COIN 2025-12-08
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-08
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.50
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.18
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-05
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.71
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 3 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 5.14
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): -0.01
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-12
Valuation Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-08
Current P/E for COIN: 28.89
1 year P/E range: 28.89 - 35.25
2 years P/E range: 28.89 - 915.37
5 years P/E range: -27.64 - 915.37
Management Sentiment Summary for COIN in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Vice President of Investor Relations | 0.33 |
| Co-Founder and CEO | 0.68 |
| CFO | 0.59 |
| President and COO | 0.60 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
On 2025-12-03, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 10K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $253.268 and $265.6267.
The insiders have 2.6M shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-02, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 1.4K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $272.8438 and $273.58.
The insiders have 809 shares left in the company.
On 2025-12-01, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 976 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $260.0012 and $260.0012.
The insiders have 74.8K shares left in the company.
On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 5.9K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $244.4669 and $257.30.
The insiders have 39.6K shares left in the company.
On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 1.8K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $244.49 and $244.49.
The insiders have 0 shares left in the company.
On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 12K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $241.5799 and $250.6466.
The insiders have 814K shares left in the company.
On 2025-11-24, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.
Total of 869 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $259.93 and $259.93.
The insiders have 1.8K shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for COIN
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 259.2
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 231.17
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 258.22
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 240.74
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 243.02
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 220.82
Price Range for COIN
COIN current price: $269.73
5-Day Range: $252.20 - $284.24
50-Day Range: $231.17 - $402.16
200-Day Range: $142.58 - $444.65
Technical Indicators Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-08
MACD values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 3.57 | -13.42 | -16.99 |
| 2025-12-04 | 3.38 | -14.51 | -17.88 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2.60 | -16.12 | -18.73 |
| 2025-12-02 | 1.13 | -18.25 | -19.38 |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.36 | -19.30 | -19.66 |
| 2025-11-28 | -0.26 | -20.02 | -19.75 |
| 2025-11-26 | -2.27 | -21.96 | -19.69 |
| 2025-11-25 | -4.20 | -23.32 | -19.12 |
| 2025-11-24 | -5.55 | -23.62 | -18.07 |
| 2025-11-21 | -7.16 | -23.84 | -16.68 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 299.24 |
| 2025-12-04 | 300.44 |
| 2025-12-03 | 301.52 |
| 2025-12-02 | 302.53 |
| 2025-12-01 | 304.13 |
| 2025-11-28 | 305.94 |
| 2025-11-26 | 307.29 |
| 2025-11-25 | 309.02 |
| 2025-11-24 | 311.26 |
| 2025-11-21 | 313.51 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 293.04 |
| 2025-12-04 | 293.27 |
| 2025-12-03 | 293.47 |
| 2025-12-02 | 293.63 |
| 2025-12-01 | 293.94 |
| 2025-11-28 | 294.28 |
| 2025-11-26 | 294.50 |
| 2025-11-25 | 294.79 |
| 2025-11-24 | 295.20 |
| 2025-11-21 | 295.60 |
RSI values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 44.24 |
| 2025-12-04 | 45.74 |
| 2025-12-03 | 46.72 |
| 2025-12-02 | 41.14 |
| 2025-12-01 | 39.67 |
| 2025-11-28 | 43.50 |
| 2025-11-26 | 40.26 |
| 2025-11-25 | 35.52 |
| 2025-11-24 | 35.98 |
| 2025-11-21 | 28.91 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for COIN over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 58.55
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | 58.55 | 1.41 | 269.60 |
| 2025-12-04 | 54.38 | 1.19 | 276.52 |
| 2025-12-03 | 44.88 | 0.81 | 272.88 |
| 2025-12-02 | 35.30 | 0.55 | 266.34 |
| 2025-12-01 | 25.17 | 0.34 | 259.31 |
| 2025-11-28 | 25.03 | 0.33 | 273.99 |
| 2025-11-26 | 16.50 | 0.20 | 261.81 |
| 2025-11-25 | 8.25 | 0.09 | 249.74 |
| 2025-11-24 | 8.24 | 0.09 | 252.31 |
| 2025-11-21 | 9.19 | 0.10 | 239.24 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for COIN, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 269.73
Latest SMA: 272.77
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 228.75
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 316.8
ADX for COIN, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 0.2
Volume and volume ratio for COIN:
Last 30 days average volume: 10.3M
Today's volume: 7.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.69
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 271.75
Support levels for COIN (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 231.17 on 2025-11-21 (UTC)
Last High: 444.64 on 2025-07-18 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 373.36, 38.2%: 329.26, 50.0%: 293.61, 61.8%: 257.97, 78.6%: 207.22
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for COIN in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 9.8M | 1.59 | 15.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 9.1M | 1.48 | 13.4M |
| 2025-10-15 | 10.4M | 1.26 | 13M |
| 2025-09-30 | 9.3M | 1.44 | 13.4M |
| 2025-09-15 | 7.8M | 1.76 | 13.8M |
| 2025-08-29 | 8.1M | 1.47 | 11.9M |
| 2025-08-15 | 14.3M | 1.00 | 12.5M |
| 2025-07-31 | 13.6M | 1.00 | 10.3M |
| 2025-07-15 | 12.6M | 1.05 | 13.2M |
| 2025-06-30 | 23.3M | 1.00 | 14M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
COIN 265 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5875, delta: -0.4181, gamma: 0.0083, theta: -0.2728, vega: 0.3118 ask price: 17.0, bid price: 14.7
COIN 260 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5832, delta: -0.3755, gamma: 0.0081, theta: -0.264, vega: 0.3029 ask price: 14.75, bid price: 12.05
COIN 255 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5942, delta: -0.3354, gamma: 0.0077, theta: -0.2595, vega: 0.291 ask price: 12.7, bid price: 10.55
COIN 250 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5976, delta: -0.2961, gamma: 0.0072, theta: -0.2483, vega: 0.276 ask price: 10.8, bid price: 8.85
COIN 245 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.6213, delta: -0.2637, gamma: 0.0066, theta: -0.2449, vega: 0.2609 ask price: 9.3, bid price: 8.2
COIN 240 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.6091, delta: -0.2251, gamma: 0.0062, theta: -0.2209, vega: 0.2395 ask price: 7.75, bid price: 6.1
COIN 235 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5981, delta: -0.1882, gamma: 0.0056, theta: -0.1954, vega: 0.2154 ask price: 6.05, bid price: 4.7
COIN 230 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.6099, delta: -0.1611, gamma: 0.005, theta: -0.181, vega: 0.1951 ask price: 5.7, bid price: 3.3
Weekly options:
COIN 265 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.6738, delta: -0.4137, gamma: 0.0124, theta: -0.5457, vega: 0.1824 ask price: 10.35, bid price: 9.9
COIN 260 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.6759, delta: -0.3519, gamma: 0.0117, theta: -0.5229, vega: 0.1738 ask price: 8.25, bid price: 7.8
COIN 255 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.6866, delta: -0.295, gamma: 0.0107, theta: -0.4951, vega: 0.1615 ask price: 6.8, bid price: 5.95
COIN 250 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.6789, delta: -0.2383, gamma: 0.0097, theta: -0.4401, vega: 0.145 ask price: 5.05, bid price: 4.4
COIN 245 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.6861, delta: -0.1908, gamma: 0.0085, theta: -0.3914, vega: 0.1274 ask price: 3.8, bid price: 3.35
COIN 240 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.7085, delta: -0.1541, gamma: 0.0072, theta: -0.3532, vega: 0.1111 ask price: 2.91, bid price: 2.73
COIN 235 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.7151, delta: -0.119, gamma: 0.0059, theta: -0.299, vega: 0.0931 ask price: 2.25, bid price: 1.88
COIN 230 put expires on 2025-12-19
iv: 0.7327, delta: -0.0928, gamma: 0.0048, theta: -0.2561, vega: 0.0777 ask price: 1.69, bid price: 1.44
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral
Reasoning:
-
Financial: COIN's most recent earnings beat consensus (EPS 1.50 vs. 1.18), but the historical average EPS over the last 8 quarters is 1.71, indicating recent performance is below its recent average. The company has missed earnings estimates 3 times in the last 8 quarters, showing inconsistency. The current P/E of 28.89 is at the low end of its 1-year range (28.89-35.25), suggesting the stock is not expensive relative to its recent history, but it remains elevated on an absolute basis. Management sentiment from the Q3 earnings call was moderately positive (CEO 0.68, CFO 0.59, COO 0.60), though the VP of IR was notably negative (0.33). A significant red flag is the consistent and substantial insider selling over the last 90 days, with multiple filings showing executives liquidating shares, often leaving minimal remaining holdings. This activity suggests insiders may believe the stock is fully valued or are taking profits after a strong run.
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Technical: The stock price ($269.73) is below both its 50-day EMA (~299) and 200-day EMA (~293), indicating a bearish intermediate and long-term trend. The MACD histogram has recently turned positive (3.57 on Dec 5), but the MACD line itself remains deeply negative (-13.42), suggesting any bullish momentum is very early and weak. The RSI at 44.24 is neutral, not indicating overbought or oversold conditions. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 58.55 shows moderate buying pressure. The stock is trading below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 272.77) and is closer to the Bollinger Lower Band (228.75) than the Upper Band (316.8). Key support levels from the Fibonacci retracement of the last major move are at 257.97 (61.8%) and 207.22 (78.6%). Volume is below the 30-day average (0.69 ratio), suggesting a lack of conviction in the current price move. The ADX is extremely low at 0.2, indicating a complete absence of a directional trend.
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News & Macro: News sentiment is mixed, with articles highlighting both strong quarterly performance and recent sharp declines amid crypto market volatility. The broader macroeconomic context from the report describes a "late-cycle expansion" with high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator at 224.9%) and a cooling labor market. For a crypto-correlated stock like COIN, this environment of potential risk-off sentiment and high overall market valuation adds a layer of macro risk. The SPY is recommended as "Hold" in a strong uptrend but at resistance, suggesting limited broad market tailwinds for a speculative name like COIN in the near term.
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Option Chain: Implied volatility (IV) for both weekly and monthly puts is elevated (ranging from ~58% to ~73%), reflecting high expected price swings and significant uncertainty/risk priced into the options market. The put options show increasing delta (more negative) as strikes move higher, with the $265 strike for the Jan monthly put having a delta of -0.42, indicating the market assigns a meaningful probability of the stock finishing below $265 by expiration. This aligns with the technical picture showing the stock below key moving averages.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Given the weak technicals, insider selling, and lack of a clear trend, there is no compelling low-risk entry point at the current price ($269.73). A more prudent entry would require a significant pullback to a stronger support zone. Ideal buy zone: $245 - $258. This range encompasses the recent low from November ($231.17) provides a buffer, the price below the mean by one standard deviation ($243.02), the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($257.97), and aligns with several put strike prices ($245, $250, $255) where option markets show increased hedging activity.
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Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Trade): A bounce from the support zone could target a move back towards the 50-day EMA, currently near $299 (~12-16% gain from the lower end of the entry zone).
- Long-term (Hold): Not recommended for a new position given the current risk profile. Any long-term hold would require a fundamental catalyst (e.g., sustained crypto bull market, major new revenue stream) and a clear technical reversal.
-
Time Horizon: Short-to-medium term (2-8 weeks) if entering in the support zone, aiming to capitalize on a technical rebound. This is a tactical trade, not a long-term investment thesis.
Final Notes: COIN is a high-beta stock heavily tied to cryptocurrency market sentiment, which adds significant volatility and unpredictable risk. The combination of persistent insider selling, a breakdown below key moving averages, and a neutral-to-negative near-term catalyst outlook (mixed news, high macro valuations) outweighs the positive earnings beat and moderately positive management commentary. The risk/reward is unfavorable at the current price. Investors should avoid new long positions and existing holders should consider tightening stop-losses. A move below the November low of $231.17 would signal a high probability of a deeper decline towards the $207 Fibonacci support.