MSFT 2025-11-26
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-26
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-26
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days On 2025-11-04, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at MSFT.
Total of 38500.0 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $518.4907 and $519.2096.
The insiders have 931282.5266 shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 486.03
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 464.89
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 485.87
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 475.5
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 477.46
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 461.29
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $485.5
5-Day Range: $464.89 - $493.57
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-11-26
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | -3.66 | -10.45 | -6.79 |
| 2025-11-24 | -4.07 | -9.94 | -5.87 |
| 2025-11-21 | -3.99 | -8.84 | -4.86 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.26 | -7.12 | -3.86 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.42 | -5.46 | -3.04 |
| 2025-11-18 | -1.71 | -4.15 | -2.44 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.09 | -3.10 | -2.01 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.36 | -3.10 | -1.74 |
| 2025-11-13 | -1.93 | -3.33 | -1.40 |
| 2025-11-12 | -1.96 | -2.88 | -0.92 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | 505.69 |
| 2025-11-24 | 506.86 |
| 2025-11-21 | 508.21 |
| 2025-11-20 | 509.68 |
| 2025-11-19 | 510.95 |
| 2025-11-18 | 511.93 |
| 2025-11-17 | 512.67 |
| 2025-11-14 | 512.88 |
| 2025-11-13 | 512.99 |
| 2025-11-12 | 513.38 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | 480.62 |
| 2025-11-24 | 480.65 |
| 2025-11-21 | 480.72 |
| 2025-11-20 | 480.81 |
| 2025-11-19 | 480.83 |
| 2025-11-18 | 480.77 |
| 2025-11-17 | 480.64 |
| 2025-11-14 | 480.37 |
| 2025-11-13 | 480.07 |
| 2025-11-12 | 479.83 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | 32.58 |
| 2025-11-24 | 29.77 |
| 2025-11-21 | 28.01 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.38 |
| 2025-11-19 | 34.05 |
| 2025-11-18 | 37.25 |
| 2025-11-17 | 45.42 |
| 2025-11-14 | 47.31 |
| 2025-11-13 | 41.52 |
| 2025-11-12 | 46.98 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 36.95
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | 36.95 | 0.59 | 485.00 |
| 2025-11-25 | 37.42 | 0.60 | 473.68 |
| 2025-11-24 | 35.45 | 0.55 | 472.97 |
| 2025-11-21 | 46.53 | 0.87 | 473.10 |
| 2025-11-20 | 47.68 | 0.91 | 482.50 |
| 2025-11-19 | 47.39 | 0.90 | 488.38 |
| 2025-11-18 | 47.25 | 0.90 | 494.52 |
| 2025-11-17 | 49.59 | 0.98 | 508.17 |
| 2025-11-14 | 40.91 | 0.69 | 506.41 |
| 2025-11-13 | 28.38 | 0.40 | 506.03 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 485.5
Latest SMA: 499.54
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 467.71
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 531.36
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 36.85
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 24635206.63
Today's volume: 25699935.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.04
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 505.39
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 439.78 on 2025-05-12 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 23988414 | 2.02 | 48553497 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22626543 | 2.32 | 52549516 |
| 2025-10-15 | 17554205 | 2.98 | 52344880 |
| 2025-09-30 | 20756767 | 2.65 | 54926474 |
| 2025-09-15 | 19272786 | 3.39 | 65238937 |
| 2025-08-29 | 22262516 | 2.63 | 58491994 |
| 2025-08-15 | 20769063 | 2.71 | 56182641 |
| 2025-07-31 | 20009152 | 2.63 | 52644614 |
| 2025-07-15 | 15338949 | 3.51 | 53792695 |
| 2025-06-30 | 23339673 | 2.44 | 56857827 |
Option Chain
----Put Option Chain for MSFT---- Monthly options: MSFT 480 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2263, delta: -0.3916, gamma: 0.0122, theta: -0.1805, vega: 0.5353 ask price: 10.0, bid price: 8.1
MSFT 470 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2364, delta: -0.282, gamma: 0.0103, theta: -0.17, vega: 0.4707 ask price: 6.05, bid price: 5.9
MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2482, delta: -0.1963, gamma: 0.008, theta: -0.1489, vega: 0.3857 ask price: 4.0, bid price: 3.8
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2664, delta: -0.1379, gamma: 0.0059, theta: -0.1288, vega: 0.3071 ask price: 2.9, bid price: 2.48
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2775, delta: -0.0915, gamma: 0.0043, theta: -0.1009, vega: 0.229 ask price: 1.74, bid price: 1.66
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.2947, delta: -0.0629, gamma: 0.003, theta: -0.0812, vega: 0.1723 ask price: 1.2, bid price: 1.12
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3132, delta: -0.0439, gamma: 0.0021, theta: -0.0651, vega: 0.1294 ask price: 0.84, bid price: 0.78
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-26 iv: 0.3332, delta: -0.0313, gamma: 0.0015, theta: -0.0528, vega: 0.0981 ask price: 0.61, bid price: 0.56
Weekly options: MSFT 480 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2286, delta: -0.3736, gamma: 0.0163, theta: -0.2547, vega: 0.3854 ask price: 6.25, bid price: 6.1
MSFT 470 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2397, delta: -0.233, gamma: 0.0125, theta: -0.2203, vega: 0.3112 ask price: 3.5, bid price: 3.3
MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2563, delta: -0.1388, gamma: 0.0085, theta: -0.1727, vega: 0.2251 ask price: 1.98, bid price: 1.79
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2788, delta: -0.0839, gamma: 0.0054, theta: -0.132, vega: 0.1568 ask price: 1.22, bid price: 1.01
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2967, delta: -0.0483, gamma: 0.0033, theta: -0.092, vega: 0.1021 ask price: 0.64, bid price: 0.6
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3356, delta: -0.0356, gamma: 0.0023, theta: -0.0817, vega: 0.0798 ask price: 0.61, bid price: 0.38
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3494, delta: -0.0198, gamma: 0.0014, theta: -0.0523, vega: 0.0489 ask price: 0.28, bid price: 0.25
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3804, delta: -0.014, gamma: 0.0009, theta: -0.0423, vega: 0.0362 ask price: 0.21, bid price: 0.18
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT demonstrates strong financial health with consistent earnings beats (0 misses in last 8 quarters) and positive management sentiment (CEO: 0.70, CFO: 0.66). The current P/E of 36.53 is near the high end of its 5-year range, indicating premium valuation, but justified by strong earnings growth (EPS of 3.72 vs consensus 3.66). Insider selling of 38,500 shares is notable but represents a small portion of total holdings.
-
Technical: The stock is in a short-term downtrend but showing potential stabilization. Current price ($485.5) is near the 25th percentile of recent range and below key EMAs (50-day: $505.69, 200-day: $480.62). RSI at 32.58 suggests oversold conditions, while MACD remains negative but improving. The stock is trading near the 200-day EMA, which often provides support.
-
News: Mixed sentiment with 3 positive, 1 negative, and 6 neutral articles. Positive developments include AI partnerships and market positioning, while concerns focus on AI infrastructure costs. The broader market context shows late-cycle economic conditions with elevated valuations (Buffett Indicator 215.75%) but the Fed has begun easing.
-
Option Chain: Put options show elevated IV for lower strikes (410-430 range), suggesting market sees limited downside below $430. The 480 put with December expiry has significant open interest, indicating this level as key short-term resistance/support.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $475-485 (near 200-day EMA and recent support)
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $505-515 (4-6% gain, near 50-day EMA resistance)
- Long-term: $530-550 (9-13% gain, toward recent highs)
- Time Horizon: 1-3 months, with upcoming earnings on January 27, 2026 as potential catalyst
Final Notes: MSFT presents a favorable risk-reward opportunity after recent pullback. The technical oversold condition combined with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuation create a buying opportunity. Key risks include broader market volatility and AI infrastructure costs. Consider scaling into position and using stop-loss around $460 (below recent lows and Fibonacci 38.2% support).