MSFT 2025-12-01
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-01
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-01
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days On 2025-11-04, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at MSFT.
Total of 38500.0 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $518.4907 and $519.2096.
The insiders have 931282.5266 shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 486.03
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 464.89
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 484.65
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 475.5
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 476.45
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 462.47
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $486.74
5-Day Range: $464.89 - $492.63
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-01
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | -1.33 | -9.10 | -7.77 |
| 2025-11-26 | -2.61 | -10.05 | -7.44 |
| 2025-11-25 | -3.66 | -10.45 | -6.79 |
| 2025-11-24 | -4.07 | -9.94 | -5.87 |
| 2025-11-21 | -3.99 | -8.84 | -4.86 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.26 | -7.12 | -3.86 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.42 | -5.46 | -3.04 |
| 2025-11-18 | -1.71 | -4.15 | -2.44 |
| 2025-11-17 | -1.09 | -3.10 | -2.01 |
| 2025-11-14 | -1.36 | -3.10 | -1.74 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 504.39 |
| 2025-11-26 | 504.90 |
| 2025-11-25 | 505.69 |
| 2025-11-24 | 506.86 |
| 2025-11-21 | 508.20 |
| 2025-11-20 | 509.68 |
| 2025-11-19 | 510.95 |
| 2025-11-18 | 511.92 |
| 2025-11-17 | 512.66 |
| 2025-11-14 | 512.88 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 480.71 |
| 2025-11-26 | 480.60 |
| 2025-11-25 | 480.55 |
| 2025-11-24 | 480.59 |
| 2025-11-21 | 480.65 |
| 2025-11-20 | 480.74 |
| 2025-11-19 | 480.76 |
| 2025-11-18 | 480.70 |
| 2025-11-17 | 480.57 |
| 2025-11-14 | 480.30 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 44.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | 39.90 |
| 2025-11-25 | 32.53 |
| 2025-11-24 | 29.71 |
| 2025-11-21 | 27.96 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.32 |
| 2025-11-19 | 33.98 |
| 2025-11-18 | 37.19 |
| 2025-11-17 | 45.35 |
| 2025-11-14 | 47.24 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 33.6
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 33.60 | 0.51 | 487.08 |
| 2025-11-28 | 44.05 | 0.79 | 490.43 |
| 2025-11-26 | 36.95 | 0.59 | 485.00 |
| 2025-11-25 | 37.42 | 0.60 | 473.68 |
| 2025-11-24 | 35.45 | 0.55 | 472.97 |
| 2025-11-21 | 46.53 | 0.87 | 473.10 |
| 2025-11-20 | 47.68 | 0.91 | 482.50 |
| 2025-11-19 | 47.39 | 0.90 | 488.38 |
| 2025-11-18 | 47.25 | 0.90 | 494.52 |
| 2025-11-17 | 49.59 | 0.98 | 508.17 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 486.74
Latest SMA: 496.3
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 468.01
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 524.58
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 51.24
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 24732544.47
Today's volume: 23951591.0
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.97
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 496.46
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 448.73 on 2025-05-16 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 23988414 | 2.02 | 48553497 |
| 2025-10-31 | 22626543 | 2.32 | 52549516 |
| 2025-10-15 | 17554205 | 2.98 | 52344880 |
| 2025-09-30 | 20756767 | 2.65 | 54926474 |
| 2025-09-15 | 19272786 | 3.39 | 65238937 |
| 2025-08-29 | 22262516 | 2.63 | 58491994 |
| 2025-08-15 | 20769063 | 2.71 | 56182641 |
| 2025-07-31 | 20009152 | 2.63 | 52644614 |
| 2025-07-15 | 15338949 | 3.51 | 53792695 |
| 2025-06-30 | 23339673 | 2.44 | 56857827 |
Option Chain
----Put Option Chain for MSFT---- Monthly options: MSFT 480 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2131, delta: -0.38, gamma: 0.0124, theta: -0.1622, vega: 0.5487 ask price: 8.8, bid price: 8.05
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2228, delta: -0.2695, gamma: 0.0103, theta: -0.1513, vega: 0.4761 ask price: 5.7, bid price: 5.25
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2331, delta: -0.1836, gamma: 0.0079, theta: -0.1296, vega: 0.3829 ask price: 3.65, bid price: 3.3
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2457, delta: -0.1228, gamma: 0.0057, theta: -0.1059, vega: 0.293 ask price: 2.36, bid price: 2.08
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2632, delta: -0.0842, gamma: 0.0041, theta: -0.0871, vega: 0.2227 ask price: 1.75, bid price: 1.27
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.2846, delta: -0.0602, gamma: 0.0029, theta: -0.0734, vega: 0.1722 ask price: 1.24, bid price: 0.96
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.3034, delta: -0.0424, gamma: 0.0021, theta: -0.0594, vega: 0.1301 ask price: 0.91, bid price: 0.65
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.315, delta: -0.0273, gamma: 0.0014, theta: -0.0432, vega: 0.0907 ask price: 0.53, bid price: 0.45
Weekly options: MSFT 480 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2254, delta: -0.3427, gamma: 0.0193, theta: -0.2997, vega: 0.3105 ask price: 4.55, bid price: 4.35
MSFT 470 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.241, delta: -0.1882, gamma: 0.0132, theta: -0.2396, vega: 0.2279 ask price: 2.22, bid price: 2.07
MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2551, delta: -0.0928, gamma: 0.0077, theta: -0.1578, vega: 0.1403 ask price: 1.11, bid price: 0.79
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.2755, delta: -0.0456, gamma: 0.0041, theta: -0.0989, vega: 0.081 ask price: 0.49, bid price: 0.4
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3037, delta: -0.0248, gamma: 0.0023, theta: -0.0665, vega: 0.0491 ask price: 0.26, bid price: 0.23
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3336, delta: -0.0143, gamma: 0.0013, theta: -0.0458, vega: 0.0307 ask price: 0.16, bid price: 0.13
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.3667, delta: -0.009, gamma: 0.0008, theta: -0.0337, vega: 0.0205 ask price: 0.11, bid price: 0.08
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-12 iv: 0.4037, delta: -0.0062, gamma: 0.0005, theta: -0.0269, vega: 0.0148 ask price: 0.08, bid price: 0.06
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT demonstrates robust financial health. The most recent EPS of 3.72 beat consensus (3.66), and the company has not missed earnings estimates in the past 8 quarters. Historical average EPS is 3.18, with a high of 3.65, indicating consistent profitability. The current P/E of 36.53 is at the high end of its 1-year range (29.12–36.53), suggesting premium valuation but justified by strong earnings growth. Management sentiment from the Q3 earnings call is positive (CEO: 0.70, CFO: 0.66). However, insider selling of 38,500 shares in early November, while not excessive, warrants monitoring.
-
Technical: The stock is currently trading at $486.74, near the lower end of its recent range (5-day: $464.89–$492.63). Key technical indicators show mixed signals:
- Trend: The price is below the 50-day EMA (~504) but above the 200-day EMA (~481), indicating short-term weakness but long-term uptrend support.
- Momentum: RSI (44.87) is neutral, recovering from oversold levels (recent low of 27.96). MACD histogram remains negative but improving (from -4.07 to -1.33).
- Support/Resistance: Strong support at the 200-day EMA (~481) and the Bollinger lower band (~468). Resistance near the 50-day EMA (~504) and recent highs (~492).
- Volume: Volume ratio of 0.97 indicates average participation, with no panic selling.
- Short Interest: Days to cover at 2.02 (as of Nov 14) is moderate, reducing squeeze risk.
-
News: Sentiment is broadly positive, with 5 out of 10 recent articles bullish, highlighting MSFT’s role as a top holding in major ETFs and its long-term growth trajectory. No negative news articles were found. Macroeconomic conditions show a late-cycle expansion with elevated valuations (Buffett Indicator at 224%), but the yield curve has steepened, and inflation is moderating, supporting a stable backdrop for large-cap tech.
-
Option Chain: Put options show elevated implied volatility (IV) for out-of-the-money strikes (e.g., 420 put IV at 0.3034 for Jan expiry), indicating some downside protection demand. The 480 put (Jan expiry) has a delta of -0.38, suggesting moderate hedging activity near current levels.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $475–$485. This aligns with:
- The 200-day EMA (~481) and Bollinger lower band (~468).
- Technical support at the "price below mean by one standard deviation" ($476.45).
- Strike prices of put options (e.g., 480 put) where delta indicates increased hedging.
-
Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $504 (4–6% gain), targeting the 50-day EMA and recent resistance.
- Long-term: $525+ (8%+ gain), aligning with the upper Bollinger band and prior highs, contingent on strong Q4 earnings (Jan 27, 2026).
-
Time Horizon: 3–6 months, leveraging the upcoming earnings catalyst and potential technical rebound.
Final Notes:
- Risks: High P/E may limit upside if growth slows; insider selling, though small, is a watch item. Macro overvaluation (Buffett Indicator) suggests broad market vulnerability.
- Opportunities: Positive earnings momentum, strong ETF inclusion, and AI/cloud tailwinds support long-term growth. Use the current pullback as a risk-managed entry.
- Stop-Loss: Set at $464 (below the recent low of $464.89 and Bollinger lower band) to limit downside to ~4–5%.