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MSFT 2026-03-25

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Financial Report

Earnings Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-25

Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.16

Most recent EPS (Consensus): 3.91

Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 2.93 - 3.72

Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.27

In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.

Most recent EPS reported date: 2026-01-28

Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-12-31

Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-28

Valuation Data Summary for MSFT as of 2026-03-25

Current P/E ratio: 23.31

P/E ratio at last earning on 2025-12-31: 30.42

1 year P/E range: 23.31 - 36.45

2 years P/E range: 23.31 - 37.34

5 years P/E range: 23.31 - 37.34

Management Sentiment Summary for MSFT in 2025Q4 earnings call:

The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:

The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.

TitleSentiment Score
CFO0.58
CEO0.67

Insider transactions for MSFT in the last 90 days:

Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.

DateTotal Amount TradedAvg. Traded PriceTransaction TypeRemaining Shares
2026-03-06-12.3K$409.52Sell137.9K

Technical Report

Technical Analysis for MSFT (2026-03-25)

1. Trend Analysis & Moving Average Confluence

  • Primary Trend (Long-Term): BEARISH.

    • The 200-day EMA (454.71) is above the 50-day EMA (416.28), which is bearish (death cross alignment).
    • Both EMAs are in a clear, steady downtrend over the last two weeks.
    • The current price ($371.04) is significantly below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming a strong bearish primary trend.

  • Short-Term Trend: STRONGLY BEARISH.

    • The 20-day SMA (396.4), serving as the middle Bollinger Band, is also in decline.
    • The current price is below the 20-day SMA, and all key moving averages (20, 50, 200) are stacked in bearish order (200 > 50 > 20 > Price).

  • Trend Conclusion: MSFT is in a powerful, sustained bearish trend across all timeframes. The moving averages are aligned bearishly and acting as dynamic resistance. The ADX of 83.43 confirms an exceptionally strong trend is in place.

2. Momentum & Overbought/Oversold Assessment

  • RSI & MFI: Both indicate OVERSOLD conditions.

    • RSI is at 28.38, solidly below the 30 oversold threshold.
    • MFI is at 27.06, below the 30 level and approaching the deeper oversold zone (< 20). This suggests selling pressure is being fueled by significant capital outflow.

  • MACD Analysis: Shows BEARISH MOMENTUM, BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF EXHAUSTION.

    • The MACD line (-9.13) remains below the signal line (-7.75), confirming bearish momentum.
    • However, the histogram has improved from -1.38 to a less negative value over recent sessions, indicating the bearish momentum is decelerating. This divergence, while the price made a new low, is a tentative early sign of potential momentum weakening.

  • Momentum Bias: Momentum remains bearish but is reaching deeply oversold extremes that often precede a relief rally or consolidation.

3. Support/Resistance & Price Bounds

  • Bollinger Band Analysis:

    • Price Location: The current close ($371.04) is BELOW the Lower Bollinger Band ($373.04). This is a rare and significant signal of extreme oversold conditions, often indicative of a selling climax.
    • Distance from Bands: Price is approximately -0.5% below the lower band. Trading outside the lower band suggests the move is overextended and a reversion toward the mean (SMA20 at 396.4) is statistically probable.

  • Key Technical Levels:

    • Immediate Support: The intraday low of $369.63 (from today, 2026-03-25) is the absolute floor.
    • Near-Term Resistance: The Lower Bollinger Band at $373.04 now becomes the first minor resistance. The Fibonacci 61.8% level at $425.26 and the declining 50-day EMA (~$416) form a stronger resistance zone much higher.
    • Primary Resistance: The cluster of moving averages (20, 50, 200) between $396 and $455.

  • Price Zones:

    • Potential Reversal/Bounce Zone: $369 - $373 (Recent Low + Below Lower Band).
    • Potential Breakout (Bullish) Zone: A sustained move above $396 (20-SMA) would be the first sign of short-term trend change.

4. Volume & Market Participation Confirmation

  • Volume Analysis: Participation is mixed but shows signs of capitulation.

    • Today's volume (31.4M) is slightly below the 30-day average (34.2M), with a Volume Ratio of 0.92.
    • However, the largest volume spike in the last 10 days (51M, VR 1.49) occurred on 2026-03-22 during a decline, and another spike (42.9M, VR 1.25) happened yesterday (2026-03-24) on another down day. This suggests elevated selling pressure on down moves, a characteristic of a downtrend, potentially culminating in a high-volume selling climax.

  • Money Flow (MFI): Strongly Bearish.

    • MFI has collapsed from 55.92 on 2026-03-13 to 27.06 today, showing massive capital outflow during the price decline.
    • There is no bullish divergence; both price and MFI have fallen sharply together.

  • Capital Flow Conclusion: The trend is being confirmed by negative money flow. The high-volume down days near the lows could indicate panic selling, which often marks a short-term bottom.

5. Synthesis & Trading Implications

Narrative: MSFT is in a powerful, high-momentum bear market (confirmed by ADX > 80, bearish EMA stack, and negative MFI). The price has plunged to historically oversold levels, trading below its lower Bollinger Band with an RSI under 30. While the trend is unequivocally down, the combination of a price breach of the lower band, deeply oversold oscillators, and a decelerating MACD histogram creates a high-probability setup for a technical bounce or consolidation in the very near term. The increasing short interest (79.8M shares) adds fuel for a potential short-covering rally if buyers step in.

Stock Trading Implications

  • Directional Bias (Short-Term: 1-5 days): Neutral-to-Cautiously Bullish for a counter-trend bounce. Directional Bias (Medium-Term): Bearish until key resistance levels are reclaimed.

  • Entry Zone (for a tactical bounce trade): $369.50 - $372.00 (at or near the current price/lows).

  • Stop Loss Level: $367.00 (a break below the recent intraday low by ~$2.50 would invalidate the bounce thesis and suggest further downside).

  • Profit Targets:

    1. Target 1: $383 - $385 (Previous minor low from 2026-03-23 & price with low z-score).
    2. Target 2: $390 - $393 (Fibonacci 78.6% level at $389.87 & recent resistance from 2026-03-18).
    3. Target 3: $396 - $398 (20-day SMA / Middle Bollinger Band & VWAP).

Note: This analysis suggests a counter-trend long opportunity based on extreme oversold conditions. The primary trend remains bearish. Any long trade should be considered tactical and managed tightly. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a confirmed bullish reversal signal (e.g., a strong close back inside the Bollinger Bands) before entering.

News Report

There are 152 articles found for MSFT for the last 30 days.

Peer news results as a comparison: NOW: 177869 articles found. NVDA: 418 articles found. PATH: 20499 articles found. ZS: 293 articles found. AMZN: 722 articles found. AMD: 6138 articles found. AAPL: 255 articles found. PANW: 18 articles found. GOOGL: 87 articles found. FTNT: 12 articles found.

Detailed Sentiment Analysis based on 10 MSFT news articles:

Title: IWO vs. MGK: Is Small-Cap Growth or Mega-Cap Tech the Better Choice for Investors? Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-26T00:19:01Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Key top holding in MGK, supporting the fund's focus on mega-cap technology leaders. URL: https://www.fool.com/coverage/etfs/2026/03/25/iwo-vs-mgk-is-small-cap-growth-or-mega-cap-tech-the-better-choice-for-investors/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: My Top 2 Megacap Stocks to Buy After Walmart's Latest Pullback Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-26T00:05:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned as competitor to Amazon with better navigation of capacity constraints; no direct investment recommendation URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/25/my-top-2-mega-cap-stocks-to-buy-after-walmarts-lat/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: MGK Offers Focused Growth While VOOG Provides Broader Diversification: Which Is the Right ETF for You? Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T22:23:53Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Microsoft is identified as a top three holding in both ETFs with substantial portfolio weight. Like Apple, its performance influences both funds' outcomes, but the article provides no company-specific sentiment analysis. URL: https://www.fool.com/coverage/etfs/2026/03/25/mgk-offers-focused-growth-while-voog-provides-broader-diversification-which-is-the-right-etf-for-you/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Here's What Could Send Nvidia Stock to New All-Time Highs Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T21:30:00Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Major AI hyperscaler contributing to the $650B projected spending on data centers and infrastructure, demonstrating significant investment in AI capabilities. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/25/heres-what-could-send-nvidia-stock-to-new-all-time/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Is Palantir Stock a Long-Term Buy? Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T19:30:00Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Mentioned only as a comparison example of companies that control operating systems; no specific analysis or sentiment provided. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/25/is-palantir-stock-a-long-term-buy/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Go Big or Go Small? IWM Targets Small-Cap Stocks; MGK Owns Big Tech Stocks Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T19:13:11Z Sentiment: neutral Reasoning: Microsoft is mentioned as a top MGK holding but receives no specific sentiment commentary, serving only as an example of mega-cap tech exposure. URL: https://www.fool.com/coverage/etfs/2026/03/25/go-big-or-go-small-iwm-targets-small-cap-stocks-mgk-owns-big-tech-stocks/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: UiPath Cuts Manual Effort with Agentic Execution Layer Publisher: Benzinga Published: 2026-03-25T18:53:08Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Microsoft's collaboration with UiPath on security automation capabilities demonstrates expansion of its enterprise automation and security offerings, positioning it well in the growing market for AI-driven security solutions. URL: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/mid-cap/26/03/51466678/uipath-cuts-manual-effort-with-agentic-execution-layer?utm_source=benzinga_taxonomy&utm_medium=rss_feed_free&utm_content=taxonomy_rss&utm_campaign=channel

Title: Microsoft, Nvidia Just Fused AI And Atoms — 8 Nuclear Stocks In Focus Publisher: Benzinga Published: 2026-03-25T18:48:55Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Leading the AI-nuclear collaboration with cloud and infrastructure capabilities; positioned to benefit from expanded nuclear sector digitalization URL: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/03/51466579/microsoft-nvidia-fused-ai-atoms-8-nuclear-stocks-in-focus?utm_source=benzinga_taxonomy&utm_medium=rss_feed_free&utm_content=taxonomy_rss&utm_campaign=channel

Title: Is Microsoft a Buy, Sell, or Hold After Its Massive Drop in 2026? Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T15:30:00Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Despite a sharp stock pullback, analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating. The article frames the weakness as a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, suggesting that if the company's cloud and AI products continue to deliver growth, the current price decline may represent a significant mispricing rather than a fundamental deterioration in the business. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/25/is-microsoft-a-buy-sell-or-hold-after-its-massive/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Title: Is Microsoft Stock a Buy Right Now? Here's What the Data Says. Publisher: The Motley Fool Published: 2026-03-25T15:30:00Z Sentiment: positive Reasoning: Despite a 30% decline from highs, the article presents a bullish case based on strong fundamentals (39% cloud revenue growth, 17% overall revenue growth), solid execution, and undervaluation relative to historical multiples. The analyst recommends buying at current levels, viewing the decline as an opportunity rather than a fundamental problem with the business. URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/25/is-microsoft-stock-a-buy-right-now-heres-what-the/?source=iedfolrf0000001

Out of the total 10 articles, There are 6 articles with positive sentiment, and 0 articles with negative sentiment. Remaining articles are neutral.

Volatility Metrics

Current Put Option IV percentile in the last 100 days:

IV percentile at delta = -0.10 and DTE = 45 is 100.0

IV percentile at delta = -0.25 and DTE = 45 is 100.0

IV percentile at delta = -0.10 and DTE = 90 is 77.78

IV percentile at delta = -0.25 and DTE = 90 is 66.67

Omega, IV, and Put Option Price in the last 10 days:

Delta: -0.10 and DTE = 45:

DateOmegaIVOption Price
2026-03-240.080.412.71
2026-03-230.090.392.65
2026-03-200.080.402.74
2026-03-190.090.372.59
2026-03-180.090.382.65
2026-03-170.100.342.45
2026-03-160.090.362.57
2026-03-130.090.382.72
2026-03-120.090.382.74

Delta: -0.25 and DTE = 45:

DateOmegaIVOption Price
2026-03-240.050.377.71
2026-03-230.060.347.39
2026-03-200.050.357.69
2026-03-190.060.337.22
2026-03-180.060.337.34
2026-03-170.070.306.75
2026-03-160.060.317.07
2026-03-130.060.347.50
2026-03-120.060.347.59

Delta: -0.10 and DTE = 90:

DateOmegaIVOption Price
2026-03-240.080.403.88
2026-03-230.090.383.83
2026-03-200.080.404.03
2026-03-190.090.393.89
2026-03-180.090.394.00
2026-03-170.090.363.75
2026-03-160.090.383.91
2026-03-130.080.414.16
2026-03-120.080.404.18

Delta: -0.25 and DTE = 90:

DateOmegaIVOption Price
2026-03-240.050.3610.94
2026-03-230.060.3410.74
2026-03-200.050.3611.37
2026-03-190.060.3510.95
2026-03-180.060.3511.10
2026-03-170.060.3310.54
2026-03-160.060.3410.95
2026-03-130.050.3611.69
2026-03-120.050.3611.78

Put Option IV skew (IV at delta -0.10 minus IV at delta -0.25:

DTE = 45:

DateValue
2026-03-240.04
2026-03-230.04
2026-03-200.04
2026-03-190.04
2026-03-180.05
2026-03-170.04
2026-03-160.05
2026-03-130.05
2026-03-120.05

DTE = 90:

DateValue
2026-03-240.04
2026-03-230.04
2026-03-200.04
2026-03-190.04
2026-03-180.04
2026-03-170.04
2026-03-160.04
2026-03-130.04
2026-03-120.04

Put Option IV skew between DTE 45 and DTE 90 (Near-term minus Long-term):

Delta = -0.10:

DateValue
2026-03-240.01
2026-03-230.00
2026-03-200.01
2026-03-190.01
2026-03-180.01
2026-03-170.02
2026-03-160.02
2026-03-130.02
2026-03-120.02

Delta = -0.25:

DateValue
2026-03-240.01
2026-03-230.00
2026-03-200.01
2026-03-190.02
2026-03-180.02
2026-03-170.02
2026-03-160.02
2026-03-130.03
2026-03-120.02

Volatility Risk Premium between Put Option ATM IV and RV (Yang-Zhang) in the past 20 days:

DateValue
2026-03-240.12
2026-03-230.10
2026-03-200.11
2026-03-190.09
2026-03-180.09
2026-03-170.06
2026-03-160.07
2026-03-130.09
2026-03-120.10

Volatility Risk Premium between Put Option ATM IV and RV (Close-Close) in the past 20 days:

DateValue
2026-03-240.12
2026-03-230.12
2026-03-200.10
2026-03-190.09
2026-03-180.09
2026-03-170.08
2026-03-160.08
2026-03-130.11
2026-03-120.12

RV ratio between RV in the last 5 days and RV in the last 20 days:

DateValue
2026-03-250.78
2026-03-240.70
2026-03-230.74
2026-03-200.75
2026-03-190.84
2026-03-180.80
2026-03-170.82
2026-03-160.81
2026-03-130.82
2026-03-120.72
2026-03-110.69
2026-03-100.77
2026-03-090.80
2026-03-060.86
2026-03-050.97
2026-03-041.11
2026-03-031.08
2026-03-021.05
2026-02-271.04
2026-02-260.51

Current VIX: 25.33

VIX percentile in the past 200 days: 96.0%

Z-score (5 days): -0.44

Z-score (20 days): 0.50

DateClose Price
2026-03-2525.33
2026-03-2426.95
2026-03-2326.15
2026-03-2026.78
2026-03-1924.06
2026-03-1825.09
2026-03-1722.37
2026-03-1623.51
2026-03-1327.19
2026-03-1227.29
2026-03-1124.23
2026-03-1024.93
2026-03-0925.50
2026-03-0624.62
2026-03-0523.75
2026-03-0421.15
2026-03-0323.57
2026-03-0221.44
2026-02-2719.86
2026-02-2618.63

VIX 9 Day Volatility: 28.21

VIX 3-Month Volatility: 26.56

VIX 6-Month Volatility: 27.22

Current VVIX: 119.37

VVIX percentile in the past 200 days: 93.0%

Z-score (5 days): -0.82

Z-score (20 days): 0.03

DateClose Price
2026-03-25119.37
2026-03-24124.14
2026-03-23122.82
2026-03-20126.28
2026-03-19118.09
2026-03-18126.50
2026-03-17110.55
2026-03-16116.78
2026-03-13131.05
2026-03-12130.18
2026-03-11122.49
2026-03-10125.36
2026-03-09122.60
2026-03-06119.26
2026-03-05115.93
2026-03-04106.94
2026-03-03116.02
2026-03-02113.44
2026-02-27110.89
2026-02-26104.15

Current SKEW: 140.88

SKEW percentile in the past 200 days: 10.5%

Z-score (5 days): 0.16

Z-score (20 days): -0.80

DateClose Price
2026-03-25140.88
2026-03-24142.63
2026-03-23142.02
2026-03-20139.12
2026-03-19138.26
2026-03-18136.54
2026-03-17145.04
2026-03-16141.49
2026-03-13137.76
2026-03-12139.94
2026-03-11152.44
2026-03-10154.46
2026-03-09157.98
2026-03-06151.80
2026-03-05153.95
2026-03-04152.87
2026-03-03152.83
2026-03-02151.78
2026-02-27146.67
2026-02-26146.57

Volatility Report

Based on the provided risk metrics, here is an analysis of put option pricing, near-term versus long-term protection, and the current market regime:

1. Are put options underpriced or overpriced?

Put options are overpriced. This conclusion is supported by:

  • High implied volatility (IV) percentiles: Near-term put options (45 days to expiration, DTE) show IV percentiles at 100% for both delta -0.10 and -0.25, meaning current IV is at its highest level in the past 100 days. Longer-term puts (90 DTE) also show elevated percentiles (77.78% and 66.67%), though less extreme.
  • Positive volatility risk premium (VRP): Both Yang-Zhang and close-close methods show IV exceeding realized volatility (RV) over the past 20 days, indicating options are priced for higher future volatility than recently observed. This suggests put options are expensive relative to recent realized volatility.
  • Elevated VIX and VVIX: VIX is at the 96th percentile and VVIX at the 93rd percentile over the past 200 days, reflecting high volatility expectations.
  • Low SKEW percentile (10.5%): While overall IV is high, the low SKEW indicates that tail risk (deep out-of-the-money puts) is not as expensive relative to at-the-money options. However, this does not offset the overall expensive pricing of puts.

2. Compare near-term protection vs. long-term protection.

Near-term protection (45 DTE) is relatively more expensive than long-term protection (90 DTE). Key observations:

  • IV percentiles: Near-term puts have IV percentiles of 100%, while long-term puts range from 66.67% to 77.78%, indicating near-term options are more expensive relative to their own history.
  • Term structure inversion: The IV skew between maturities (near-term minus long-term) is positive for both delta -0.10 and -0.25, meaning near-term IV is higher than long-term IV. This inverted term structure is typical during periods of near-term stress or uncertainty.
  • Absolute IV levels: For delta -0.10, near-term IV is 0.41 versus 0.40 for long-term; for delta -0.25, near-term IV is 0.37 versus 0.36. While differences are small, the consistent inversion reinforces that near-term protection commands a premium.
  • Option prices: Near-term put prices (e.g., 2.71 for delta -0.10, 45 DTE) are lower in absolute terms than long-term puts (3.88 for delta -0.10, 90 DTE), but this is due to time value. The higher IV and inversion indicate near-term protection is costlier per unit of time.

3. Which category best describes the current regime?

Post-Panic. The combination of indicators suggests the market is in a phase where extreme fear is abating but volatility remains elevated:

  • VIX and VVIX: Both are at high percentiles (96% and 93%) but show negative 5-day z-scores (-0.44 and -0.82), indicating they are declining from recent peaks.
  • SKEW: Low percentile (10.5%) and negative 20-day z-score (-0.80) suggest reduced demand for tail risk protection, which is atypical during panic but common in post-panic as extreme fears subside.
  • IV percentiles: While extremely high (especially for near-term puts), they may reflect residual anxiety rather than ongoing panic.
  • Term structure: Inversion (near-term IV > long-term IV) persists, often seen during and after panic, but can normalize as conditions stabilize.
  • RV ratio: The 5-day RV is 78% of the 20-day RV, indicating recent volatility has moderated relative to the past month, consistent with a calming market.

This regime is characterized by elevated but declining volatility, low tail risk pricing, and inverted term structure, aligning with a post-panic environment where the immediate crisis has passed but uncertainty remains.

Final Report

Fundamental analysis indicates MSFT is undervalued: P/E of 23.31 is at the low end of its multi-year range, recent EPS of 5.16 significantly beat consensus (3.91), and management sentiment is positive. Technically, the stock is in a powerful bearish trend (price below all moving averages, ADX > 80) but is deeply oversold: RSI (28.38) and MFI (27.06) signal extreme oversold conditions, and price trades below the lower Bollinger Band ($373.04), often a precursor to a bounce. News sentiment is positive (6 out of 10 articles bullish), highlighting AI collaborations and framing the drop as a buying opportunity. Risk metrics show put options are overpriced (IV percentiles at 100%, positive volatility risk premium), favoring volatility-selling strategies. Synthesis: Fundamental and news bullish, technicals oversold (bullish for bounce), volatility overpriced. This creates a high-conviction setup for a tactical bounce and long-term value. Recommended strategy: Sell cash-secured puts (e.g., 45 DTE, strike $365-$370) to capitalize on high IV and potential entry at a discount, or enter long stock now with a stop-loss at $367 (below recent low) targeting $383-385 initially. Key risks: Downtrend resumption if bounce fails, or earnings disappointment on 4/28/2026.