MSFT 2025-12-04
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-04
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-04
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
On 2025-12-03, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at MSFT.
Total of 12.8K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $491.516 and $491.516.
The insiders have 129.3K shares left in the company.
On 2025-11-04, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at MSFT.
Total of 38.5K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $518.4907 and $519.2096.
The insiders have 931.3K shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 483.73
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 464.89
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 481.93
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 468.27
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 474.96
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 462.44
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $477.73
5-Day Range: $475.20 - $493.50
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-04
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | -0.03 | -7.98 | -7.96 |
| 2025-12-01 | -0.72 | -8.68 | -7.95 |
| 2025-11-28 | -1.33 | -9.10 | -7.77 |
| 2025-11-26 | -2.61 | -10.05 | -7.44 |
| 2025-11-25 | -3.66 | -10.45 | -6.79 |
| 2025-11-24 | -4.07 | -9.94 | -5.87 |
| 2025-11-21 | -3.99 | -8.84 | -4.86 |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.26 | -7.12 | -3.86 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.42 | -5.46 | -3.04 |
| 2025-11-18 | -1.71 | -4.15 | -2.44 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 503.16 |
| 2025-12-01 | 503.70 |
| 2025-11-28 | 504.39 |
| 2025-11-26 | 504.90 |
| 2025-11-25 | 505.69 |
| 2025-11-24 | 506.86 |
| 2025-11-21 | 508.20 |
| 2025-11-20 | 509.68 |
| 2025-11-19 | 510.95 |
| 2025-11-18 | 511.92 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 480.87 |
| 2025-12-01 | 480.77 |
| 2025-11-28 | 480.71 |
| 2025-11-26 | 480.60 |
| 2025-11-25 | 480.55 |
| 2025-11-24 | 480.59 |
| 2025-11-21 | 480.65 |
| 2025-11-20 | 480.74 |
| 2025-11-19 | 480.76 |
| 2025-11-18 | 480.70 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 44.35 |
| 2025-12-01 | 41.85 |
| 2025-11-28 | 44.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | 39.90 |
| 2025-11-25 | 32.53 |
| 2025-11-24 | 29.71 |
| 2025-11-21 | 27.96 |
| 2025-11-20 | 30.32 |
| 2025-11-19 | 33.98 |
| 2025-11-18 | 37.19 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 33.57
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 33.57 | 0.51 | 479.06 |
| 2025-12-02 | 33.54 | 0.50 | 489.94 |
| 2025-12-01 | 33.60 | 0.51 | 487.08 |
| 2025-11-28 | 44.05 | 0.79 | 490.43 |
| 2025-11-26 | 36.95 | 0.59 | 485.00 |
| 2025-11-25 | 37.42 | 0.60 | 473.68 |
| 2025-11-24 | 35.45 | 0.55 | 472.97 |
| 2025-11-21 | 46.53 | 0.87 | 473.10 |
| 2025-11-20 | 47.68 | 0.91 | 482.50 |
| 2025-11-19 | 47.39 | 0.90 | 488.38 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 477.73
Latest SMA: 493.11
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 467.05
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 519.17
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 52.73
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 25.5M
Today's volume: 34.6M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.36
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 494.17
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 448.91 on 2025-05-23 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 24M | 2.02 | 48.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.6M | 2.32 | 52.5M |
| 2025-10-15 | 17.6M | 2.98 | 52.3M |
| 2025-09-30 | 20.8M | 2.65 | 54.9M |
| 2025-09-15 | 19.3M | 3.39 | 65.2M |
| 2025-08-29 | 22.3M | 2.63 | 58.5M |
| 2025-08-15 | 20.8M | 2.71 | 56.2M |
| 2025-07-31 | 20M | 2.63 | 52.6M |
| 2025-07-15 | 15.3M | 3.51 | 53.8M |
| 2025-06-30 | 23.3M | 2.44 | 56.9M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2334, delta: -0.3533, gamma: 0.0116, theta: -0.1801, vega: 0.5108 ask price: 9.1, bid price: 6.8
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2464, delta: -0.2532, gamma: 0.0094, theta: -0.1673, vega: 0.4397 ask price: 5.55, bid price: 5.1
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.255, delta: -0.1723, gamma: 0.0073, theta: -0.1401, vega: 0.3508 ask price: 3.5, bid price: 3.2
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2672, delta: -0.1153, gamma: 0.0053, theta: -0.113, vega: 0.2673 ask price: 2.24, bid price: 2.03
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2812, delta: -0.0766, gamma: 0.0037, theta: -0.0887, vega: 0.1977 ask price: 1.47, bid price: 1.28
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2948, delta: -0.05, gamma: 0.0025, theta: -0.0671, vega: 0.1418 ask price: 0.93, bid price: 0.82
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3131, delta: -0.0342, gamma: 0.0018, theta: -0.0526, vega: 0.1042 ask price: 0.67, bid price: 0.53
MSFT 400 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.324, delta: -0.0212, gamma: 0.0011, theta: -0.0366, vega: 0.0699 ask price: 0.45, bid price: 0.27
Weekly options:
MSFT 470 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.2595, delta: -0.3362, gamma: 0.014, theta: -0.2793, vega: 0.3662 ask price: 6.25, bid price: 5.7
MSFT 460 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.2669, delta: -0.2126, gamma: 0.0108, theta: -0.2319, vega: 0.2914 ask price: 3.5, bid price: 3.15
MSFT 450 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.2687, delta: -0.1184, gamma: 0.0073, theta: -0.1608, vega: 0.1989 ask price: 1.92, bid price: 1.29
MSFT 440 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.3054, delta: -0.0808, gamma: 0.0049, theta: -0.1393, vega: 0.1504 ask price: 1.28, bid price: 1.03
MSFT 430 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.3221, delta: -0.0473, gamma: 0.0031, theta: -0.0972, vega: 0.0991 ask price: 0.7, bid price: 0.6
MSFT 420 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.3416, delta: -0.0281, gamma: 0.0019, theta: -0.0677, vega: 0.0648 ask price: 0.4, bid price: 0.36
MSFT 410 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.3664, delta: -0.0179, gamma: 0.0012, theta: -0.0498, vega: 0.0443 ask price: 0.27, bid price: 0.22
MSFT 400 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.3861, delta: -0.0107, gamma: 0.0007, theta: -0.0336, vega: 0.0283 ask price: 0.19, bid price: 0.1
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a cautious bias towards a potential short-term tactical Buy on a deeper pullback)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT exhibits strong fundamental health. The company consistently beats earnings estimates (0 misses in last 8 quarters), with the most recent EPS of $3.72 exceeding consensus. Management sentiment (CEO: 0.70, CFO: 0.66) is positive. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a P/E of 36.53, near the top of its 1-year range (29.12 - 36.53). Recent insider selling (51.3K shares in the last 30 days) is a minor cautionary note, though the amounts are small relative to total holdings.
-
Technical: The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend and is testing significant support levels. The current price of $477.73 is below the 50-day EMA (~503) and the 200-day EMA (~481), indicating bearish momentum. Key technical signals are mixed:
- Bearish: MACD histogram is negative and declining, and the stock is trading below its 20-day SMA ($493.11) and near the Bollinger Lower Band ($467.05). The ADX of 52.73 confirms a strong trend (currently down).
- Oversold/Stabilizing: The RSI (44.35) and MFI (33.57) have recovered from deeply oversold levels (RSI ~27) but remain below 50, suggesting selling pressure may be abating but buyers are not yet in control. The price is near the 38.2% Fibonacci support level ($474.98) from the 2025 swing high/low.
-
News: Recent news sentiment is mixed but leans slightly positive (4 positive, 1 negative out of 10 sampled). The negative article highlighted a report of lowered AI sales quotas, which sparked a sell-off. Positive articles focus on Microsoft's strong balance sheet, cloud leadership, and quantum computing progress. The macro backdrop, as detailed in the SPY report, suggests a late-cycle economy with high market valuations (Buffett Indicator: 224%), recommending a cautious, range-bound approach for the broader market.
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Option Chain: The put option chain shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for out-of-the-money puts, especially for weekly expiries (IV up to ~38.6% for the $400 put). This indicates higher perceived near-term downside risk and cost of protection. The high delta on the $470 monthly put (-0.35) suggests the market assigns a meaningful probability of the stock staying below $470 by early January.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Given the strong downtrend and premium valuation, aggressive buying is not advised. A risk-managed entry would be in two zones:
- Primary Zone: $468 - $474. This aligns with the recent low ($464.89), the Bollinger Lower Band ($467.05), the price -2 standard deviations level ($462.44), and the 38.2% Fibonacci support ($474.98). A confirmed bounce from this area (e.g., a bullish reversal candle with strong volume) would offer a better risk/reward.
- Secondary/Breakout Zone: Above $493. A close above the 20-day SMA and the recent 5-day high would signal a potential trend reversal and could be used for a momentum-based entry.
-
Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Trade): Initial target at the 50-day EMA (~$503), followed by the 20-day SMA/Bollinger Mid-Band (~$493). A move to $518-$525 (previous resistance) is a more aggressive target.
- Long-term (Hold): A hold would target a retest of the 52-week high (~$553), contingent on a broader market recovery and strong Q4 earnings (reporting Jan 27, 2026).
-
Stop-Loss: A close below $462 (below the -2 STD level and recent low) would invalidate the bullish setup for a trade and suggest further downside, potentially toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $450.12.
-
Time Horizon: Short- to Medium-Term (1-3 months), aligned with the upcoming earnings catalyst in late January. This is primarily a tactical, technical bounce play within a larger corrective phase.
Final Notes: MSFT is a high-quality company in a corrective phase within a late-cycle, high-valuation market. The recommendation is Neutral because the current price offers an unclear immediate risk/reward. The strategy advocates patience for a better technical entry point. Investors with a long-term horizon could consider initiating a small position in the $468-$474 support zone, but should be prepared for volatility and have a defined stop-loss. The high P/E and insider selling suggest limited margin for error, making precise entry critical.