MSFT 2026-03-01
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-01
Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.16
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.91
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.72
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.27
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2026-01-28
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-12-31
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-28
Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-01
Current P/E for MSFT: 30.42
1 year P/E range: 29.05 - 36.45
2 years P/E range: 29.05 - 37.34
5 years P/E range: 24.87 - 37.34
Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q4 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.58 |
| CEO | 0.67 |
Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | 5K | $397.35 | Purchase | 83.9K |
Technical Report
Price Range for MSFT
MSFT current price: $392.74
5-Day Range: $381.71 - $407.49
50-Day Range: $381.71 - $488.58
200-Day Range: $381.71 - $552.24
Price Distribution for MSFT in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 396.91
Lowest price: 381.71
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 393.63
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 383.1
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 387.56
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 376.29
Technical Indicators Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-01
MACD values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | -15.07 | -16.78 | 1.71 |
| 2026-02-26 | -15.53 | -17.20 | 1.67 |
| 2026-02-25 | -16.81 | -17.62 | 0.81 |
| 2026-02-24 | -18.09 | -17.82 | -0.26 |
| 2026-02-23 | -18.27 | -17.76 | -0.51 |
| 2026-02-20 | -17.77 | -17.63 | -0.14 |
| 2026-02-19 | -18.18 | -17.59 | -0.59 |
| 2026-02-18 | -18.57 | -17.44 | -1.12 |
| 2026-02-17 | -18.90 | -17.16 | -1.74 |
| 2026-02-13 | -18.77 | -16.73 | -2.04 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 436.01 |
| 2026-02-26 | 437.78 |
| 2026-02-25 | 439.25 |
| 2026-02-24 | 440.83 |
| 2026-02-23 | 442.95 |
| 2026-02-20 | 445.33 |
| 2026-02-19 | 447.30 |
| 2026-02-18 | 449.29 |
| 2026-02-17 | 451.32 |
| 2026-02-13 | 453.54 |
EMA values for MSFT with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 465.28 |
| 2026-02-26 | 466.01 |
| 2026-02-25 | 466.65 |
| 2026-02-24 | 467.32 |
| 2026-02-23 | 468.10 |
| 2026-02-20 | 468.95 |
| 2026-02-19 | 469.67 |
| 2026-02-18 | 470.38 |
| 2026-02-17 | 471.09 |
| 2026-02-13 | 471.84 |
RSI values for MSFT in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 36.43 |
| 2026-02-26 | 40.34 |
| 2026-02-25 | 39.59 |
| 2026-02-24 | 31.28 |
| 2026-02-23 | 27.68 |
| 2026-02-20 | 32.08 |
| 2026-02-19 | 32.54 |
| 2026-02-18 | 32.95 |
| 2026-02-17 | 31.01 |
| 2026-02-13 | 32.43 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for MSFT over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 36.51
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 393.15 | 0.57 | 36.51 |
| 2026-02-26 | 402.65 | 0.60 | 37.52 |
| 2026-02-25 | 397.41 | 0.37 | 26.80 |
| 2026-02-24 | 386.69 | 0.38 | 27.47 |
| 2026-02-23 | 387.64 | 0.64 | 39.01 |
| 2026-02-20 | 397.50 | 1.08 | 51.82 |
| 2026-02-19 | 399.85 | 0.92 | 47.79 |
| 2026-02-18 | 399.49 | 1.00 | 50.01 |
| 2026-02-17 | 397.30 | 0.69 | 40.85 |
| 2026-02-13 | 401.64 | 0.66 | 39.75 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for MSFT, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 392.74
Latest SMA: 403.45
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 380.89
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 426.01
ADX for MSFT, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 15.38
Volume and volume ratio for MSFT:
Last 30 days average volume: 42.3M
Volume ratio and Price spread in the past 14 days:
| Date | Volume | Volume Ratio | Price Spread (High - Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 51.5M | 1.22 | 6.94 |
| 2026-02-28 | 34.5M | 0.82 | 8.75 |
| 2026-02-27 | 43.8M | 1.03 | 11.31 |
| 2026-02-26 | 34M | 0.80 | 7.65 |
| 2026-02-25 | 43.4M | 1.03 | 12.26 |
| 2026-02-24 | 34M | 0.80 | 4.96 |
| 2026-02-23 | 28.2M | 0.67 | 7.76 |
| 2026-02-22 | 23.2M | 0.55 | 6.24 |
| 2026-02-21 | 32.1M | 0.76 | 6.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | 34.1M | 0.81 | 7.49 |
| 2026-02-19 | 40.8M | 0.96 | 8.19 |
| 2026-02-18 | 42.5M | 1.00 | 15.45 |
| 2026-02-17 | 44.9M | 1.06 | 10.98 |
| 2026-02-16 | 45.5M | 1.08 | 14.02 |
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 404.54
Support levels for MSFT (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 381.71 on 2026-02-24 (UTC)
Last High: 555.45 on 2025-07-31 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 505.73, 38.2%: 474.98, 50.0%: 450.12, 61.8%: 425.26, 78.6%: 389.87
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 389.87
Short interest data for MSFT in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 56.1M | 46.9M | 1.20 |
| 2026-01-30 | 58.4M | 43.5M | 1.34 |
| 2026-01-15 | 54.7M | 23.7M | 2.31 |
| 2025-12-31 | 52.9M | 20.8M | 2.54 |
| 2025-12-15 | 66.7M | 23.8M | 2.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 61.9M | 26M | 2.38 |
| 2025-11-14 | 48.6M | 24M | 2.02 |
| 2025-10-31 | 52.5M | 22.6M | 2.32 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.3M | 17.6M | 2.98 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.9M | 20.8M | 2.65 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: MSFT delivered a strong earnings beat (EPS $5.16 vs $3.91 consensus) and hasn't missed estimates in the last 8 quarters. Revenue growth remains robust with AI-driven cloud acceleration. The P/E of 30.42 is at the lower end of its 1-year range (29.05-36.45) and below its 5-year high, offering reasonable valuation given growth. Management sentiment is positive (CEO 0.67, CFO 0.58). An insider purchased shares at $397.35 in February, signaling confidence.
-
Technical: The stock is deeply oversold, trading near 200-day lows ($381.71-$552.24). Current price ($392.74) is below both 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a downtrend, but RSI (36.43) and MFI (36.51) suggest oversold conditions. MACD histogram turned positive recently, hinting at potential momentum shift. Key support exists at the Fibonacci 78.6% level ($389.87) and recent low ($381.71). Volume patterns show occasional spikes, indicating accumulation at lower levels.
-
News: Sentiment is predominantly positive (5 positive vs 1 negative articles). Positive catalysts include major AI infrastructure investments ($655B industry-wide), Sovereign Cloud expansion with Starlink, strong Azure growth (39% YoY), and successful AI monetization. The negative article references Peter Thiel's sale of Palantir (not MSFT) and broader AI sector caution, which appears overblown for Microsoft given its diversified revenue streams.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $385-$395 (near Fibonacci 78.6% support at $389.87 and recent lows). Consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate volatility.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $435-$445 (10-12% gain, near 50-day EMA and upper Bollinger Band)
- Long-term: $475-$500 (20-27% gain, approaching 38.2% Fibonacci level and prior highs)
- Stop-Loss: $375 (3-5% below entry, below recent low and Bollinger lower band)
- Time Horizon: 3-6 months (catalysts: AI adoption acceleration, April 28 earnings report).
Final Notes: MSFT's dominant cloud position, AI leadership, and financial strength make it a core holding for long-term growth. The current pullback (-30% from peak) provides an attractive entry point. However, monitor broader market sentiment toward tech/AI stocks and any signs of slowing cloud growth. The low days-to-cover (1.20) indicates minimal short squeeze potential.