MSFT 2026-01-09
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-09
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-04
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-09
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.66 |
| CEO | 0.70 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 477.68
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 469.5
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 475.86
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 470.88
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 472.25
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 466.48
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $478.11
5-Day Range: $469.50 - $489.70
50-Day Range: $464.89 - $552.69
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-09
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | -2.92 | -3.18 | 0.26 |
| 2026-01-06 | -3.35 | -3.24 | -0.11 |
| 2026-01-05 | -3.35 | -3.21 | -0.13 |
| 2026-01-02 | -2.72 | -3.18 | 0.46 |
| 2025-12-31 | -1.89 | -3.30 | 1.41 |
| 2025-12-30 | -1.89 | -3.65 | 1.76 |
| 2025-12-29 | -2.25 | -4.09 | 1.83 |
| 2025-12-26 | -2.65 | -4.54 | 1.90 |
| 2025-12-24 | -3.17 | -5.02 | 1.84 |
| 2025-12-23 | -3.83 | -5.48 | 1.65 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 490.22 |
| 2026-01-06 | 490.49 |
| 2026-01-05 | 490.98 |
| 2026-01-02 | 491.72 |
| 2025-12-31 | 492.49 |
| 2025-12-30 | 492.85 |
| 2025-12-29 | 493.07 |
| 2025-12-26 | 493.32 |
| 2025-12-24 | 493.54 |
| 2025-12-23 | 493.77 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 481.21 |
| 2026-01-06 | 481.19 |
| 2026-01-05 | 481.22 |
| 2026-01-02 | 481.30 |
| 2025-12-31 | 481.39 |
| 2025-12-30 | 481.36 |
| 2025-12-29 | 481.30 |
| 2025-12-26 | 481.24 |
| 2025-12-24 | 481.18 |
| 2025-12-23 | 481.11 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 48.85 |
| 2026-01-06 | 43.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | 37.26 |
| 2026-01-02 | 37.32 |
| 2025-12-31 | 46.08 |
| 2025-12-30 | 50.01 |
| 2025-12-29 | 49.62 |
| 2025-12-26 | 50.21 |
| 2025-12-24 | 50.49 |
| 2025-12-23 | 49.50 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 39.76
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | 478.88 | 0.66 | 39.76 |
| 2026-01-07 | 483.71 | 0.97 | 49.29 |
| 2026-01-06 | 475.67 | 0.87 | 46.58 |
| 2026-01-05 | 472.81 | 1.44 | 59.01 |
| 2026-01-02 | 475.92 | 2.50 | 71.39 |
| 2025-12-31 | 485.02 | 4.95 | 83.18 |
| 2025-12-30 | 487.55 | 4.37 | 81.37 |
| 2025-12-29 | 486.54 | 2.54 | 71.77 |
| 2025-12-26 | 487.26 | 2.19 | 68.69 |
| 2025-12-24 | 487.34 | 2.88 | 74.20 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 478.11
Latest SMA: 481.47
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 471.09
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 491.85
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 7.28
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 22.7M
Today's volume: 18.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.8
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 481.51
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 464.89 on 2025-11-25 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 474.98
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
| 2025-08-15 | 56.2M | 20.8M | 2.71 |
| 2025-07-31 | 52.6M | 20M | 2.63 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 470 | 0.30 | -0.39 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0.52 | 11.70 | 11.40 |
| 460 | 0.30 | -0.30 | 0.01 | -0.23 | 0.47 | 8.20 | 7.95 |
| 450 | 0.31 | -0.22 | 0.01 | -0.20 | 0.40 | 5.60 | 5.35 |
| 440 | 0.32 | -0.16 | 0.01 | -0.17 | 0.32 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| 430 | 0.33 | -0.11 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 2.35 |
| 420 | 0.34 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.19 | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| 410 | 0.35 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.14 | 1.08 | 1.01 |
| 400 | 0.37 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.10 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-23:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 470 | 0.20 | -0.32 | 0.02 | -0.22 | 0.35 | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| 460 | 0.22 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.25 | 2.13 | 2.08 |
| 450 | 0.24 | -0.09 | 0.01 | -0.12 | 0.16 | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| 440 | 0.26 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| 430 | 0.28 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| 420 | 0.31 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 410 | 0.33 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| 400 | 0.36 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
Financial:
- Earnings Strength: MSFT has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with the most recent EPS of 3.72 exceeding consensus (3.66). Over the past 8 quarters, it has never missed estimates, and the historical average EPS (3.18) shows steady growth.
- Valuation: The current P/E of 36.53 is at the high end of its 1-year range (29.12–36.53), indicating premium pricing, but justified by strong earnings momentum and AI-driven growth prospects.
- Management Sentiment: Positive sentiment from the CEO (0.70) and CFO (0.66) in the latest earnings call reflects confidence in execution and future outlook.
- Insider Activity: No recent insider transactions suggest no immediate red flags from corporate insiders.
Technical:
- Price Action: Current price ($478.11) is near the lower end of the 5-day range ($469.50–$489.70) and below the 50-day EMA (~$490), indicating short-term weakness but potential support near recent lows.
- Key Levels:
- Support: Strong support at $469.50 (20-day low), $464.89 (50-day low), and Fibonacci 38.2% level at $474.98.
- Resistance: Immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA (~$490) and Bollinger upper band ($491.85).
- Momentum Indicators:
- RSI (48.85) is neutral, not oversold.
- MACD histogram turned positive recently (0.26 on Jan 7), suggesting potential momentum shift.
- Money Flow Index (39.76) is below 50, indicating mild selling pressure but not extreme.
- Volume: Today’s volume (18.2M) is below the 30-day average (22.7M), suggesting lack of conviction in the current decline.
News:
- Sentiment: 3 out of 10 recent articles are positive, highlighting MSFT’s AI leadership (Azure growth, 900M+ AI users, $400B backlog). Negative sentiment is limited (1 article citing competitive threats).
- Macro Context: The broader economy shows late-cycle signs (rising unemployment, low savings rate), but Fed policy is accommodative (rate cuts to 3.7%). SPY is near all-time highs but overvalued (Buffett Indicator 220%), suggesting market-wide caution but no imminent recession signals.
Option Chain:
- Put Skew: Higher implied volatility (IV) for lower strikes (e.g., 0.37 at $400) indicates demand for downside protection, but near-term puts (weekly expiry) show lower IV, suggesting limited near-term panic.
- Key Strike: The $470 put (monthly) has a delta of -0.39 and IV of 0.30, aligning with the $469.50 support level—a logical area for defensive positioning.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price:
- Ideal Buy Zone: $470–$475 (near the 20-day low $469.50 and Fibonacci 38.2% support at $474.98).
- Confirmation: Wait for a bullish reversal signal (e.g., RSI > 50, MACD histogram turning positive) or a bounce from $470.
-
Profit Targets:
- Short-term (2–4 weeks): $490–$495 (50-day EMA and Bollinger upper band resistance).
- Long-term (3–6 months): $520+ (prior highs near $553) if AI catalysts and earnings momentum continue.
-
Stop-Loss:
- Exit if price breaks below $464 (50-day low), risking ~2–3% from entry.
-
Time Horizon: Medium-term (3–6 months), aligned with upcoming earnings (Feb 4) and AI-driven growth narrative.
Final Notes:
- Upside Catalysts: Strong AI adoption, Azure growth, and a history of earnings beats.
- Risks: High valuation (P/E 36.5), broader market overvaluation, and potential macroeconomic slowdown.
- Position Sizing: Given elevated market-wide risks (Buffett Indicator >220%), size positions modestly and use dollar-cost averaging near support levels.
Overall: MSFT’s fundamentals remain robust, technicals suggest a near-term buying opportunity at support, and the risk/reward is favorable with tight stop-losses.