MSFT 2026-02-02
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-02
Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.16
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.91
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.72
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.27
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2026-01-28
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-12-31
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-28
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-02
Current P/E for MSFT: 30.49
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q4 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.58 |
| CEO | 0.67 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $423.37
5-Day Range: $421.02 - $483.74
50-Day Range: $421.02 - $494.26
200-Day Range: $353.77 - $553.50
Price Distribution for MSFT in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 453.67
Lowest price: 421.02
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 449.28
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 426.45
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 438.60
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 420.07
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-02
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | -8.38 | -6.47 | -1.91 |
| 2026-01-29 | -6.18 | -5.99 | -0.19 |
| 2026-01-28 | -3.62 | -5.95 | 2.33 |
| 2026-01-27 | -5.20 | -6.53 | 1.33 |
| 2026-01-26 | -7.03 | -6.86 | -0.17 |
| 2026-01-23 | -8.21 | -6.82 | -1.40 |
| 2026-01-22 | -9.17 | -6.47 | -2.70 |
| 2026-01-21 | -8.74 | -5.80 | -2.95 |
| 2026-01-20 | -7.36 | -5.06 | -2.30 |
| 2026-01-16 | -6.54 | -4.49 | -2.06 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 476.27 |
| 2026-01-29 | 478.15 |
| 2026-01-28 | 479.97 |
| 2026-01-27 | 479.91 |
| 2026-01-26 | 479.88 |
| 2026-01-23 | 480.27 |
| 2026-01-22 | 480.85 |
| 2026-01-21 | 482.07 |
| 2026-01-20 | 483.62 |
| 2026-01-16 | 484.80 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 478.51 |
| 2026-01-29 | 479.00 |
| 2026-01-28 | 479.45 |
| 2026-01-27 | 479.43 |
| 2026-01-26 | 479.42 |
| 2026-01-23 | 479.51 |
| 2026-01-22 | 479.65 |
| 2026-01-21 | 479.93 |
| 2026-01-20 | 480.29 |
| 2026-01-16 | 480.55 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 32.65 |
| 2026-01-29 | 33.59 |
| 2026-01-28 | 56.12 |
| 2026-01-27 | 55.52 |
| 2026-01-26 | 49.13 |
| 2026-01-23 | 46.12 |
| 2026-01-22 | 33.61 |
| 2026-01-21 | 26.04 |
| 2026-01-20 | 30.88 |
| 2026-01-16 | 33.88 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 36.82
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 425.45 | 0.58 | 36.82 |
| 2026-01-30 | 432.11 | 0.82 | 45.10 |
| 2026-01-29 | 432.34 | 0.95 | 48.67 |
| 2026-01-28 | 481.12 | 1.72 | 63.24 |
| 2026-01-27 | 478.87 | 1.10 | 52.38 |
| 2026-01-26 | 468.84 | 1.06 | 51.41 |
| 2026-01-23 | 462.53 | 0.75 | 42.83 |
| 2026-01-22 | 449.56 | 0.46 | 31.52 |
| 2026-01-21 | 445.16 | 0.47 | 32.06 |
| 2026-01-20 | 453.53 | 0.76 | 43.08 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 423.37
Latest SMA: 462.57
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 425.95
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 499.18
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 48.28
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 30.4M
Today's volume: 42.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.39
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 462.47
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 421.02 on 2026-01-29 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 425.26
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 54.7M | 23.7M | 2.31 |
| 2025-12-31 | 52.9M | 20.8M | 2.54 |
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-03-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.26 | -0.30 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.44 | 6.55 | 6.45 |
| 400 | 0.26 | -0.21 | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.36 | 4.05 | 3.90 |
| 390 | 0.27 | -0.13 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.27 | 2.40 | 2.31 |
| 380 | 0.28 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.19 | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| 370 | 0.29 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.13 | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| 360 | 0.31 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.09 | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| 350 | 0.32 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| 340 | 0.34 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-13:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.27 | -0.22 | 0.02 | -0.26 | 0.22 | 2.66 | 2.61 |
| 400 | 0.29 | -0.11 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.14 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| 390 | 0.31 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.08 | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| 380 | 0.33 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| 370 | 0.35 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| 360 | 0.38 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| 350 | 0.40 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| 340 | 0.57 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Key metrics: Recent EPS of 5.16 beat consensus of 3.91, with no misses in the past 8 quarters. P/E of 30.49 is within the historical range (24.92-37.43), indicating fair valuation. Growth outlook is positive due to AI investments and diversified revenue streams, but risks include high capital expenditures ($37.5B quarterly) and potential margin compression.
-
Technical: Trends are bearish with price below 50-day EMA ($476.27) and 200-day EMA ($478.51), and MACD in negative territory. However, oversold conditions are present: RSI at 32.65 (near oversold), price below Bollinger lower band ($425.95), and near key support levels ($421.02 recent low and Fibonacci 61.8% at $425.26). Volume is elevated (1.39 ratio), suggesting possible capitulation or selling pressure.
-
News: Catalysts: Earnings beat was overshadowed by concerns over Azure growth slowing to 37-38% and high AI capex, leading to a stock decline. Headwinds include investor skepticism about ROI on AI spending and AI bubble warnings. However, long-term sentiment remains positive from some analysts, highlighting Microsoft's diversified business as a strength.
-
Option Chain: Option chain for puts shows moderate implied volatility (0.26-0.34 for monthly, higher for weekly), with delta around -0.3 for at-the-money strikes, indicating hedging activity. This suggests options traders are pricing in some downside risk but not extreme moves.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $420-$425 (near support at $421.02 or Fibonacci 61.8% at $425.26, with confirmation of bounce).
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $460 (8.7% gain from current $423.37, targeting resistance near moving averages).
- Long-term: $500 (18% gain, if growth catalysts materialize).
- Time Horizon: Weeks to months for a bounce trade; consider holding long-term for growth, with next earnings on April 28, 2026, as a catalyst.
Final Notes: Set a stop-loss at $415 (about 2% below entry) to limit downside risk. Monitor for any breakdown below $420, which could indicate further decline. Fundamentals remain strong, but short-term sentiment and trend are negative, requiring careful risk management.