 550 | 0.39 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.13 | 1.09 | 0.96 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Sell (with a view to potentially re-enter at lower levels)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: The company's earnings are strong, with a recent beat ($7.25 vs. $6.67 consensus) and a solid historical track record (0 misses in 8 quarters). However, the current P/E of 25.76 is at the high end of its 1-year range (22.44 - 26.52), suggesting the stock is fully valued. More critically, insider selling is a significant red flag. Over the last 90 days, insiders have been consistently selling shares at prices ranging from $643 to $670, totaling over $5.1 million in net sales. This persistent selling by those with the best knowledge of the company's prospects is a strong bearish signal.
-
Technical: The stock is in a clear downtrend and breaking through key support levels. The current price of $631.09 is:
- Below the 50-day EMA (~$660) and the 200-day EMA (~$667), indicating bearish momentum.
- Below the critical 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $638.02 from the 2025 high/low.
- Below the Bollinger Lower Band ($636.88), signaling an oversold condition but within a strong downtrend.
- Supported by weak momentum indicators: RSI at 43.7 (neutral but declining), MACD histogram deeply negative (-1.97), and Money Flow Index (MFI) at a weak 36.16.
- Trading on elevated volume (Volume Ratio 1.23), confirming the selling pressure.
-
News & Macro: The news sentiment is mixed-to-negative, with specific concerning headlines:
- Michael Burry's Warning: A high-profile critique of Meta's massive $600B AI capex plan, warning it will destroy historical efficiency and ROIC. The stock fell 2% on this news.
- Strategic Retreat: Reports of over 10% job cuts in the Reality Labs division and up to 30% budget reductions for the metaverse, signaling operational challenges and a pivot away from a long-term strategic bet. While there are positive AI partnership announcements, the macro backdrop adds caution. The U.S. economy shows late-cycle signs (rising unemployment, depleted savings), and equity markets (SPY) are at extreme valuations (Buffett Indicator 224%). The overall risk environment is elevated.
-
Option Chain: The option market reflects elevated fear and expectation of further downside. Implied Volatility (IV) for puts is high (~40% for monthly puts), and the put skew (higher IV for lower strikes) is pronounced. The high negative Delta for at-the-money puts (e.g., -0.41 for the 620 strike) indicates the market is pricing in a high probability of the stock staying below these levels. The steep Theta decay makes long-dated put protection expensive, aligning with a bearish near-term outlook.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Action: Sell existing holdings or consider establishing a hedged short position (e.g., buying puts).
- Re-Entry Price: The ideal buy zone would be on a significant pullback to stronger, proven support levels. Key areas to watch:
- Primary Zone: $580 - $590. This is near the 50-day low ($580.78) and the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($600.68), and aligns with the strike prices showing lower put IV, suggesting the market sees these as more stable floors.
- Secondary/Deep Support: ~$550. This is near the 78.6% Fibonacci level ($547.52) and represents a major washout level.
- Stop-Loss (for short positions): A close above $660 (reclaiming the 50-day EMA and recent consolidation) would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis.
- Time Horizon: This is a short-to-medium term tactical call (weeks to a few months), driven by technical breakdown, insider selling, and negative catalyst. The view would be reassessed after the Q4 earnings report on 2026-02-04, which will be critical for clarifying the AI investment trajectory and financial impact.
Final Notes: META is a fundamentally strong company caught in a perfect storm of technical breakdown, concerning insider activity, and negative news catalysts regarding its colossal capital allocation shift. While the long-term AI bet could pay off, the near-term path involves significant uncertainty and likely capital destruction as the market reprices the stock for lower returns on invested capital. Risk is high to the downside. Prudent risk management dictates reducing exposure here and waiting for either a much more attractive valuation or clear technical stabilization before considering a new long position.