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msft.

MSFT 2025-06-19

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MSFT

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My last analysis of MSFT 8 days ago said the upper bollinger band was 475.42 and it is now passing that.

financial report

----Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-06-19----

Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.46

Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.22

Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-04-30

Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-03-31

Historical EPS (last 8 quarters):

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2024-12-31 | 3.23 |

| 2024-09-30 | 3.3 |

| 2024-06-30 | 2.95 |

| 2024-03-31 | 2.94 |

| 2023-12-31 | 2.93 |

| 2023-09-30 | 2.99 |

| 2023-06-30 | 2.69 |

| 2023-03-31 | 2.45 |

Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.94

In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.

Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.3

Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.45

Upcoming earnings date: 2025-07-28

----Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-06-19----

Current P/E for MSFT: 37.17

1 year P/E range: 28.96 - 38.38

2 years P/E range: 28.96 - 38.38

5 years P/E range: 24.53 - 38.38

Symbols of peer companies within the same sector: ['GEN', 'META', 'AAPL', 'GOOGL', 'NVDA', 'ORCL', 'GOOG', 'NOW', 'AMD', 'FTNT', 'AMZN', 'CRWD', 'CRM', 'TSLA', 'PANW', 'CVLT', 'RBRK', 'ZS']

Average P/E for these peer companies: -45.19

----Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q2 earnings call----:

The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:

The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.

The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.

0.5 is neutral.

| Title | Sentiment Score |

|--------|---------------|

| CEO | 0.67 |

| CFO | 0.64 |

technical report

----Stock performance for MSFT----

MSFT performance in the past 5 days: 0.29%

MSFT performance in the past 30 days: 11.02%

MSFT performance in the past 90 days: 16.95%

MSFT performance in the past 200 days: 15.8%

----Sector peers performance for MSFT----

GEN performance in the past 5 days: -3.01%

GEN performance in the past 30 days: 5.92%

GEN performance in the past 90 days: 5.33%

GEN performance in the past 200 days: 12.42%

META performance in the past 5 days: 0.42%

META performance in the past 30 days: 16.67%

META performance in the past 90 days: -2.85%

META performance in the past 200 days: 33.92%

AAPL performance in the past 5 days: -1.32%

AAPL performance in the past 30 days: 0.3%

AAPL performance in the past 90 days: -13.53%

AAPL performance in the past 200 days: -13.86%

GOOGL performance in the past 5 days: -1.35%

GOOGL performance in the past 30 days: 14.63%

GOOGL performance in the past 90 days: -6.83%

GOOGL performance in the past 200 days: 6.6%

NVDA performance in the past 5 days: 0.33%

NVDA performance in the past 30 days: 24.29%

NVDA performance in the past 90 days: 8.93%

NVDA performance in the past 200 days: 21.91%

ORCL performance in the past 5 days: 5.51%

ORCL performance in the past 30 days: 41.17%

ORCL performance in the past 90 days: 18.28%

ORCL performance in the past 200 days: 50.49%

GOOG performance in the past 5 days: -1.69%

GOOG performance in the past 30 days: 14.0%

GOOG performance in the past 90 days: -7.34%

GOOG performance in the past 200 days: 5.88%

NOW performance in the past 5 days: -2.51%

NOW performance in the past 30 days: -0.12%

NOW performance in the past 90 days: -3.89%

NOW performance in the past 200 days: 14.86%

AMD performance in the past 5 days: 7.0%

AMD performance in the past 30 days: 26.34%

AMD performance in the past 90 days: 14.76%

AMD performance in the past 200 days: -14.65%

FTNT performance in the past 5 days: -0.83%

FTNT performance in the past 30 days: -5.53%

FTNT performance in the past 90 days: -7.97%

FTNT performance in the past 200 days: 31.43%

AMZN performance in the past 5 days: -0.34%

AMZN performance in the past 30 days: 12.62%

AMZN performance in the past 90 days: -8.84%

AMZN performance in the past 200 days: 19.06%

CRWD performance in the past 5 days: 0.71%

CRWD performance in the past 30 days: 14.83%

CRWD performance in the past 90 days: 13.11%

CRWD performance in the past 200 days: 74.97%

CRM performance in the past 5 days: -2.62%

CRM performance in the past 30 days: -6.58%

CRM performance in the past 90 days: -20.44%

CRM performance in the past 200 days: 3.21%

TSLA performance in the past 5 days: 0.92%

TSLA performance in the past 30 days: 16.59%

TSLA performance in the past 90 days: -8.18%

TSLA performance in the past 200 days: 50.41%

PANW performance in the past 5 days: 1.07%

PANW performance in the past 30 days: 6.19%

PANW performance in the past 90 days: 1.72%

PANW performance in the past 200 days: 10.16%

CVLT performance in the past 5 days: -3.18%

CVLT performance in the past 30 days: 3.17%

CVLT performance in the past 90 days: 0.48%

CVLT performance in the past 200 days: 15.94%

RBRK performance in the past 5 days: -1.77%

RBRK performance in the past 30 days: 14.98%

RBRK performance in the past 90 days: 13.27%

RBRK performance in the past 200 days: 150.34%

ZS performance in the past 5 days: 1.32%

ZS performance in the past 30 days: 30.77%

ZS performance in the past 90 days: 43.7%

ZS performance in the past 200 days: 52.72%

----Mag 7 performance as a reference----

GOOG performance in the past 5 days: -1.69%

GOOG performance in the past 30 days: 14.0%

GOOG performance in the past 90 days: -7.34%

GOOG performance in the past 200 days: 5.88%

GOOGL performance in the past 5 days: -1.35%

GOOGL performance in the past 30 days: 14.63%

GOOGL performance in the past 90 days: -6.83%

GOOGL performance in the past 200 days: 6.6%

AMZN performance in the past 5 days: -0.34%

AMZN performance in the past 30 days: 12.62%

AMZN performance in the past 90 days: -8.84%

AMZN performance in the past 200 days: 19.06%

AAPL performance in the past 5 days: -1.32%

AAPL performance in the past 30 days: 0.3%

AAPL performance in the past 90 days: -13.53%

AAPL performance in the past 200 days: -13.86%

MSFT performance in the past 5 days: 0.29%

MSFT performance in the past 30 days: 11.02%

MSFT performance in the past 90 days: 16.95%

MSFT performance in the past 200 days: 15.8%

META performance in the past 5 days: 0.42%

META performance in the past 30 days: 16.67%

META performance in the past 90 days: -2.85%

META performance in the past 200 days: 33.92%

NVDA performance in the past 5 days: 0.33%

NVDA performance in the past 30 days: 24.29%

NVDA performance in the past 90 days: 8.93%

NVDA performance in the past 200 days: 21.91%

TSLA performance in the past 5 days: 0.92%

TSLA performance in the past 30 days: 16.59%

TSLA performance in the past 90 days: -8.18%

TSLA performance in the past 200 days: 50.41%

----Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-06-19----

MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:

| Date | histogram | macd | signal |

|--------|---------|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-18 | -0.76 | 12.04 | 12.79 |

| 2025-06-17 | -0.76 | 12.23 | 12.98 |

| 2025-06-16 | -0.66 | 12.52 | 13.17 |

| 2025-06-13 | -0.75 | 12.59 | 13.34 |

| 2025-06-12 | -0.60 | 12.93 | 13.52 |

| 2025-06-11 | -0.91 | 12.77 | 13.67 |

| 2025-06-10 | -0.88 | 13.02 | 13.90 |

| 2025-06-09 | -0.80 | 13.32 | 14.12 |

| 2025-06-06 | -0.99 | 13.33 | 14.32 |

| 2025-06-05 | -1.18 | 13.39 | 14.57 |

EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-18 | 443.57 |

| 2025-06-17 | 442.08 |

| 2025-06-16 | 440.61 |

| 2025-06-13 | 439.04 |

| 2025-06-12 | 437.57 |

| 2025-06-11 | 435.89 |

| 2025-06-10 | 434.39 |

| 2025-06-09 | 432.90 |

| 2025-06-06 | 431.27 |

| 2025-06-05 | 429.67 |

EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-18 | 421.22 |

| 2025-06-17 | 420.63 |

| 2025-06-16 | 420.05 |

| 2025-06-13 | 419.46 |

| 2025-06-12 | 418.90 |

| 2025-06-11 | 418.30 |

| 2025-06-10 | 417.75 |

| 2025-06-09 | 417.22 |

| 2025-06-06 | 416.66 |

| 2025-06-05 | 416.12 |

RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:

| Date | Value |

|--------|--------|

| 2025-06-18 | 73.43 |

| 2025-06-17 | 72.13 |

| 2025-06-16 | 73.80 |

| 2025-06-13 | 71.46 |

| 2025-06-12 | 77.48 |

| 2025-06-11 | 74.26 |

| 2025-06-10 | 73.30 |

| 2025-06-09 | 76.15 |

| 2025-06-06 | 74.98 |

| 2025-06-05 | 73.61 |

Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 20 days:

Latest MFI: 67.88

| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |

|--------|--------|----------------|-------------|

| 2025-06-18 | 67.88 | 2.11 | 478.57 |

| 2025-06-17 | 67.62 | 2.09 | 476.95 |

| 2025-06-16 | 72.50 | 2.64 | 478.28 |

| 2025-06-13 | 66.68 | 2.00 | 475.63 |

| 2025-06-12 | 71.72 | 2.54 | 477.60 |

| 2025-06-11 | 71.71 | 2.53 | 472.58 |

| 2025-06-10 | 72.16 | 2.59 | 470.23 |

| 2025-06-09 | 76.69 | 3.29 | 471.60 |

| 2025-06-06 | 72.75 | 2.67 | 470.83 |

| 2025-06-05 | 73.22 | 2.73 | 467.12 |

| 2025-06-04 | 73.33 | 2.75 | 464.19 |

| 2025-06-03 | 69.69 | 2.30 | 462.66 |

| 2025-06-02 | 69.94 | 2.33 | 460.32 |

| 2025-05-30 | 70.85 | 2.43 | 459.19 |

| 2025-05-29 | 72.23 | 2.60 | 458.57 |

| 2025-05-28 | 69.45 | 2.27 | 458.94 |

| 2025-05-27 | 73.03 | 2.71 | 459.25 |

| 2025-05-23 | 72.60 | 2.65 | 450.93 |

| 2025-05-22 | 76.39 | 3.23 | 456.34 |

| 2025-05-21 | 76.42 | 3.24 | 454.05 |

| 2025-05-20 | 79.92 | 3.98 | 456.94 |

Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days

Number of Standard Deviations: 2

Latest Close: 480.24

Latest SMA: 466.46

Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 447.7

Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 485.21

Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:

Last 30 days average volume: 18884013.33

Today's volume: 17513200

Volume Ratio: 0.93

Support levels for MSFT in the last 200 days:

Last Low: 344.16 on 2025-04-07

Last High: 481.0 on 2025-06-18

Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 448.71, 38.2%: 428.73, 50.0%: 412.58, 61.8%: 396.43, 78.6%: 373.44

Resonance Supports: No resonance supports —— fib support levels are not within ±3% range of the recent low.

Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:

| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |

|-----------|----------------|-------------|--------------|

| 2025-05-30 | 19992106 | 2.91 | 58182215 |

| 2025-05-15 | 24840919 | 2.30 | 57074580 |

| 2025-04-30 | 21114042 | 2.38 | 50313676 |

| 2025-04-15 | 31488151 | 1.63 | 51249494 |

| 2025-03-31 | 21853977 | 2.30 | 50168012 |

| 2025-03-14 | 24626872 | 2.61 | 64256703 |

| 2025-02-28 | 24885730 | 2.67 | 66334396 |

| 2025-02-14 | 20467216 | 2.62 | 53633341 |

| 2025-01-31 | 27073172 | 2.31 | 62492832 |

| 2025-01-15 | 17806051 | 3.47 | 61735926 |

Close Price as of 2025-06-19: 480.24

news report

----News and sentiment report for MSFT as of 2025-06-19----

There are 574 articles found for MSFT for the last 30 days.

Peer news results as a comparison:

GEN: 15372 articles found.

META: 20941 articles found.

AAPL: 830 articles found.

GOOGL: 263 articles found.

NVDA: 1074 articles found.

ORCL: 138 articles found.

GOOG: 110 articles found.

NOW: 253967 articles found.

AMD: 8020 articles found.

FTNT: 43 articles found.

Detailed Sentiment Analysis based on 10 MSFT news articles:

Title: Momo Buys On Fed Hopium But Prudent Investors Wait For Dot Plot, Trump Gambit Increases Risk

Publisher: Benzinga

Published: 2025-06-18T15:20:58Z

Sentiment: neutral

Reasoning: The article states that in the early trade, money flows are neutral in MSFT.

URL: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45999285/momo-buys-on-fed-hopium-but-prudent-investors-wait-for-dot-plot-trump-gambit-increases-risk

Title: Want Exposure to AI, Quantum Computing, and Robotics? This Vanguard ETF Has It All.

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-18T11:30:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: The article mentions Microsoft as one of the top holdings in the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, indicating its importance in the tech sector.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/18/want-exposure-to-ai-quantum-computing-and-robotics/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Prediction: Buying Amazon Stock Today Could Set You Up for Life

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-17T10:30:00Z

Sentiment: neutral

Reasoning: The article notes that Microsoft's Azure is the second-largest cloud infrastructure provider after AWS, but does not delve into any details about Microsoft's business or performance in this market.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/17/prediction-buying-amazon-stock-amzn-ai/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: 2 Unstoppable Dow Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-16T22:15:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: Microsoft's cloud unit Azure is driving growth, and the company has a wide moat, strong brand, and consistent profitability and cash flow, making it a reliable long-term investment.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/16/2-unstoppable-dow-dividend-stocks-to-buy-and-hold/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: $5.26 Tn Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market Trends and Global Forecasts to 2035: BFSI Sector Leads as AI Revolutionizes Financial Services, Healthcare on the Rise

Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.

Published: 2025-06-16T08:57:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: The article lists Microsoft as one of the key players in the artificial intelligence market, suggesting its active involvement and contribution to the industry's development.

URL: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/16/3099615/28124/en/5-26-Tn-Artificial-Intelligence-AI-Market-Trends-and-Global-Forecasts-to-2035-BFSI-Sector-Leads-as-AI-Revolutionizes-Financial-Services-Healthcare-on-the-Rise.html

Title: Cloud Security Market Industry Trends and Market Forecasts Report 2025-2035: Rising Cyber Threats and Cloud Adoption Propel Growth Across Multiple Industries

Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc.

Published: 2025-06-16T08:43:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: Microsoft Azure is a major cloud platform, and the increased adoption of cloud services will drive demand for their cloud security solutions.

URL: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/16/3099612/28124/en/Cloud-Security-Market-Industry-Trends-and-Market-Forecasts-Report-2025-2035-Rising-Cyber-Threats-and-Cloud-Adoption-Propel-Growth-Across-Multiple-Industries.html

Title: 1 Unstoppable Stock That Could Join the $1 Trillion Club Alongside Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and More

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-16T08:15:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned as one of the companies that has joined the trillion-dollar club, suggesting it is a successful and valuable company.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/16/1-stock-join-1-trillion-club-nvidia-amazon-microso/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: 1 Top Vanguard ETF That Could Turn $50,000 Into $542,000 in 25 Years

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-15T08:14:00Z

Sentiment: positive

Reasoning: Microsoft is another top holding of the Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF, which is expected to drive the fund's growth due to the company's investments in artificial intelligence and continued business expansion.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/15/1-top-vanguard-etf-turn-50000-into-542000/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Could Investing in CoreWeave Stock Make You a Millionaire in 2025?

Publisher: The Motley Fool

Published: 2025-06-13T21:08:00Z

Sentiment: neutral

Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned as a cloud hyperscaler that is investing in data center build-outs, which is driving the need for infrastructure services like those provided by CoreWeave.

URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/06/13/could-investing-in-coreweave-stock-make-you-a-mill/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: IBM Up 10 Days in a Row: What’s Driving the Winning Streak?

Publisher: Investing.com

Published: 2025-06-13T20:43:00Z

Sentiment: neutral

Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned as one of the tech giants leading the recent market rally, but the article focuses on IBM's performance.

URL: https://www.investing.com/analysis/ibm-up-10-days-in-a-row-whats-driving-the-winning-streak-200662227

Out of the total 10 articles,

There are 6 articles with positive sentiment, and

0 articles with negative sentiment. Remaining articles are neutral.

today

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final report

Recommendation: Neutral (Hold)

Reasoning:

Financial:

  • Earnings Strength: MSFT has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past 8 quarters, with the latest EPS of 3.46 (vs. consensus 3.22). Historical EPS growth is strong, averaging 2.94 over the last 8 quarters.

  • Valuation Concerns: The current P/E of 37.17 is near the upper end of its 5-year range (24.53–38.38), suggesting the stock is fully valued. Peer comparison is skewed due to negative average P/E (-45.19), but MSFT trades at a premium.

  • Upcoming Catalyst: Next earnings report is on July 28, which could drive volatility.

Technical:

  • Overbought Conditions:

  • RSI (73.43) is in overbought territory (>70), signaling potential short-term pullback risk.

  • MACD histogram is negative (-0.76), indicating weakening momentum.

  • Price near upper Bollinger Band (485.21), a classic resistance level.

  • Support Levels:

  • Immediate support at 50-day EMA (443.57) and Fibonacci 23.6% (448.71).

  • Stronger support at 200-day EMA (421.22).

  • Volume: Today’s volume is below 30-day average (0.93 ratio), suggesting lack of strong conviction in the current uptrend.

News:

  • Sentiment is Positive (6/10 articles bullish), with focus on AI, cloud growth (Azure), and long-term stability.

  • No major negative catalysts, but macroeconomic risks (Fed policy, political uncertainty) are noted.

Additional Context:

  • User’s last analysis noted resistance at 475.42 (Bollinger Band), which has now been breached. However, overbought conditions and lack of volume confirmation suggest caution.

Strategy to Minimize Risk:

1. Capital Allocation:

  • Allocate no more than 5–10% of capital if entering new positions.

  • Hold existing positions but avoid adding aggressively at current levels.

2. Entry Price:

  • Ideal buy zone: $448–$455 (near 50-day EMA & Fibonacci 23.6% support).

  • Breakout confirmation above $485 (upper Bollinger Band) could signal continuation, but wait for volume confirmation.

3. Stop-Loss:

  • Aggressive traders: $440 (~8.5% below current price).

  • Conservative investors: $425 (~11.5% below current price, near 200-day EMA).

4. Hedging Measures:

  • Protective Put Options: Buy July $450 puts (~5% OTM) to hedge downside.

  • VIX Hedge: If VIX is low (30% percentile), consider VIX calls as a macro hedge.

  • Pair Trade: Short a weaker tech peer (e.g., AAPL, which has underperformed MSFT).

5. Profit Targets:

  • Short-term (1–3 weeks): $485–$490 (upper Bollinger Band resistance).

  • Long-term (post-earnings): $500+ if earnings beat and guidance is strong.

6. Time Horizon:

  • Short-term traders: Wait for pullback or breakout confirmation.

  • Long-term investors: Hold but avoid adding until better valuation or post-earnings dip.

Final Notes:

  • Earnings on July 28 could be a major catalyst—watch for guidance on AI/cloud growth.

  • Market-wide risks (Fed policy, election uncertainty) may pressure tech stocks.

  • If RSI cools below 60 and MACD turns positive, reconsider entry.

Summary: MSFT is a high-quality stock but overbought in the short term. Neutral/Hold until better risk-reward emerges.