MSFT 2026-01-26
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-26
Most recent EPS (Actual): 3.72
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.66
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.65
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.18
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-29
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-28
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-26
Current P/E for MSFT: 36.53
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.66 |
| CEO | 0.70 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $470.28
5-Day Range: $438.68 - $474.25
50-Day Range: $438.68 - $512.54
200-Day Range: $351.22 - $553.50
Price Distribution for MSFT in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 459.74
Lowest price: 438.68
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 462.0
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 450.53
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 452.35
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 438.16
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-01-26
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | -8.21 | -6.82 | -1.40 |
| 2026-01-22 | -9.17 | -6.47 | -2.70 |
| 2026-01-21 | -8.74 | -5.80 | -2.95 |
| 2026-01-20 | -7.36 | -5.06 | -2.30 |
| 2026-01-16 | -6.54 | -4.48 | -2.06 |
| 2026-01-15 | -5.95 | -3.97 | -1.98 |
| 2026-01-14 | -4.78 | -3.48 | -1.31 |
| 2026-01-13 | -3.50 | -3.15 | -0.35 |
| 2026-01-12 | -2.96 | -3.06 | 0.10 |
| 2026-01-09 | -2.89 | -3.09 | 0.20 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 480.27 |
| 2026-01-22 | 480.86 |
| 2026-01-21 | 482.07 |
| 2026-01-20 | 483.62 |
| 2026-01-16 | 484.81 |
| 2026-01-15 | 485.82 |
| 2026-01-14 | 487.01 |
| 2026-01-13 | 488.14 |
| 2026-01-12 | 488.85 |
| 2026-01-09 | 489.33 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 479.54 |
| 2026-01-22 | 479.68 |
| 2026-01-21 | 479.96 |
| 2026-01-20 | 480.32 |
| 2026-01-16 | 480.58 |
| 2026-01-15 | 480.79 |
| 2026-01-14 | 481.03 |
| 2026-01-13 | 481.25 |
| 2026-01-12 | 481.36 |
| 2026-01-09 | 481.40 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 45.99 |
| 2026-01-22 | 33.45 |
| 2026-01-21 | 25.87 |
| 2026-01-20 | 30.68 |
| 2026-01-16 | 33.66 |
| 2026-01-15 | 29.87 |
| 2026-01-14 | 31.28 |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.23 |
| 2026-01-12 | 43.40 |
| 2026-01-09 | 45.23 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 51.41
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | 468.84 | 1.06 | 51.41 |
| 2026-01-23 | 462.53 | 0.75 | 42.83 |
| 2026-01-22 | 449.56 | 0.46 | 31.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | 445.16 | 0.47 | 32.06 |
| 2026-01-20 | 453.53 | 0.76 | 43.08 |
| 2026-01-16 | 459.84 | 0.76 | 43.05 |
| 2026-01-15 | 458.94 | 0.44 | 30.51 |
| 2026-01-14 | 461.58 | 0.46 | 31.37 |
| 2026-01-13 | 470.80 | 0.66 | 39.78 |
| 2026-01-12 | 477.95 | 0.76 | 43.16 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 470.28
Latest SMA: 471.04
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 444.98
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 497.1
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 12.51
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 24.4M
Today's volume: 29.3M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.2
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 470.13
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 438.68 on 2026-01-21 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 450.12
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 52.9M | 20.8M | 2.54 |
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
| 2025-08-15 | 56.2M | 20.8M | 2.71 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-27:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | 0.35 | -0.36 | 0.01 | -0.27 | 0.52 | 12.65 | 12.45 |
| 450 | 0.35 | -0.28 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0.47 | 9.05 | 8.85 |
| 440 | 0.35 | -0.21 | 0.01 | -0.21 | 0.41 | 6.25 | 6.10 |
| 430 | 0.35 | -0.16 | 0.00 | -0.18 | 0.33 | 4.25 | 4.10 |
| 420 | 0.35 | -0.11 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.26 | 2.81 | 2.73 |
| 410 | 0.36 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.20 | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| 400 | 0.37 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.15 | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| 390 | 0.38 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 0.82 | 0.75 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 460 | 0.46 | -0.34 | 0.01 | -0.62 | 0.30 | 9.05 | 8.90 |
| 450 | 0.46 | -0.24 | 0.01 | -0.52 | 0.26 | 5.70 | 5.55 |
| 440 | 0.45 | -0.16 | 0.01 | -0.41 | 0.20 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| 430 | 0.45 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.14 | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| 420 | 0.46 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| 410 | 0.46 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| 400 | 0.48 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| 390 | 0.50 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.13 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Microsoft demonstrates robust financial health with consistent earnings beats (last EPS: 3.72 vs. 3.66 consensus) and no misses over the past eight quarters. The forward outlook remains positive, with management sentiment (CFO: 0.66, CEO: 0.70) indicating confidence in AI-driven growth. However, the current P/E of 36.53 is at the upper end of its 5-year range, suggesting the stock is richly valued and may be pricing in near-term optimism. Upcoming earnings (Jan 28) will be critical for validating growth expectations, particularly around Azure and AI monetization.
-
Technical: The stock is in a short-term pullback, trading at $470.28, near the lower end of its 5-day range and below key EMAs (50-day: ~480, 200-day: ~479). Key support levels are evident at $450.12 (Fibonacci 50% and resonance support) and $438.68 (recent low). The RSI (45.99) is neutral, while the MACD histogram, though negative, is improving (from -2.95 to -1.40). Volume is slightly above average (ratio: 1.2), indicating heightened interest. The price is hovering just above the Bollinger Lower Band (~444.98), suggesting potential for a bounce if support holds.
-
News: Sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with 4 out of 10 recent articles bullish, focusing on Microsoft's AI leadership (Copilot, Azure) and strategic partnerships. No negative articles were found. The upcoming earnings report is a key catalyst, with market attention on cloud growth and AI capital expenditure efficiency.
-
Option Chain: Implied volatility for near-term puts (e.g., weekly expiry) is elevated (~46%), reflecting expected earnings volatility. Put strikes at $450 and $460 show significant open interest and liquidity, reinforcing these as psychological and technical support levels. The delta for the $460 put is -0.34, indicating traders are pricing in a moderate probability of closing below that strike post-earnings.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $450–$460. This range aligns with strong technical support (Fibonacci 50%, recent lows) and option chain strike concentrations. Entering in this zone provides a favorable risk/reward setup.
-
Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $500 (~8–10% gain from the lower end of the entry zone), aligning with the upper Bollinger Band and previous resistance.
- Long-term: Hold for growth if earnings confirm AI/cloud trajectory, with a multi-quarter target toward the 52-week high ($553.50).
-
Time Horizon: Short to medium-term (2–6 weeks), leveraging the post-earnings volatility and potential rebound from support. Earnings on Jan 28 will provide immediate directional clarity.
Final Notes: While fundamentals and sentiment are strong, the high valuation and near-term technical weakness warrant a disciplined, risk-managed approach. A break below $438.68 (recent low) would invalidate the bullish setup, suggesting a reassessment. Use tight stops if entering before earnings, or consider waiting for post-earnings price action to confirm direction.