MSFT 2025-11-24
Financial Report
----Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-24---- Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72 Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66 Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29 Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30 Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18 In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times. Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65 Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93 Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
----Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-24---- Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53 1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53 2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43 5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
----Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call----: The following is the average sentiment score for each management title: The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
----Insider transactions in the last 90 days---- On 2025-11-04, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at MSFT. Total of 38500.0 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $518.4907 and $519.2096. The insiders have 931282.5266 shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 496.1
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 468.27
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 494.88
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 481.93
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 484.44
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 465.78
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $472.12
5-Day Range: $468.27 - $511.16
50-Day Range: $468.27 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-24
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | -3.99 | -8.84 | -4.86 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.26 | -7.12 | -3.86 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.42 | -5.46 | -3.04 |
| 2025-11-18 | -1.71 | -4.15 | -2.44 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.09 | -3.10 | -2.01 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.36 | -3.10 | -1.74 |
| 2025-11-13 | -1.93 | -3.33 | -1.40 |
| 2025-11-12 | -1.96 | -2.88 | -0.92 |
| 2025-11-11 | -2.64 | -3.06 | -0.42 |
| 2025-11-10 | -3.23 | -2.99 | 0.23 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 508.21 |
| 2025-11-20 | 509.68 |
| 2025-11-19 | 510.95 |
| 2025-11-18 | 511.93 |
| 2025-11-17 | 512.67 |
| 2025-11-14 | 512.88 |
| 2025-11-13 | 512.99 |
| 2025-11-12 | 513.38 |
| 2025-11-11 | 513.48 |
| 2025-11-10 | 513.67 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 480.72 |
| 2025-11-20 | 480.81 |
| 2025-11-19 | 480.83 |
| 2025-11-18 | 480.77 |
| 2025-11-17 | 480.64 |
| 2025-11-14 | 480.37 |
| 2025-11-13 | 480.07 |
| 2025-11-12 | 479.83 |
| 2025-11-11 | 479.52 |
| 2025-11-10 | 479.23 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 28.01 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.38 |
| 2025-11-19 | 34.05 |
| 2025-11-18 | 37.25 |
| 2025-11-17 | 45.42 |
| 2025-11-14 | 47.31 |
| 2025-11-13 | 41.52 |
| 2025-11-12 | 46.98 |
| 2025-11-11 | 44.87 |
| 2025-11-10 | 42.56 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 46.53
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | 46.53 | 0.87 | 473.10 |
| 2025-11-20 | 47.68 | 0.91 | 482.50 |
| 2025-11-19 | 47.39 | 0.90 | 488.38 |
| 2025-11-18 | 47.25 | 0.90 | 494.52 |
| 2025-11-17 | 49.59 | 0.98 | 508.17 |
| 2025-11-14 | 40.91 | 0.69 | 506.41 |
| 2025-11-13 | 28.38 | 0.40 | 506.03 |
| 2025-11-12 | 26.52 | 0.36 | 507.31 |
| 2025-11-11 | 15.81 | 0.19 | 506.88 |
| 2025-11-10 | 19.93 | 0.25 | 503.88 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 472.12
Latest SMA: 508.47
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 471.61
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 545.33
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 64.52
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 23152620.57
Today's volume: 31769248.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.37
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 509.56
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 431.11 on 2025-05-07 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 425.26
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 22626543 | 2.32 | 52549516 |
| 2025-10-15 | 17554205 | 2.98 | 52344880 |
| 2025-09-30 | 20756767 | 2.65 | 54926474 |
| 2025-09-15 | 19272786 | 3.39 | 65238937 |
| 2025-08-29 | 22262516 | 2.63 | 58491994 |
| 2025-08-15 | 20769063 | 2.71 | 56182641 |
| 2025-07-31 | 20009152 | 2.63 | 52644614 |
| 2025-07-15 | 15338949 | 3.51 | 53792695 |
| 2025-06-30 | 23339673 | 2.44 | 56857827 |
| 2025-06-13 | 16464878 | 3.11 | 51170267 |
Option Chain
----Put Option Chain for MSFT---- Monthly options: MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2974, delta: -0.3314, gamma: 0.0087, theta: -0.2188, vega: 0.5097 ask price: 9.75, bid price: 9.4
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3098, delta: -0.2541, gamma: 0.0074, theta: -0.2042, vega: 0.4503 ask price: 7.15, bid price: 6.75
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3248, delta: -0.1924, gamma: 0.006, theta: -0.1845, vega: 0.3842 ask price: 5.2, bid price: 4.95
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3404, delta: -0.1441, gamma: 0.0047, theta: -0.1618, vega: 0.3189 ask price: 3.85, bid price: 3.55
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3589, delta: -0.1086, gamma: 0.0037, theta: -0.1409, vega: 0.2618 ask price: 2.88, bid price: 2.64
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3793, delta: -0.0825, gamma: 0.0029, theta: -0.1223, vega: 0.2139 ask price: 2.19, bid price: 2.01
MSFT 400 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3998, delta: -0.0628, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.105, vega: 0.1735 ask price: 1.69, bid price: 1.52
MSFT 390 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.4214, delta: -0.0483, gamma: 0.0017, theta: -0.0902, vega: 0.1409 ask price: 1.32, bid price: 1.17
Weekly options: MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.3439, delta: -0.2843, gamma: 0.012, theta: -0.4214, vega: 0.2793 ask price: 5.25, bid price: 5.1
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.3669, delta: -0.1885, gamma: 0.0089, theta: -0.3609, vega: 0.2225 ask price: 3.3, bid price: 3.15
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.3929, delta: -0.1233, gamma: 0.0063, theta: -0.2934, vega: 0.168 ask price: 2.08, bid price: 1.99
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.4232, delta: -0.0817, gamma: 0.0043, theta: -0.2349, vega: 0.1244 ask price: 1.37, bid price: 1.3
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.4658, delta: -0.0589, gamma: 0.0031, theta: -0.2015, vega: 0.0967 ask price: 1.13, bid price: 0.87
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.5036, delta: -0.0419, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.1665, vega: 0.0737 ask price: 0.85, bid price: 0.61
MSFT 400 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.5234, delta: -0.0263, gamma: 0.0014, theta: -0.118, vega: 0.0502 ask price: 0.46, bid price: 0.43
MSFT 390 put expires on 2025-12-05 iv: 0.5594, delta: -0.0187, gamma: 0.001, theta: -0.095, vega: 0.0377 ask price: 0.34, bid price: 0.31
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT demonstrates strong financial health with consistent earnings beats (0 misses in last 8 quarters) and positive management sentiment (CEO: 0.70, CFO: 0.66). The current P/E of 36.53 is near the high end of its 1-year range, suggesting premium valuation but justified by growth prospects. However, insider selling of 38,500 shares at $518-519 raises minor concerns about near-term valuation.
-
Technical: The stock is in a significant pullback, trading at $472.12 near recent lows. Key indicators show oversold conditions:
- RSI at 28.01 (below 30 indicates oversold)
- Price below Bollinger lower band ($471.61)
- MACD negative but showing potential momentum shift
- Current price near 38.2% Fibonacci support at $474.98
- Trading below both 50-day ($508.21) and 200-day ($480.72) EMAs
-
News: Positive sentiment with 4 out of 10 articles bullish, highlighting AI partnerships (Anthropic $30B Azure deal) and strong Azure growth (39% revenue growth). The broader market context shows elevated VIX (23.43) and late-cycle economic signals, but MSFT's AI positioning provides defensive growth characteristics.
-
Option Chain: Put options show elevated IV for near-term strikes (460 put at 29.74% IV), indicating heightened fear. The 460-450 put strikes provide natural support levels, with significant open interest suggesting institutional positioning around these levels.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $465-475 (near current levels and Fibonacci support)
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $505-515 (7-9% gain, near 50-day EMA)
- Long-term: $540-550 (15-17% gain, approaching previous highs)
- Time Horizon: 3-6 months, aligning with next earnings date (2026-01-27)
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss: $455 (3.6% below current price, below key Fibonacci support)
- Position sizing: Given elevated market volatility (VIX 23.43), consider smaller initial position
- Monitor: Fed policy developments and any deterioration in Azure growth metrics
Final Notes: MSFT presents a compelling risk-reward opportunity during this technical pullback. The combination of oversold technicals, strong AI growth catalysts, and solid financials supports a Buy rating. However, investors should be mindful of broader market volatility and consider scaling into positions given the elevated macroeconomic uncertainty reflected in the high VIX and late-cycle economic indicators.