msft.

MSFT 2026-03-22

Created on March 23, 2026

Financial Report

Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-22

Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.16

Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.91

Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.72

Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.27

In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.

Most recent EPS reported date: 2026-01-28

Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-12-31

Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-28

Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-22

Current P/E for MSFT: 30.42

1 year P/E range: 29.05 - 36.45

2 years P/E range: 29.05 - 37.34

5 years P/E range: 24.87 - 37.34

Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q4 earnings call:

The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:

The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.

Title	Sentiment Score
CFO	0.58
CEO	0.67

Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:

Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.

Date	Total Amount Traded	Avg. Traded Price	Transaction Type	Remaining Shares
2026-03-06	-12.3K	$409.52	Sell	137.9K

Technical Report

1. Trend Analysis & Moving Average Confluence

Primary Trend: Strongly bearish. The 50-day EMA (419.49) is well below the 200-day EMA (456.30), confirming a "death cross" alignment. The price (381.85) is trading below both key EMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.
Short-Term Trend: Also bearish. The current price is below the 20-day SMA (398.77), which itself is below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. This creates a bearish stacked order: Price < 20 SMA < 50 EMA < 200 EMA.
Conclusion: The overall trend is strongly bearish across all timeframes. The widening gap between the price and the 50-day EMA (a ~10% discount) underscores the intensity of the downtrend.

2. Momentum & Overbought/Oversold Assessment

RSI: At 32.12, the RSI is in oversold territory (< 30), suggesting selling exhaustion on a short-term basis. However, it has not yet reached extreme oversold levels (< 20).
MFI: At 18.24, the MFI is deeply oversold (< 20), indicating intense negative money flow and capitulation.
MACD: The MACD line (-7.54) is below the signal line (-7.26) with a negative histogram (-0.28). The histogram has turned negative after a brief positive streak, signaling a resumption of bearish momentum.
Momentum Bias: Bearish momentum is dominant, but the oversold RSI and MFI readings indicate a high probability of a short-term relief bounce or consolidation.

3. Support/Resistance & Price Bounds

Bollinger Bands: The current price (381.87) is trading at the lower Bollinger Band (382.14), a classic oversold signal that often precedes a bounce. The distance to the middle band (SMA20 at 398.77) is 4.2%, and to the upper band (415.39) is 8.1%.
Key Support:
- Immediate Support: $380.12 (recent 5-day and 50-day low).
- Secondary Support: The lower Bollinger Band at 382.14.
- Fibonacci Resonance: The 78.6% retracement level at $389.87 now acts as the nearest overhead resistance.
Key Resistance:
- Immediate Resistance: $389.87 (Fibonacci 78.6%).
- Secondary Resistance: $398.77 (SMA20 / middle Bollinger Band).
- Major Resistance: The 50-day EMA at $419.49.
Price Zones:
- Reversal/Bounce Zone: $380 - $382 (confluence of recent low and lower Bollinger Band).
- Breakout/Continuation Zone: A sustained break below $380 could trigger further declines toward the two standard deviation price of $378.60.

4. Volume & Market Participation Confirmation

Volume Analysis: The latest volume of 51M shares represents a 44% increase over the 30-day average (Volume Ratio: 1.44). This high-volume decline confirms strong selling pressure and validates the bearish move.
Volume-Price Interaction: The volume spike occurred as price tested the $380.12 low, which can signal either capitulation (ending the move) or initiation of a new leg down. The deeply oversold MFI (18.24) accompanying this volume spike suggests capitulation is more likely.
Money Flow: The MFI's plunge from 30.78 to 18.24 indicates severe outflows. This oversold reading, combined with price at support, often precedes a short-term reversal.

5. Synthesis & Trading Implications

Narrative: MSFT is in a powerful long-term downtrend but has reached a critical oversold support cluster at the $380 level, coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band. This is occurring with oversold momentum readings (RSI < 33, MFI < 20) and a high-volume sell-off, suggesting a probable short-term bounce or consolidation is imminent. However, the dominant bearish trend and moving average structure imply any bounce is likely a counter-trend move.

Stock Trading Implications

Directional Bias: Bearish for the medium-term, but neutral-to-bullish for a very short-term (1-5 day) bounce.
Entry Zone (for a tactical long): $380.50 - $382.50. This zone leverages the confluence of the recent low and lower Bollinger Band.
Stop Loss Level: $378.50 (just below the two standard deviation price level and the recent low).
Profit Targets:
1. $389.50 (Fibonacci 78.6% resistance)
2. $398.50 (SMA20 / middle Bollinger Band resistance)
Alternative Strategy (for trend followers): Wait for a bounce to resistance ($389-$399) to establish short positions, targeting a retest of $380, with a stop above $405.## News Report ----News and sentiment report for MSFT as of 2026-03-22---- There are 160 articles found for MSFT for the last 30 days.

Peer news results as a comparison: NOW: 173658 articles found. NVDA: 435 articles found. PATH: 19934 articles found. ZS: 301 articles found. AMZN: 734 articles found. AMD: 6130 articles found. AAPL: 252 articles found. PANW: 26 articles found. GOOGL: 93 articles found. FTNT: 18 articles found.

Detailed Sentiment Analysis based on 10 MSFT news articles:

Title: The Nasdaq Is on the Verge of a Correction. 4 Things Investors Need To Remember Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-23T01:30:00Z Sentiment: negative Reasoning: Microsoft stock is down 1.9% amid the broader market selloff affecting technology stocks. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/the-nasdaq-is-on-the-verge-of-a-correction-3-thing/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Here's Why Amazon's Biggest Bet in 2026 Could Backfire on Shareholders Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-22T19:25:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned only as a competitor gaining cloud computing market share from AWS. No specific analysis or sentiment regarding Microsoft's own operations or investments is provided in the article. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/heres-why-amazons-biggest-bet-in-2026-could-backfi/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Prediction: The "Trough of Disillusionment" Will Create the Best Buying Opportunity for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks in 2026 Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-22T17:27:00Z Sentiment: negative Reasoning: Despite being a powerhouse, not demonstrating superiority in any aspect of the AI business. Down over 20% from peak. Dominance is key for high-performing stocks, which Microsoft currently lacks in AI. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/prediction-trough-of-disillusionment-will-create/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: $100 Oil and the Conflict in Iran Have Not Been Enough to Derail the Market. Can Anything Stop the S&P 500 Index? Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-22T14:15:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned only in market data display with no specific analysis or commentary provided in the article. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/100-oil-and-the-conflict-in-iran-have-not-been-eno/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Meet the Red-Hot Artificial Intelligence (AI) Infrastructure Stock That Has Crushed Oracle With 115% Gains in a Year. It Is Still Worth Buying Hand Over Fist. Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-22T10:25:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned as a major customer of Oracle's AI infrastructure services, indicating strong demand but no direct performance analysis provided in the article. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/meet-the-red-hot-artificial-intelligence-ai-infras/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: 3 Genius Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks You'll Regret Not Buying Now Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-22T10:05:00Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Stock trading at historically cheap P/E ratio over the past decade despite strong business transformation to subscription and cloud computing models. Author views current sell-off as unwarranted and considers it a great deal. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/22/3-genius-artificial-intelligence-ai-stocks-youll-r/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: 3 Green Energy Stocks to Buy in March Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-21T20:15:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned as a customer with long-term clean energy contracts; no direct investment recommendation or analysis provided URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/21/3-green-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-march/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Palantir Is Executing Perfectly. History Says It Won't Be Enough. Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-21T19:30:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned as a competitive threat to Palantir's enterprise AI business due to its massive investment in AI capabilities, but no direct sentiment is expressed about Microsoft itself. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/21/palantir-executing-perfectly-history-valuation/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Got $1,000? This Under-the-Radar AI Stock Could Be a Future 10-Bagger Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-21T16:22:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned as a hyperscaler customer representing concentration risk if they shift connectivity strategy in-house. No investment sentiment expressed. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/21/under-the-radar-ai-stock-10-bagger-credo-crdo/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: RR 13-DAY DEADLINE ALERT: Richtech Robotics (RR) Facing Securities Class Action Amid Questions About Possible Pump and Dump – Hagens Berman Publisher: GlobeNewswire Inc. Published: 2026-03-21T16:18:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned only as the party that denied the commercial partnership with Richtech. The company clarified the engagement was a standard customer program with no commercial element. No negative sentiment toward Microsoft itself is implied. URL: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/21/3260019/32716/en/RR-13-DAY-DEADLINE-ALERT-Richtech-Robotics-RR-Facing-Securities-Class-Action-Amid-Questions-About-Possible-Pump-and-Dump-Hagens-Berman.html

Out of the total 10 articles, There are 1 articles with positive sentiment, and 2 articles with negative sentiment. Remaining articles are neutral.

Volatility Report

Based on the provided risk metrics, here is an analysis of the current options and volatility landscape.

1. Are Put Options Underpriced or Overpriced?

The data presents a nuanced picture, but the evidence leans toward put options being fairly priced to slightly overpriced, particularly for near-term expiries.

High Implied Volatility (IV): The IV percentiles for 45-day puts at both -0.10 and -0.25 delta are at 100%. This is an extreme level, indicating that the current implied volatility for these options is higher than it has been at any point in the last 100 days. For 90-day puts, the IV percentile is still elevated at 85.71%. This suggests the market is pricing in significant uncertainty and risk.
Positive but Moderate Volatility Risk Premium (VRP): The VRP (ATM IV minus 20-day RV) is positive (~0.09-0.11). Historically, a positive VRP is normal as investors pay a premium for protection. The current level is not exceptionally high, suggesting the market isn't paying an extreme "fear" premium.
Low Realized Volatility (RV) Ratio: The RV ratio (5-day RV / 20-day RV) is 0.75, indicating that recent market movements have been calmer than the average of the past month. When recent realized volatility is falling but implied volatility remains very high, it can signal that options are rich (overpriced).
Contradictory Signal from SKEW: The CBOE SKEW index is at a very low 5th percentile. A low SKEW suggests the market is not pricing in elevated tail risk (extreme downside events) relative to a normal distribution. This directly contradicts the message from the high put IV percentiles and suggests the high IV may be driven by overall market volatility expectations rather than specific fear of a crash. This makes expensive puts (high IV) less compelling as a tail hedge.

Conclusion: While IV is at extreme percentiles, the low SKEW and declining recent RV suggest the high premium may not be fully justified by immediate realized risk. Puts, especially those expiring in 45 days, appear rich or overpriced from a statistical standpoint. However, the high VIX and VVIX confirm a high-volatility environment where premiums are inherently elevated.

2. Near-Term vs. Long-Term Protection

Near-term protection (45 DTE) is relatively more expensive than longer-term protection (90 DTE).

IV Percentile Differential: The IV percentile for 45 DTE puts is 100%, versus 85.71% for 90 DTE puts. This is a significant gap, showing near-term volatility expectations are at a maximum historical level, while longer-term expectations, though high, are not as extreme.
Term Structure Skew: The IV skew between 45 and 90 DTE is positive but small (0.01 to 0.02). A positive value means near-term IV is higher than longer-term IV (an "inverted" or "backwardated" volatility term structure), which is typical during periods of stress and near-term uncertainty. The small magnitude suggests the inversion is present but not severe.
Option Cost: The absolute price of the 90 DTE put is higher (e.g., ~$11.37 for delta -0.25 vs. ~$7.69 for 45 DTE), which is expected due to more time value. However, the IV percentile analysis indicates you are paying a larger historical premium for the near-term option.

Conclusion: The volatility term structure is inverted, signaling greater perceived risk in the immediate future. An investor looking for protection may find better relative value in longer-dated puts (90 DTE), as they offer duration at a slightly less extreme historical volatility premium.

3. Current Market Regime Categorization

The current regime is best described as Rising Fear, potentially transitioning toward Panic.

Complacency is Ruled Out: Extremely high VIX (98.5%) and VVIX (97%) percentiles completely rule out a complacent market.
Evidence for Rising Fear / Panic:
- VIX & VVIX: The VIX is above 26, in its top 2% historically, and the VVIX (volatility of VIX) is extremely high at 126. This indicates the volatility market itself is highly volatile and stressed—a hallmark of panic or its immediate buildup.
- IV Levels: Maxed-out IV percentiles for short-dated puts reflect intense demand for immediate protection.
- Volatility Term Structure: The inverted curve (higher near-term IV) is a classic sign of a fear-driven market.
Key Contradiction - The Role of SKEW: The exceptionally low SKEW (5th percentile) prevents a clear "Panic" classification. In true panic, SKEW typically spikes as investors pay exorbitant prices for far-out-of-the-money puts to hedge tail risk. The current low SKEW suggests that, despite high overall volatility, there isn't a specific frenzy for extreme downside protection.
Synthesis: This pattern—high VIX, high VVIX, inverted term structure, but low SKEW—is often seen in the early or volatile phase of a "Rising Fear" environment. It suggests a market experiencing large, volatile swings and pricing in high uncertainty, but not yet bracing for a specific catastrophic event. It could also indicate that a volatility spike has occurred (evident in VIX) but the market is attempting to stabilize (evident in low RV ratio and low SKEW).

Summary

Put Pricing: Puts are statistically expensive (high IV percentile), but the low SKEW indicates the premium is for general volatility, not crash protection. They are fairly valued to overpriced given the decline in recent realized volatility.
Protection Horizon: The volatility term structure is inverted. Near-term protection (45 DTE) is at a greater historical extreme than longer-term protection (90 DTE), which may offer marginally better relative value.
Market Regime: The environment is best characterized as "Rising Fear" with strong panic-adjacent signals (extreme VIX/VVIX), tempered by a lack of demand for tail-risk hedges (low SKEW). The market is volatile and fearful, but not yet in a state of outright, skewed panic.## Final Report Fundamentally, MSFT is strong: recent EPS of $5.16 smashed consensus ($3.91), management sentiment is positive, and P/E of 30.42 sits at the lower end of its historical range, suggesting undervaluation relative to earnings growth. However, technically, the stock is in a powerful downtrend with a death cross (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA) and price trading below all key moving averages. Despite the bearish structure, momentum indicators are deeply oversold (RSI 32.12, MFI 18.24), price has tagged the lower Bollinger Band at $382.14, and a high-volume sell-off suggests capitulation—creating a high-probability setup for a short-term bounce toward $389–$399 resistance. News sentiment is mixed but leans negative amid broader market concerns, though one article highlights the stock's historically cheap valuation. Risk metrics reveal extreme implied volatility (45-day put IV percentile at 100%) with low SKEW (5th percentile), indicating puts are overpriced for general volatility, not tail risk. The upcoming earnings on April 28, 2026, adds event risk. Synthesis: Strong fundamentals and oversold technicals support a bounce, but the bearish trend limits upside. High IV favors selling premium. Thus, the optimal strategy is a bull put spread, which profits from a stabilization/bounce, capitalizes on overpriced volatility, and defines risk. Sell the $380 put and buy the $370 put expiring in 45–60 days. Enter near current prices ($381–$382), with invalidation below $378. Target a bounce to $389–$399. Key risks: breakdown below support or renewed market panic.