MSFT 2026-01-19
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-19
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.65
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.93
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-28
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-19
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.66 |
| CEO | 0.70 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for MSFT
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 472.92
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 455.9
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 470.16
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 457.17
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 464.90
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 454.89
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $459.86
5-Day Range: $455.90 - $480.99
50-Day Range: $455.90 - $513.87
200-Day Range: $342.95 - $553.50
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-19
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | -6.54 | -4.48 | -2.06 |
| 2026-01-15 | -5.95 | -3.97 | -1.98 |
| 2026-01-14 | -4.78 | -3.48 | -1.31 |
| 2026-01-13 | -3.50 | -3.15 | -0.35 |
| 2026-01-12 | -2.96 | -3.06 | 0.10 |
| 2026-01-09 | -2.89 | -3.09 | 0.20 |
| 2026-01-08 | -2.97 | -3.14 | 0.16 |
| 2026-01-07 | -2.92 | -3.18 | 0.26 |
| 2026-01-06 | -3.35 | -3.24 | -0.11 |
| 2026-01-05 | -3.35 | -3.22 | -0.13 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 484.81 |
| 2026-01-15 | 485.82 |
| 2026-01-14 | 487.01 |
| 2026-01-13 | 488.14 |
| 2026-01-12 | 488.85 |
| 2026-01-09 | 489.33 |
| 2026-01-08 | 489.74 |
| 2026-01-07 | 490.22 |
| 2026-01-06 | 490.49 |
| 2026-01-05 | 490.98 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 480.51 |
| 2026-01-15 | 480.71 |
| 2026-01-14 | 480.95 |
| 2026-01-13 | 481.17 |
| 2026-01-12 | 481.28 |
| 2026-01-09 | 481.32 |
| 2026-01-08 | 481.34 |
| 2026-01-07 | 481.37 |
| 2026-01-06 | 481.35 |
| 2026-01-05 | 481.38 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 33.76 |
| 2026-01-15 | 29.99 |
| 2026-01-14 | 31.40 |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.36 |
| 2026-01-12 | 43.53 |
| 2026-01-09 | 45.36 |
| 2026-01-08 | 44.14 |
| 2026-01-07 | 48.76 |
| 2026-01-06 | 43.70 |
| 2026-01-05 | 37.13 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 43.05
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 459.84 | 0.76 | 43.05 |
| 2026-01-15 | 458.94 | 0.44 | 30.51 |
| 2026-01-14 | 461.58 | 0.46 | 31.37 |
| 2026-01-13 | 470.80 | 0.66 | 39.78 |
| 2026-01-12 | 477.95 | 0.76 | 43.16 |
| 2026-01-09 | 477.10 | 0.51 | 33.88 |
| 2026-01-08 | 478.88 | 0.66 | 39.76 |
| 2026-01-07 | 483.71 | 0.97 | 49.29 |
| 2026-01-06 | 475.67 | 0.87 | 46.58 |
| 2026-01-05 | 472.81 | 1.44 | 59.01 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 459.86
Latest SMA: 478.23
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 458.27
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 498.18
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 44.05
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 23.1M
Today's volume: 34.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.48
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 477.86
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 455.9 on 2026-01-15 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 52.9M | 20.8M | 2.54 |
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
| 2025-08-15 | 56.2M | 20.8M | 2.71 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-20:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450 | 0.32 | -0.37 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0.52 | 12.15 | 12.00 |
| 440 | 0.32 | -0.29 | 0.01 | -0.22 | 0.47 | 8.60 | 8.45 |
| 430 | 0.33 | -0.22 | 0.01 | -0.19 | 0.41 | 5.90 | 5.70 |
| 420 | 0.33 | -0.15 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.33 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| 410 | 0.33 | -0.11 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.25 | 2.52 | 2.42 |
| 400 | 0.34 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.19 | 1.62 | 1.55 |
| 390 | 0.35 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.14 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| 380 | 0.36 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.10 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-30:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450 | 0.41 | -0.36 | 0.01 | -0.52 | 0.31 | 8.85 | 8.65 |
| 440 | 0.42 | -0.25 | 0.01 | -0.45 | 0.27 | 5.55 | 5.40 |
| 430 | 0.42 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.36 | 0.21 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| 420 | 0.42 | -0.10 | 0.01 | -0.26 | 0.15 | 1.87 | 1.79 |
| 410 | 0.44 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.18 | 0.10 | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| 400 | 0.45 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| 390 | 0.46 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| 380 | 0.49 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.16 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy (with a cautious, risk-managed entry)
Reasoning:
- Financial: Microsoft's financials are robust. The company consistently beats earnings estimates (0 misses in the last 8 quarters), with EPS showing a strong upward trend (average of 3.18, recent of 3.72). Management sentiment from the last earnings call is positive (CFO: 0.66, CEO: 0.70). The primary concern is valuation. The current P/E of 36.53 is at the very high end of its 1-year and 5-year ranges, indicating the stock is priced for perfection. The upcoming earnings report on January 28, 2026, is a significant near-term catalyst that could justify or challenge this premium.
- Technical: The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend and is oversold, presenting a potential buying opportunity for patient investors. The price ($459.86) is below all key EMAs (50-day at ~$485, 200-day at ~$481), indicating bearish momentum. However, the RSI is at 33.76, nearing oversold territory (30). The price is also trading at the lower Bollinger Band (~$458.27) and just above the 20-day low of $455.90. The ADX of 44.05 shows a strong trend, but the MACD histogram, while negative, has been improving (less negative) over the last few sessions, hinting at potential slowing downward momentum. Volume is elevated today (1.48x average), which can signal capitulation near a bottom.
- News & Macro: News sentiment is overwhelmingly neutral-to-positive, with articles highlighting Microsoft's strength in cloud (Azure), AI, and quantum computing. There are no significant negative company-specific headlines. The macroeconomic backdrop is late-cycle with high overall market valuations (Buffett Indicator 220%), which elevates systemic risk. However, supportive factors include a positively sloped yield curve (recession signal absent), a Fed that has shifted to cutting rates, and ample liquidity.
- Option Chain: The option market shows elevated implied volatility (IV) for near-term puts (weekly IV ~0.42-0.49 vs monthly ~0.32-0.36), reflecting heightened uncertainty and demand for protection ahead of earnings. The put open interest at the $450 and $440 strikes provides clear downside targets that the market is watching. The high theta (time decay) on weekly options underscores the cost of short-term hedges.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $455 - $460. This zone encompasses the recent low ($455.90), the price below the mean by two standard deviations ($454.89), and the lower Bollinger Band. A buy in this range provides a margin of safety near strong technical support. Wait for a bullish intraday reversal candle (e.g., hammer) or a break above the 5-day high (~$481) for trend confirmation if more conservative.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Post-Earnings Bounce): $480 - $490. This is the region of the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which will act as resistance.
- Medium-term (1-3 months): $505 - $515. This targets a move back to the upper end of the 50-day range and the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
- Stop-Loss: Place a hard stop at $449, just below the key $450 support and option strike. This limits downside risk to approximately 2-3% from a $460 entry.
- Time Horizon: Weeks to 3 months. This trade is predicated on a technical rebound from oversold conditions, potentially catalyzed by the Q2 earnings report on January 28th. The outcome of that report will dictate whether this becomes a longer-term hold or a quick exit.
Final Notes: This is a counter-trend buy recommendation based on a confluence of oversold technical indicators and strong fundamental health, set against a backdrop of high valuation. The key risk is that the high P/E multiple contracts further if earnings disappoint or guidance is weak. The upcoming earnings date (Jan 28) is a major binary event; consider reducing position size or using defined-risk options strategies (e.g., bull put spreads) to enter if concerned about volatility. The trade aligns with buying fear (oversold, high put IV) in a high-quality company, but strict adherence to the stop-loss is mandatory.