MSFT 2025-12-18
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-18
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-18
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 476.84
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 464.89
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 475.0
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 468.27
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 470.66
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 463.99
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $476.12
5-Day Range: $470.88 - $486.03
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-18
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 0.16 | -6.57 | -6.73 |
| 2025-12-15 | 0.26 | -6.51 | -6.77 |
| 2025-12-12 | 0.65 | -6.18 | -6.83 |
| 2025-12-11 | 0.95 | -6.05 | -6.99 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0.94 | -6.29 | -7.23 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1.45 | -6.02 | -7.46 |
| 2025-12-08 | 0.88 | -6.94 | -7.83 |
| 2025-12-05 | 0.13 | -7.92 | -8.05 |
| 2025-12-04 | -0.18 | -8.26 | -8.08 |
| 2025-12-03 | -0.30 | -8.33 | -8.03 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 495.99 |
| 2025-12-15 | 496.79 |
| 2025-12-12 | 497.69 |
| 2025-12-11 | 498.47 |
| 2025-12-10 | 499.08 |
| 2025-12-09 | 499.92 |
| 2025-12-08 | 500.24 |
| 2025-12-05 | 500.62 |
| 2025-12-04 | 501.33 |
| 2025-12-03 | 502.17 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 480.96 |
| 2025-12-15 | 481.00 |
| 2025-12-12 | 481.07 |
| 2025-12-11 | 481.09 |
| 2025-12-10 | 481.07 |
| 2025-12-09 | 481.09 |
| 2025-12-08 | 480.98 |
| 2025-12-05 | 480.88 |
| 2025-12-04 | 480.86 |
| 2025-12-03 | 480.86 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 40.79 |
| 2025-12-15 | 39.51 |
| 2025-12-12 | 41.47 |
| 2025-12-11 | 44.17 |
| 2025-12-10 | 40.60 |
| 2025-12-09 | 48.51 |
| 2025-12-08 | 47.80 |
| 2025-12-05 | 42.04 |
| 2025-12-04 | 40.23 |
| 2025-12-03 | 37.82 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 56.59
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | 56.59 | 1.30 | 477.04 |
| 2025-12-16 | 44.17 | 0.79 | 475.05 |
| 2025-12-15 | 52.51 | 1.11 | 476.02 |
| 2025-12-12 | 52.34 | 1.10 | 479.11 |
| 2025-12-11 | 60.00 | 1.50 | 481.79 |
| 2025-12-10 | 60.20 | 1.51 | 479.30 |
| 2025-12-09 | 74.36 | 2.90 | 490.88 |
| 2025-12-08 | 62.66 | 1.68 | 489.23 |
| 2025-12-05 | 51.79 | 1.07 | 481.81 |
| 2025-12-04 | 42.27 | 0.73 | 479.55 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 476.12
Latest SMA: 481.78
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 469.05
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 494.51
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 26.72
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 24.9M
Today's volume: 24.5M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.99
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 482.33
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 456.89 on 2025-06-02 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 26M | 2.38 | 61.9M |
| 2025-11-14 | 24M | 2.02 | 48.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 22.6M | 2.32 | 52.5M |
| 2025-10-15 | 17.6M | 2.98 | 52.3M |
| 2025-09-30 | 20.8M | 2.65 | 54.9M |
| 2025-09-15 | 19.3M | 3.39 | 65.2M |
| 2025-08-29 | 22.3M | 2.63 | 58.5M |
| 2025-08-15 | 20.8M | 2.71 | 56.2M |
| 2025-07-31 | 20M | 2.63 | 52.6M |
| 2025-07-15 | 15.3M | 3.51 | 53.8M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2331, delta: -0.3723, gamma: 0.0118, theta: -0.1822, vega: 0.5182 ask price: 8.6, bid price: 8.45
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2403, delta: -0.2643, gamma: 0.0099, theta: -0.1659, vega: 0.448 ask price: 5.55, bid price: 5.4
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2497, delta: -0.1798, gamma: 0.0077, theta: -0.1403, vega: 0.3592 ask price: 3.5, bid price: 3.4
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2631, delta: -0.1207, gamma: 0.0056, theta: -0.1145, vega: 0.2752 ask price: 2.25, bid price: 2.18
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2776, delta: -0.0803, gamma: 0.0039, theta: -0.0904, vega: 0.2042 ask price: 1.46, bid price: 1.4
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2935, delta: -0.0536, gamma: 0.0027, theta: -0.0703, vega: 0.1493 ask price: 0.96, bid price: 0.92
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3105, delta: -0.0361, gamma: 0.0019, theta: -0.0543, vega: 0.1085 ask price: 0.65, bid price: 0.61
MSFT 400 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3284, delta: -0.0245, gamma: 0.0013, theta: -0.0419, vega: 0.0788 ask price: 0.45, bid price: 0.41
Weekly options:
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2302, delta: -0.3446, gamma: 0.016, theta: -0.2474, vega: 0.3684 ask price: 5.55, bid price: 5.35
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2399, delta: -0.2079, gamma: 0.0119, theta: -0.2043, vega: 0.2866 ask price: 2.93, bid price: 2.84
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2538, delta: -0.1178, gamma: 0.0078, theta: -0.1507, vega: 0.1976 ask price: 1.54, bid price: 1.46
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2711, delta: -0.0656, gamma: 0.0047, theta: -0.1049, vega: 0.1277 ask price: 0.82, bid price: 0.77
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.2918, delta: -0.0373, gamma: 0.0028, theta: -0.0724, vega: 0.0815 ask price: 0.46, bid price: 0.43
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3142, delta: -0.0218, gamma: 0.0017, theta: -0.05, vega: 0.0521 ask price: 0.27, bid price: 0.25
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3383, delta: -0.0132, gamma: 0.001, theta: -0.0353, vega: 0.034 ask price: 0.17, bid price: 0.15
MSFT 400 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3645, delta: -0.0084, gamma: 0.0006, theta: -0.0258, vega: 0.023 ask price: 0.12, bid price: 0.09
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
Financial:
- Earnings Strength: MSFT’s most recent EPS of $3.72 beat consensus ($3.66) and is above the 8‑quarter average ($3.18). The company has not missed estimates in the past two years, demonstrating consistent execution.
- Valuation: The current P/E of 36.5 is at the high end of its 1‑year range (29.1–36.5), indicating the stock is fully valued but not excessively stretched relative to recent history.
- Management Sentiment: CEO and CFO sentiment scores (0.70 and 0.66) are moderately positive, suggesting confidence in the business outlook.
- Insider Activity: No insider sales in the last 90 days is a neutral‑to‑positive signal.
Technical:
- Price Position: Current price ($476.12) is near the 25th percentile of the past 20 days ($476.84) and just above the 20‑day Bollinger lower band ($469.05), indicating a short‑term oversold condition.
- Trend & Momentum: The stock is below its 50‑day EMA (~$496) but above its 200‑day EMA (~$481), suggesting a near‑term pullback within a longer‑term uptrend. MACD histogram has turned positive in recent days (from –0.30 to +0.16), signaling potential momentum reversal. RSI (40.8) is neutral‑to‑weak, not yet oversold.
- Support Levels: Strong support exists at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($474.98), the 20‑day low ($464.89), and the 200‑day EMA (~$481).
- Volume & Short Interest: Volume is average (ratio 0.99); short interest is moderate (2.38 days to cover) and stable, indicating no extreme bearish positioning.
News:
- Sentiment: Recent news sentiment is neutral‑to‑positive (3 positive, 0 negative out of 10 articles). MSFT is consistently framed as an AI leader and a core holding in tech portfolios.
- Macro Context: The broader market (SPY) is in a late‑cycle expansion with elevated valuations (Buffett Indicator 226%), but the yield curve has steepened, reducing recession fears. MSFT’s defensive qualities (recurring revenue, cloud dominance) may offer relative safety in a volatile macro environment.
Option Chain:
- Implied Volatility: IV for near‑term puts is moderate (~23–25% for Jan‑16), suggesting options are not pricing extreme downside fear.
- Strike Clustering: The $470–$480 put strikes show elevated open interest, indicating these levels are viewed as near‑term support/resistance zones.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone $470–$475 (near the 38.2% Fibonacci support and the Bollinger lower band). A break below $465 would invalidate the setup.
- Profit Targets:
- Short‑term (2–4 weeks): $495–$500 (50‑day EMA and upper Bollinger band resistance).
- Long‑term (3–6 months): $520+ (prior highs) if earnings (Jan‑27) beat and AI narrative strengthens.
- Time Horizon: Weeks to months, with the upcoming January earnings report as a key catalyst.
Final Notes:
- Risks: High P/E leaves MSFT sensitive to rate‑driven multiple compression. A broader market correction (SPY at all‑time highs) could drag the stock lower despite strong fundamentals.
- Opportunity: The current pullback to support, combined with positive earnings momentum and a constructive long‑term trend, offers a favorable risk/reward entry for a high‑quality name. Use a stop‑loss below $464 (20‑day low) to limit downside.