NVDA 2025-12-18
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for NVDA as of 2025-12-18
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.30
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.24
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-19
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-10-31
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.72
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.05
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.402
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-24
Valuation Data Summary for NVDA as of 2025-12-18
Current P/E for NVDA: 50.09
1 year P/E range: 34.17 - 50.35
2 years P/E range: 34.17 - 53.2
5 years P/E range: 34.17 - 90.62
Management Sentiment Summary for NVDA in 2025Q4 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.53 |
| CEO | 0.78 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
On 2025-12-17, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 250K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $177.3338 and $177.3338.
The insiders have 6.9M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-12, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 229.8K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $175.1401 and $185.1605.
The insiders have 25.6M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-12, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 50.5K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $175.2646 and $182.064.
The insiders have 17.3M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-10, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 80K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $184.2515 and $185.5467.
The insiders have 5M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-09, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 350K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $181.7259 and $181.7259.
The insiders have 7M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-04, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at NVDA.
Total of 12.7K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $183.9344 and $183.9344.
The insiders have 0 shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for NVDA
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 177.79
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 169.54
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 176.47
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 172.92
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 173.40
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 169.34
Price Range for NVDA
NVDA current price: $170.94
5-Day Range: $170.31 - $182.82
50-Day Range: $169.54 - $212.18
200-Day Range: $86.60 - $212.18
Technical Indicators Summary for NVDA as of 2025-12-18
MACD values for NVDA in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | -0.35 | -2.31 | -1.96 |
| 2025-12-15 | -0.35 | -2.23 | -1.87 |
| 2025-12-12 | -0.16 | -1.95 | -1.79 |
| 2025-12-11 | 0.32 | -1.43 | -1.75 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0.48 | -1.35 | -1.83 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.43 | -1.52 | -1.95 |
| 2025-12-08 | 0.22 | -1.83 | -2.05 |
| 2025-12-05 | -0.16 | -2.26 | -2.11 |
| 2025-12-04 | -0.40 | -2.47 | -2.07 |
| 2025-12-03 | -0.82 | -2.79 | -1.97 |
EMA values for NVDA with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 183.27 |
| 2025-12-15 | 183.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | 183.79 |
| 2025-12-11 | 184.15 |
| 2025-12-10 | 184.28 |
| 2025-12-09 | 184.30 |
| 2025-12-08 | 184.28 |
| 2025-12-05 | 184.23 |
| 2025-12-04 | 184.30 |
| 2025-12-03 | 184.34 |
EMA values for NVDA with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 164.14 |
| 2025-12-15 | 164.01 |
| 2025-12-12 | 163.88 |
| 2025-12-11 | 163.77 |
| 2025-12-10 | 163.60 |
| 2025-12-09 | 163.40 |
| 2025-12-08 | 163.18 |
| 2025-12-05 | 162.96 |
| 2025-12-04 | 162.76 |
| 2025-12-03 | 162.55 |
RSI values for NVDA in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 43.52 |
| 2025-12-15 | 41.54 |
| 2025-12-12 | 39.80 |
| 2025-12-11 | 45.68 |
| 2025-12-10 | 48.92 |
| 2025-12-09 | 50.30 |
| 2025-12-08 | 50.95 |
| 2025-12-05 | 47.54 |
| 2025-12-04 | 48.50 |
| 2025-12-03 | 44.39 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for NVDA over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 38.52
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | 38.52 | 0.63 | 172.46 |
| 2025-12-16 | 39.62 | 0.66 | 177.04 |
| 2025-12-15 | 40.97 | 0.69 | 176.58 |
| 2025-12-12 | 50.97 | 1.04 | 177.49 |
| 2025-12-11 | 53.45 | 1.15 | 179.62 |
| 2025-12-10 | 64.33 | 1.80 | 183.76 |
| 2025-12-09 | 59.19 | 1.45 | 184.67 |
| 2025-12-08 | 69.16 | 2.24 | 185.32 |
| 2025-12-05 | 54.52 | 1.20 | 182.66 |
| 2025-12-04 | 43.14 | 0.76 | 182.62 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for NVDA, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 170.94
Latest SMA: 180.28
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 172.62
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 187.94
ADX for NVDA, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 22.18
Volume and volume ratio for NVDA:
Last 30 days average volume: 202.4M
Today's volume: 222.9M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.1
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 180.66
Support levels for NVDA (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 135.4 on 2025-06-02 (UTC)
Last High: 212.19 on 2025-10-29 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 182.56, 38.2%: 164.22, 50.0%: 149.4, 61.8%: 134.59, 78.6%: 113.49
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 134.59
Short interest data for NVDA in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 241.7M | 1.00 | 232.9M |
| 2025-11-14 | 193.7M | 1.22 | 237.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 176.4M | 1.35 | 238.6M |
| 2025-10-15 | 171.7M | 1.23 | 211M |
| 2025-09-30 | 194.7M | 1.16 | 226.8M |
| 2025-09-15 | 172.3M | 1.26 | 217.5M |
| 2025-08-29 | 192.6M | 1.02 | 196.7M |
| 2025-08-15 | 151.2M | 1.36 | 205.2M |
| 2025-07-31 | 156.2M | 1.23 | 192.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 170.8M | 1.18 | 201.7M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
NVDA 165 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4014, delta: -0.3383, gamma: 0.0185, theta: -0.1138, vega: 0.1797 ask price: 4.75, bid price: 4.7
NVDA 160 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4146, delta: -0.2526, gamma: 0.0157, theta: -0.1037, vega: 0.157 ask price: 3.3, bid price: 3.25
NVDA 155 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.429, delta: -0.1824, gamma: 0.0125, theta: -0.0895, vega: 0.1301 ask price: 2.24, bid price: 2.2
NVDA 150 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4434, delta: -0.1274, gamma: 0.0096, theta: -0.0734, vega: 0.1025 ask price: 1.48, bid price: 1.45
NVDA 145 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4617, delta: -0.0877, gamma: 0.007, theta: -0.0586, vega: 0.0783 ask price: 0.98, bid price: 0.96
NVDA 140 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4816, delta: -0.0596, gamma: 0.005, theta: -0.0456, vega: 0.0582 ask price: 0.65, bid price: 0.63
NVDA 135 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.505, delta: -0.0406, gamma: 0.0035, theta: -0.0353, vega: 0.0428 ask price: 0.44, bid price: 0.42
NVDA 130 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.5298, delta: -0.0276, gamma: 0.0024, theta: -0.027, vega: 0.0312 ask price: 0.3, bid price: 0.28
Weekly options:
NVDA 165 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3949, delta: -0.3, gamma: 0.0245, theta: -0.1484, vega: 0.1248 ask price: 2.83, bid price: 2.81
NVDA 160 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.4124, delta: -0.1943, gamma: 0.0186, theta: -0.1237, vega: 0.0988 ask price: 1.67, bid price: 1.65
NVDA 155 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.4325, delta: -0.1196, gamma: 0.0129, theta: -0.0946, vega: 0.0717 ask price: 0.96, bid price: 0.94
NVDA 150 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.4559, delta: -0.0715, gamma: 0.0083, theta: -0.0685, vega: 0.049 ask price: 0.55, bid price: 0.53
NVDA 145 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.4811, delta: -0.0419, gamma: 0.0052, theta: -0.0475, vega: 0.0321 ask price: 0.31, bid price: 0.3
NVDA 140 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.514, delta: -0.0255, gamma: 0.0032, theta: -0.0338, vega: 0.0213 ask price: 0.19, bid price: 0.18
NVDA 135 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.549, delta: -0.0157, gamma: 0.002, theta: -0.024, vega: 0.0142 ask price: 0.12, bid price: 0.11
NVDA 130 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.5878, delta: -0.0101, gamma: 0.0013, theta: -0.0175, vega: 0.0096 ask price: 0.08, bid price: 0.07
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a bias towards Sell for short-term traders)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: NVDA's financials are a tale of two halves. Strengths: The company is executing exceptionally well. The most recent EPS of $1.30 beat consensus ($1.24) and is significantly above the historical average ($0.72). It has not missed earnings in the past 8 quarters, showing consistent performance. Management sentiment, especially from the CEO (0.78), is strongly positive. Risks: The stock is expensive, trading at a P/E of 50.09, near the top of its 1-year range (34.17 - 50.35). This high valuation leaves little room for error. A major red flag is the significant and consistent insider selling over the last 90 days, with over 970K shares sold across multiple filings. While insiders retain large positions, this concentrated selling wave suggests they may view the current price as a favorable level to take profits.
-
Technical: The technical picture is bearish and weakening. The stock price ($170.94) is below all key moving averages: it has broken below the 50-day EMA (~$183) and is now testing the 200-day EMA (~$164). The MACD histogram is negative and declining, and the RSI (43.52) is neutral but trending down from recent highs. The Money Flow Index (MFI at 38.52) indicates selling pressure. Critically, the price has broken below the 20-day Bollinger Lower Band ($172.62), which often signals an oversold condition but can also precede further downside. Volume is elevated (10% above average), confirming the selling pressure. Support from the 200-day range is at $169.54, which is being tested.
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is mixed but leaning positive on the long-term AI growth story (6 positive vs. 2 negative articles). However, the macro backdrop from the report suggests a late-cycle economy with high valuations (Buffett Indicator at 226.3%) and a restrictive Fed. For a high-multiple growth stock like NVDA, this is a challenging environment. The broader market (SPY) is also showing signs of momentum loss near all-time highs.
-
Option Chain: The option chain supports a cautious to bearish near-term outlook. Implied Volatility (IV) for puts increases as strikes go lower (e.g., 130 put IV at ~53% for Jan monthly), indicating the market is pricing in higher risk of a move downward. The high put open interest at strikes like $165 and $160 shows where traders are positioning for potential support or expecting further decline.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Avoid new long entries at current levels. For investors determined to establish a position, wait for a more compelling risk/reward setup. An ideal buy zone would be on a successful test and hold of strong support between $164.22 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $169.34 (price -2 std dev). A break and close above the 50-day EMA (~$183) could signal a reversal, but that is not the current trend.
- Profit Targets / Exit Points:
- For existing long positions, consider using any bounce toward $177.79 (25th percentile) or $180.28 (20-day SMA) as an opportunity to reduce exposure or take profits.
- A stop-loss should be placed below the critical 200-day range low of $169.54. A break below this level could trigger a move toward the next major support at $164.22 or even $149.40 (50% Fibonacci).
- Time Horizon: Short-term (Weeks) bearish/neutral. Long-term (Months) dependent on AI growth trajectory. The next major catalyst is the earnings report on 2026-02-24.
Final Notes: The confluence of high valuation, persistent insider selling, and a breakdown in technical structure outweighs the strong fundamental earnings story in the near term. The stock is in a clear downtrend and testing major support. While NVDA's long-term prospects in AI remain compelling, the current risk/reward is unfavorable for new buyers. The prudent action is to step aside, hold cash, and wait for either a deeper correction to key support levels or a confirmed technical reversal before considering a long position. For current holders, it is a time for risk management, not conviction buying.