MSFT 2026-02-09
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-09
Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.16
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.91
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.72
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.27
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2026-01-28
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-12-31
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-28
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-09
Current P/E for MSFT: 30.49
1 year P/E range: 29.12 - 36.53
2 years P/E range: 29.12 - 37.43
5 years P/E range: 24.92 - 37.43
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q4 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.58 |
| CEO | 0.67 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
No transactions have been reported in recent Form 4 filings.
Technical Report
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $413.6
5-Day Range: $392.32 - $422.05
50-Day Range: $392.32 - $493.50
200-Day Range: $373.19 - $553.50
Price Distribution for MSFT in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 421.07
Lowest price: 392.32
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 426.45
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 409.24
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 411.14
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 383.22
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-02-09
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -18.80 | -12.76 | -6.04 |
| 2026-02-05 | -17.45 | -11.26 | -6.20 |
| 2026-02-04 | -14.72 | -9.71 | -5.01 |
| 2026-02-03 | -13.11 | -8.45 | -4.65 |
| 2026-02-02 | -10.55 | -7.29 | -3.26 |
| 2026-01-30 | -8.38 | -6.47 | -1.91 |
| 2026-01-29 | -6.18 | -6.00 | -0.19 |
| 2026-01-28 | -3.62 | -5.95 | 2.33 |
| 2026-01-27 | -5.20 | -6.53 | 1.33 |
| 2026-01-26 | -7.03 | -6.86 | -0.17 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 463.94 |
| 2026-02-05 | 466.50 |
| 2026-02-04 | 469.47 |
| 2026-02-03 | 471.73 |
| 2026-02-02 | 474.20 |
| 2026-01-30 | 476.27 |
| 2026-01-29 | 478.15 |
| 2026-01-28 | 479.97 |
| 2026-01-27 | 479.90 |
| 2026-01-26 | 479.88 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 475.16 |
| 2026-02-05 | 475.91 |
| 2026-02-04 | 476.74 |
| 2026-02-03 | 477.36 |
| 2026-02-02 | 478.03 |
| 2026-01-30 | 478.58 |
| 2026-01-29 | 479.06 |
| 2026-01-28 | 479.52 |
| 2026-01-27 | 479.50 |
| 2026-01-26 | 479.49 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 29.14 |
| 2026-02-05 | 24.56 |
| 2026-02-04 | 29.41 |
| 2026-02-03 | 27.48 |
| 2026-02-02 | 30.65 |
| 2026-01-30 | 32.64 |
| 2026-01-29 | 33.58 |
| 2026-01-28 | 56.04 |
| 2026-01-27 | 55.44 |
| 2026-01-26 | 49.07 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 37.47
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 409.79 | 0.60 | 37.47 |
| 2026-02-06 | 398.62 | 0.57 | 36.17 |
| 2026-02-05 | 398.10 | 0.54 | 35.14 |
| 2026-02-04 | 414.41 | 0.75 | 42.80 |
| 2026-02-03 | 413.94 | 0.53 | 34.50 |
| 2026-02-02 | 425.45 | 0.58 | 36.82 |
| 2026-01-30 | 432.11 | 0.82 | 45.10 |
| 2026-01-29 | 432.34 | 0.95 | 48.67 |
| 2026-01-28 | 481.12 | 1.72 | 63.24 |
| 2026-01-27 | 478.87 | 1.10 | 52.38 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 413.6
Latest SMA: 444.65
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 389.35
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 499.94
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 35.04
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 34.9M
Today's volume: 45.5M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.3
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 445.0
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 392.32 on 2026-02-05 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 389.87
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 54.7M | 23.7M | 2.31 |
| 2025-12-31 | 52.9M | 20.8M | 2.54 |
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 65.2M | 19.3M | 3.39 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.5M | 22.3M | 2.63 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-03-13:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.30 | -0.41 | 0.01 | -0.20 | 0.48 | 11.35 | 11.15 |
| 400 | 0.30 | -0.30 | 0.01 | -0.19 | 0.43 | 7.60 | 7.40 |
| 390 | 0.31 | -0.22 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.36 | 4.95 | 4.80 |
| 380 | 0.32 | -0.15 | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.29 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| 370 | 0.33 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.22 | 2.06 | 1.99 |
| 360 | 0.34 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.16 | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| 350 | 0.36 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| 340 | 0.37 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.08 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-20:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.32 | -0.38 | 0.02 | -0.38 | 0.28 | 6.30 | 6.20 |
| 400 | 0.32 | -0.23 | 0.01 | -0.31 | 0.22 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| 390 | 0.33 | -0.13 | 0.01 | -0.22 | 0.15 | 1.57 | 1.53 |
| 380 | 0.36 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.15 | 0.10 | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| 370 | 0.39 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| 360 | 0.42 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| 350 | 0.45 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| 340 | 0.47 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
- Financial: Strong earnings beat (EPS 5.16 vs consensus 3.91), no misses in past 8 quarters, P/E of 30.49 is at the lower end of the 1-year range (29.12-36.53), indicating relatively attractive valuation. Management sentiment is positive (CEO 0.67, CFO 0.58). Risks include high capex forecasts which may pressure free cash flow.
- Technical: Oversold conditions: RSI near 30, MFI at 37.47, price near Bollinger lower band (389.35). Death cross (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA) indicates bearish trend, but key support at $390 (Fibonacci 78.6% at 389.87, recent low 392.32). Elevated volume suggests potential selling climax.
- News: Mixed sentiment: positive developments include Morgan Stanley bullish note and AI growth prospects; negative concerns about capex spending and slowing Azure growth. Overall, long-term AI narrative remains intact.
- Option Chain: Implied volatilities are moderate (30-47% for puts), indicating neither extreme fear nor complacency. Put deltas show moderate hedging activity.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $390-$410 (near support levels, recent lows). Consider averaging in around $400.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $450 (12.5% gain from $400 entry)
- Long-term: $500+ (if AI growth materializes and trend reverses)
- Time Horizon: Medium-term (3-6 months) to capture rebound; long-term holders can hold through upcoming earnings on April 28, 2026.
Final Notes: Watch support at $390 closely; if broken, next support at $380. Set stop-loss at $385 (below recent low). Upcoming earnings on April 28 could be a catalyst. Monitor Azure growth and capex updates.