AVGO 2026-01-09
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for AVGO as of 2026-01-09
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.95
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.87
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-12-11
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-10-31
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.35
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.69
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.096
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-03-04
Valuation Data Summary for AVGO as of 2026-01-09
Current P/E for AVGO: 55.1
1 year P/E range: 32.54 - 55.1
2 years P/E range: 27.53 - 55.1
5 years P/E range: 11.91 - 55.1
Management Sentiment Summary for AVGO in 2025Q4 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| President and CEO | 0.42 |
| Head of Investor Relations | 0.45 |
Insider transactions for AVGO in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | -100K | $347.24 | Sell | 878.1K |
| 2025-12-31 | -30K | $347.82 | Sell | 584.5K |
| 2025-12-26 | -25.9K | $352.07 | Sell | 240.6K |
| 2025-12-23 | -100K | $345.65 | Sell | 6.6M |
| 2025-12-18 | -129K | $326.03 | Sell | 632.2K |
| 2025-12-17 | -43.9K | $327.66 | Sell | 11.9M |
| 2025-12-16 | -3.6K | $340.94 | Sell | 2.7M |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for AVGO
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 340.41
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 320.81
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 335.88
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 323.01
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 324.92
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 305.33
Price Range for AVGO
AVGO current price: $332.48
5-Day Range: $330.50 - $360.66
50-Day Range: $320.81 - $413.82
200-Day Range: $137.28 - $413.82
Technical Indicators Summary for AVGO as of 2026-01-09
MACD values for AVGO in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | -5.98 | -5.35 | -0.63 |
| 2026-01-06 | -6.01 | -5.19 | -0.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | -5.98 | -4.99 | -0.99 |
| 2026-01-02 | -5.82 | -4.74 | -1.07 |
| 2025-12-31 | -5.95 | -4.47 | -1.48 |
| 2025-12-30 | -5.89 | -4.11 | -1.78 |
| 2025-12-29 | -6.10 | -3.66 | -2.44 |
| 2025-12-26 | -6.24 | -3.05 | -3.19 |
| 2025-12-24 | -6.60 | -2.25 | -4.35 |
| 2025-12-23 | -6.77 | -1.16 | -5.61 |
EMA values for AVGO with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 354.39 |
| 2026-01-06 | 354.84 |
| 2026-01-05 | 355.29 |
| 2026-01-02 | 355.77 |
| 2025-12-31 | 356.11 |
| 2025-12-30 | 356.52 |
| 2025-12-29 | 356.79 |
| 2025-12-26 | 357.09 |
| 2025-12-24 | 357.29 |
| 2025-12-23 | 357.58 |
EMA values for AVGO with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 304.90 |
| 2026-01-06 | 304.51 |
| 2026-01-05 | 304.12 |
| 2026-01-02 | 303.72 |
| 2025-12-31 | 303.28 |
| 2025-12-30 | 302.85 |
| 2025-12-29 | 302.38 |
| 2025-12-26 | 301.91 |
| 2025-12-24 | 301.40 |
| 2025-12-23 | 300.91 |
RSI values for AVGO in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 42.81 |
| 2026-01-06 | 42.95 |
| 2026-01-05 | 42.72 |
| 2026-01-02 | 44.74 |
| 2025-12-31 | 43.85 |
| 2025-12-30 | 45.53 |
| 2025-12-29 | 45.29 |
| 2025-12-26 | 46.42 |
| 2025-12-24 | 45.54 |
| 2025-12-23 | 45.15 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for AVGO over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 33.29
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | 335.55 | 0.50 | 33.29 |
| 2026-01-07 | 343.03 | 0.85 | 45.82 |
| 2026-01-06 | 343.61 | 1.32 | 56.91 |
| 2026-01-05 | 344.98 | 4.11 | 80.45 |
| 2026-01-02 | 351.28 | 3.15 | 75.91 |
| 2025-12-31 | 347.13 | 1.60 | 61.60 |
| 2025-12-30 | 350.61 | 1.27 | 55.96 |
| 2025-12-29 | 348.14 | 0.89 | 47.21 |
| 2025-12-26 | 351.04 | 0.69 | 40.84 |
| 2025-12-24 | 350.07 | 0.56 | 35.91 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for AVGO, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 332.48
Latest SMA: 350.29
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 306.71
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 393.88
ADX for AVGO, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 12.73
Volume and volume ratio for AVGO:
Last 30 days average volume: 36.2M
Today's volume: 24.4M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.67
No VWAP data for AVGO.
Support levels for AVGO (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 246.46 on 2025-06-23 (UTC)
Last High: 414.61 on 2025-12-10 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 349.35, 38.2%: 308.98, 50.0%: 276.36, 61.8%: 243.73, 78.6%: 197.27
Resonance Supports: 61.8%: 243.73
Short interest data for AVGO in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 69.8M | 36M | 1.94 |
| 2025-11-28 | 56.4M | 26.3M | 2.14 |
| 2025-11-14 | 54.5M | 18.5M | 2.95 |
| 2025-10-31 | 54.7M | 19.3M | 2.83 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.6M | 22.8M | 2.31 |
| 2025-09-30 | 54.3M | 25.4M | 2.14 |
| 2025-09-15 | 49.7M | 34.9M | 1.43 |
| 2025-08-29 | 39.6M | 18.3M | 2.16 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.3M | 17.1M | 2.54 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.5M | 17.1M | 2.55 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320 | 0.42 | -0.35 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0.35 | 9.90 | 9.55 |
| 310 | 0.43 | -0.26 | 0.01 | -0.21 | 0.30 | 6.80 | 6.50 |
| 300 | 0.44 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.25 | 4.55 | 4.30 |
| 290 | 0.46 | -0.13 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.20 | 2.96 | 2.84 |
| 280 | 0.47 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.15 | 1.90 | 1.71 |
| 270 | 0.49 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.09 | 0.11 | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| 260 | 0.51 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0.08 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| 250 | 0.54 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.05 | 0.59 | 0.42 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-23:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320 | 0.39 | -0.30 | 0.01 | -0.29 | 0.23 | 5.25 | 5.05 |
| 310 | 0.40 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.23 | 0.18 | 2.88 | 2.78 |
| 300 | 0.42 | -0.11 | 0.01 | -0.17 | 0.12 | 1.57 | 1.48 |
| 290 | 0.45 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.08 | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| 280 | 0.47 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| 270 | 0.50 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| 260 | 0.53 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| 250 | 0.55 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a cautious bias toward Sell on any bounce)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: AVGO's most recent earnings were strong (EPS of $1.95 vs. $1.87 consensus), and the company has not missed estimates in the past 8 quarters. However, the current P/E of 55.1 is at the absolute top of its 1-, 2-, and 5-year ranges, indicating extreme valuation. Management sentiment in the last earnings call was slightly negative (CEO score 0.42, IR 0.45, where 0.5 is neutral). Most concerning is the consistent and substantial insider selling over the last 90 days, with over $100M in net sales across multiple executives. This suggests insiders believe the stock is fully valued or overvalued.
-
Technical: The stock is in a clear downtrend from its December high of ~$414. The current price of $332.48 is below the 50-day EMA (~$354) and the 200-day EMA (~$305), with the 50-day EMA trending down. MACD is deeply negative and its histogram is worsening, indicating strong bearish momentum. RSI at ~43 is not yet oversold. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has plunged from 80.45 to 33.29 in just 10 days, showing severe selling pressure. Volume is below average today, suggesting the sell-off may not be complete. Key support levels are at the 200-day EMA (~$305), the Bollinger lower band (~$307), and the Fibonacci 38.2% level (~$309).
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is mixed but leans positive, highlighting strong AI revenue growth and future potential. However, the stock fell 14% in December despite good earnings, indicating a "sell the news" reaction. The macroeconomic backdrop is late-cycle with high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator >220%), a low savings rate, and a Fed that has shifted to easing (rates at 3.7%). This environment favors caution toward highly valued growth stocks.
-
Option Chain: Implied Volatility (IV) for puts is elevated (42-55%), indicating options markets are pricing in significant downside risk. The high put open interest at the $320 and $310 strikes aligns with key technical support levels, suggesting these are areas where traders expect either a bounce or a breakdown.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: DO NOT BUY HERE. The trend is decisively down. A cautious entry would only be considered on a significant washout near major support, specifically in the $305 - $310 zone (200-day EMA, Bollinger lower band, Fibonacci 38.2% support). Any entry requires a confirmed reversal signal (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, RSI divergence, MACD crossover).
-
Profit Targets:
- If entering near $308: First target is the 50-day EMA (currently ~$354), a ~15% gain. This is a aggressive trade for nimble traders only.
- Long-term: No long-term buy-and-hold thesis is justified until the valuation (P/E) resets meaningfully lower or growth accelerates dramatically to justify the premium.
-
Stop-Loss: Any long position must have a tight stop-loss below $300, as a break of the 200-day EMA and key Fibonacci support would likely trigger a much deeper decline toward $280 or lower.
-
Time Horizon: Any long trade would be a short- to medium-term (2-8 week) counter-trend bounce play, not a long-term investment. The next earnings date (March 4, 2026) is the next major catalyst.
Final Notes: The combination of extreme valuation, persistent insider selling, and a breakdown in price momentum creates a high-risk profile. The stock is not in a "buy the dip" scenario; it is in a "don't catch a falling knife" scenario. The prudent action is to wait on the sidelines. More aggressive, risk-tolerant traders could consider selling premium (e.g., selling out-of-the-money cash-secured puts) at the $300 or $290 strike to generate income while defining a lower, more attractive entry price if assigned. For most investors, Neutral/Hold is the appropriate stance, and existing holders should consider tightening stop-losses or hedging.