MSFT 2025-12-30
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-30
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-30
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CEO | 0.70 |
| CFO | 0.66 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 478.55
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 470.88
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 477.89
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 472.52
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 474.88
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 469.62
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $487.1
5-Day Range: $482.69 - $489.16
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2025-12-30
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | -2.65 | -4.54 | 1.90 |
| 2025-12-24 | -3.17 | -5.02 | 1.84 |
| 2025-12-23 | -3.83 | -5.48 | 1.65 |
| 2025-12-22 | -4.50 | -5.89 | 1.40 |
| 2025-12-19 | -5.08 | -6.24 | 1.16 |
| 2025-12-18 | -5.86 | -6.53 | 0.67 |
| 2025-12-17 | -6.57 | -6.70 | 0.13 |
| 2025-12-16 | -6.57 | -6.73 | 0.16 |
| 2025-12-15 | -6.51 | -6.77 | 0.26 |
| 2025-12-12 | -6.18 | -6.83 | 0.65 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 493.32 |
| 2025-12-24 | 493.54 |
| 2025-12-23 | 493.77 |
| 2025-12-22 | 494.05 |
| 2025-12-19 | 494.43 |
| 2025-12-18 | 494.77 |
| 2025-12-17 | 495.21 |
| 2025-12-16 | 495.99 |
| 2025-12-15 | 496.79 |
| 2025-12-12 | 497.69 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 481.21 |
| 2025-12-24 | 481.14 |
| 2025-12-23 | 481.07 |
| 2025-12-22 | 481.02 |
| 2025-12-19 | 480.98 |
| 2025-12-18 | 480.93 |
| 2025-12-17 | 480.90 |
| 2025-12-16 | 480.94 |
| 2025-12-15 | 480.99 |
| 2025-12-12 | 481.05 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 50.23 |
| 2025-12-24 | 50.51 |
| 2025-12-23 | 49.52 |
| 2025-12-22 | 47.91 |
| 2025-12-19 | 48.66 |
| 2025-12-18 | 47.18 |
| 2025-12-17 | 40.76 |
| 2025-12-16 | 40.92 |
| 2025-12-15 | 39.65 |
| 2025-12-12 | 41.61 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 71.77
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 486.54 | 2.54 | 71.77 |
| 2025-12-26 | 487.26 | 2.19 | 68.69 |
| 2025-12-24 | 487.34 | 2.88 | 74.20 |
| 2025-12-23 | 486.47 | 1.80 | 64.28 |
| 2025-12-22 | 485.45 | 1.80 | 64.30 |
| 2025-12-19 | 485.42 | 1.85 | 64.94 |
| 2025-12-18 | 483.82 | 1.37 | 57.76 |
| 2025-12-17 | 477.04 | 1.30 | 56.58 |
| 2025-12-16 | 475.05 | 0.79 | 44.17 |
| 2025-12-15 | 476.02 | 1.11 | 52.51 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 487.1
Latest SMA: 483.69
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 473.22
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 494.17
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 13.63
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 24.4M
Today's volume: 10.9M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.45
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 483.19
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 464.89 on 2025-11-25 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 474.98
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
| 2025-08-15 | 56.2M | 20.8M | 2.71 |
| 2025-07-31 | 52.6M | 20M | 2.63 |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
MSFT 480 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.2629, delta: -0.4051, gamma: 0.0102, theta: -0.2081, vega: 0.5578 ask price: 11.9, bid price: 11.1
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.2629, delta: -0.3048, gamma: 0.0093, theta: -0.1913, vega: 0.5039 ask price: 8.1, bid price: 7.25
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.2686, delta: -0.2201, gamma: 0.0077, theta: -0.1675, vega: 0.4262 ask price: 5.45, bid price: 4.7
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.2835, delta: -0.1593, gamma: 0.0059, theta: -0.1464, vega: 0.3491 ask price: 3.75, bid price: 3.35
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.2945, delta: -0.1111, gamma: 0.0045, theta: -0.1197, vega: 0.2725 ask price: 2.5, bid price: 2.23
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.3063, delta: -0.0762, gamma: 0.0033, theta: -0.0948, vega: 0.2062 ask price: 1.75, bid price: 1.38
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.3198, delta: -0.0523, gamma: 0.0023, theta: -0.0742, vega: 0.1538 ask price: 1.3, bid price: 0.8
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-30
iv: 0.3385, delta: -0.0376, gamma: 0.0017, theta: -0.0604, vega: 0.1179 ask price: 1.03, bid price: 0.49
Weekly options:
MSFT 480 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.1732, delta: -0.3209, gamma: 0.0245, theta: -0.2217, vega: 0.3021 ask price: 3.15, bid price: 3.05
MSFT 470 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.1941, delta: -0.1484, gamma: 0.0141, theta: -0.1649, vega: 0.1953 ask price: 1.3, bid price: 1.25
MSFT 460 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.2211, delta: -0.0694, gamma: 0.0071, theta: -0.1096, vega: 0.1125 ask price: 0.6, bid price: 0.56
MSFT 450 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.2552, delta: -0.0372, gamma: 0.0038, theta: -0.0776, vega: 0.0685 ask price: 0.34, bid price: 0.31
MSFT 440 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.2936, delta: -0.0228, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.0599, vega: 0.0457 ask price: 0.23, bid price: 0.2
MSFT 430 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.3301, delta: -0.0145, gamma: 0.0013, theta: -0.0458, vega: 0.031 ask price: 0.16, bid price: 0.13
MSFT 420 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.368, delta: -0.0098, gamma: 0.0008, theta: -0.0365, vega: 0.0221 ask price: 0.12, bid price: 0.09
MSFT 410 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.4038, delta: -0.0066, gamma: 0.0005, theta: -0.0284, vega: 0.0157 ask price: 0.09, bid price: 0.06
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT demonstrates robust financial health. The most recent EPS of $3.72 beat consensus ($3.66), continuing a streak of 8 consecutive quarters without an earnings miss. The historical average EPS over the last 8 quarters is $3.18, with a high of $3.65, indicating consistent and improving profitability. However, the current P/E of 36.53 is at the high end of its 1-year range (29.12–36.53), suggesting the stock is fully valued but not excessively so relative to recent history. Management sentiment from the Q3 earnings call is positive (CEO: 0.70, CFO: 0.66), reflecting confidence. No insider transactions in the last 90 days reduce concerns about internal selling pressure.
-
Technical: The stock is trading at $487.1, above its 200-day EMA (~$481.21) but below its 50-day EMA (~$493.32), indicating a near-term consolidation within a broader uptrend. Key support levels include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $474.98, the Bollinger lower band at $473.22, and the 20-day low of $470.88. The RSI is neutral (~50), and the MACD histogram has turned positive (1.90 on Dec 26), signaling potential momentum reversal. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is elevated at 71.77, suggesting strong buying pressure but nearing overbought territory. Volume is low today (0.45x 30-day average), indicating lack of conviction in the current move.
-
News: Sentiment is neutral to slightly positive, with 2 out of 10 recent articles rated positive and none negative. MSFT is frequently cited as a core holding in growth ETFs and a leader in AI, supporting its long-term narrative. The macro environment presents mixed signals: inflation remains sticky (CPI at 325, Core PCE at 127), but the yield curve is positively sloped (10Y-2Y at +0.7%), reducing near-term recession fears. The SPY is at all-time highs but overvalued per the Buffett Indicator (222.2%), suggesting broad market risk.
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Option Chain: Implied volatility for monthly puts is moderate (~26–34%), with higher IV for deeper OTM strikes, reflecting elevated demand for downside protection. The 480 put (Jan 30 expiry) has a delta of -0.41, indicating traders see $480 as a near-term support level. The put skew steepens below $470, suggesting increased perceived risk at lower prices.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $474–$480 (near the 38.2% Fibonacci support, Bollinger lower band, and key put strike).
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $505–$510 (5–7% gain, near the 23.6% Fibonacci level and recent highs).
- Long-term: $530+ (if earnings on Jan 27 beat expectations).
- Time Horizon: 1–3 months, aligning with the upcoming earnings date (Jan 27) as a catalyst.
Final Notes:
- Risks: High P/E leaves room for multiple compression if growth disappoints. Broad market overvaluation (SPY) increases systemic risk.
- Opportunities: AI leadership and consistent execution could drive further upside post-earnings. A pullback to support offers a favorable risk/reward entry.
- Stop-Loss: Consider a stop-loss at $468 (just below the 20-day low) to limit downside to ~4% from entry.