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COIN 2025-12-15

Created on

Financial Report

Earnings Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-15

Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.50

Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.18

Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-05

Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30

Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.71

In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 3 times.

Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 5.14

Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): -0.01

Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-12

Valuation Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-15

Current P/E for COIN: 28.89

1 year P/E range: 28.89 - 35.25

2 years P/E range: 28.89 - 915.37

5 years P/E range: -27.64 - 915.37

Management Sentiment Summary for COIN in 2025Q3 earnings call:

The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:

The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.

TitleSentiment Score
Vice President of Investor Relations0.33
Co-Founder and CEO0.68
CFO0.59
President and COO0.60

Insider transactions in the last 90 days:

On 2025-12-10, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 2.8K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $280.2666 and $280.2666.

The insiders have 0 shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-10, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 40K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $271.5749 and $276.069.

The insiders have 96.9K shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-10, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 40K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $255.4664 and $259.1459.

The insiders have 78.8K shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-08, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 4.1K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $273.9933 and $274.3838.

The insiders have 715 shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-03, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 10K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $253.268 and $265.6267.

The insiders have 2.6M shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-02, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 1.4K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $272.8438 and $273.58.

The insiders have 809 shares left in the company.

On 2025-12-01, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 976 shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $260.0012 and $260.0012.

The insiders have 74.8K shares left in the company.

On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 5.9K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $244.4669 and $257.30.

The insiders have 39.6K shares left in the company.

On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 1.8K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $244.49 and $244.49.

The insiders have 0 shares left in the company.

On 2025-11-26, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COIN.

Total of 12K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $241.5799 and $250.6466.

The insiders have 814K shares left in the company.

Technical Report

Price Distribution for COIN

25th percentile in the past 20 days: 256.96

Lowest price in the past 20 days: 231.17

Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 252.2

Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 243.01

Price below mean by one standard deviation: 244.43

Price below mean by two standard deviations: 232.27

Price Range for COIN

COIN current price: $250.42

5-Day Range: $246.80 - $284.74

50-Day Range: $231.17 - $402.16

200-Day Range: $142.58 - $444.65

Technical Indicators Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-15

MACD values for COIN in the past 14 days:

Datehistogrammacdsignal
2025-12-123.35-8.70-12.05
2025-12-113.84-9.05-12.88
2025-12-104.32-9.52-13.84
2025-12-094.32-10.60-14.92
2025-12-083.95-12.05-16.00
2025-12-053.57-13.42-16.99
2025-12-043.38-14.51-17.88
2025-12-032.60-16.12-18.73
2025-12-021.13-18.25-19.38
2025-12-010.36-19.30-19.66

EMA values for COIN with a window of 50 days:

DateValue
2025-12-12294.38
2025-12-11295.48
2025-12-10296.56
2025-12-09297.44
2025-12-08298.26
2025-12-05299.24
2025-12-04300.45
2025-12-03301.52
2025-12-02302.53
2025-12-01304.13

EMA values for COIN with a window of 200 days:

DateValue
2025-12-12292.14
2025-12-11292.39
2025-12-10292.63
2025-12-09292.80
2025-12-08292.96
2025-12-05293.15
2025-12-04293.38
2025-12-03293.58
2025-12-02293.75
2025-12-01294.05

RSI values for COIN in the past 14 days:

DateValue
2025-12-1243.48
2025-12-1144.13
2025-12-1046.66
2025-12-0947.61
2025-12-0846.20
2025-12-0544.22
2025-12-0445.73
2025-12-0346.71
2025-12-0241.12
2025-12-0139.65

Money Flow Index (MFI) for COIN over the last 10 trading days:

Latest MFI: 59.51

DateMFIMoney Flow RatioTypical Price
2025-12-1559.511.47255.27
2025-12-1258.501.41269.61
2025-12-1158.971.44266.30
2025-12-1069.232.25275.10
2025-12-0968.462.17276.31
2025-12-0868.942.22273.45
2025-12-0558.551.41269.60
2025-12-0454.381.19276.52
2025-12-0344.880.81272.88
2025-12-0235.300.55266.34

Bollinger lower and higher band for COIN, calculated for the past 20 days

Number of Standard Deviations: 2

Latest Close: 250.42

Latest SMA: 263.34

Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 240.62

Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 286.06

ADX for COIN, calculated for the past 14 days

ADX: 8.68

Volume and volume ratio for COIN:

Last 30 days average volume: 9.9M

Today's volume: 10.9M

Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.1

Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 263.76

Support levels for COIN (last 200 trading days):

Last Low: 231.17 on 2025-11-21 (UTC)

Last High: 444.64 on 2025-07-18 (UTC)

Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 373.36, 38.2%: 329.26, 50.0%: 293.61, 61.8%: 257.97, 78.6%: 207.22

Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).

Short interest data for COIN in the past 5 months:

Report DateAvg Daily VolumeDays to CoverShort Interest
2025-11-2811.5M1.4516.7M
2025-11-149.8M1.5915.6M
2025-10-319.1M1.4813.4M
2025-10-1510.4M1.2613M
2025-09-309.3M1.4413.4M
2025-09-157.8M1.7613.8M
2025-08-298.1M1.4711.9M
2025-08-1514.3M1.0012.5M
2025-07-3113.6M1.0010.3M
2025-07-1512.6M1.0513.2M

Option Chain

Monthly options:

COIN 245 put expires on 2026-01-16

No option chain data available. COIN 240 put expires on 2026-01-16

iv: 0.5658, delta: -0.3625, gamma: 0.0089, theta: -0.2351, vega: 0.2778 ask price: 11.65, bid price: 11.2

COIN 235 put expires on 2026-01-16

No option chain data available. COIN 230 put expires on 2026-01-16

iv: 0.5728, delta: -0.2741, gamma: 0.0079, theta: -0.213, vega: 0.2468 ask price: 7.95, bid price: 7.7

COIN 225 put expires on 2026-01-16

No option chain data available. COIN 220 put expires on 2026-01-16

iv: 0.5872, delta: -0.1989, gamma: 0.0064, theta: -0.184, vega: 0.2067 ask price: 5.35, bid price: 5.15

COIN 215 put expires on 2026-01-16

No option chain data available. COIN 210 put expires on 2026-01-16

iv: 0.6046, delta: -0.1387, gamma: 0.0049, theta: -0.1508, vega: 0.1638 ask price: 3.7, bid price: 3.15

Weekly options:

COIN 245 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.5584, delta: -0.391, gamma: 0.0158, theta: -0.4125, vega: 0.1668 ask price: 7.2, bid price: 6.95

COIN 240 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.5672, delta: -0.3144, gamma: 0.0144, theta: -0.3888, vega: 0.1542 ask price: 5.4, bid price: 5.15

COIN 235 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.5842, delta: -0.2483, gamma: 0.0125, theta: -0.3584, vega: 0.1375 ask price: 4.1, bid price: 3.8

COIN 230 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.597, delta: -0.1908, gamma: 0.0105, theta: -0.3155, vega: 0.1182 ask price: 2.93, bid price: 2.8

COIN 225 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.6097, delta: -0.1431, gamma: 0.0085, theta: -0.268, vega: 0.0981 ask price: 2.1, bid price: 1.97

COIN 220 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.6522, delta: -0.1145, gamma: 0.0068, theta: -0.2461, vega: 0.0841 ask price: 1.92, bid price: 1.4

COIN 215 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.6484, delta: -0.0788, gamma: 0.0052, theta: -0.186, vega: 0.0638 ask price: 1.19, bid price: 0.91

COIN 210 put expires on 2025-12-26

iv: 0.6624, delta: -0.0559, gamma: 0.0039, theta: -0.1458, vega: 0.0489 ask price: 0.8, bid price: 0.63

Final Report

Recommendation: Sell

Reasoning:

  • Financial:

    • Earnings & Valuation: Recent EPS of $1.50 beat consensus ($1.18), but the 8-quarter average EPS ($1.71) is higher, indicating a potential peak. The P/E of 28.9 is elevated relative to historical lows, though down from extremes.
    • Management Sentiment: Mixed—CEO and COO are positive (scores 0.68, 0.60), but VP of IR is notably negative (0.33), suggesting internal caution.
    • Insider Activity: Heavy selling over the past 90 days (~112K shares sold), often a bearish signal, especially as some insiders reduced holdings to zero.
  • Technical:

    • Trend & Momentum: Price ($250.42) is below all key EMAs (50-day EMA ~$294, 200-day EMA ~$292), confirming a strong downtrend. MACD histogram is positive but rising from deeply negative levels, indicating weak momentum recovery. RSI (43.48) is neutral but has been declining.
    • Support/Resistance: Current price is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($257.97) but below the 20-day SMA ($263.34). Strong support lies at the recent low of $231.17.
    • Volume & Short Interest: Volume is slightly above average (ratio 1.1), but short interest has risen (16.7M shares, up from 10.3M in July), reflecting growing bearish sentiment.
  • News:

    • Sentiment is mixed but leans negative (4 negative vs. 3 positive articles). Recent headlines highlight a 34% price drop in November, exposure to crypto volatility, and high-risk leverage offerings. Positive news (platform expansions) is outweighed by broader market concerns.
    • Macro Context: Elevated inflation (CPI 324.4), restrictive Fed policy (3.9% rate), and high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator 226.3%) create a risky environment for speculative assets like crypto stocks.
  • Option Chain:

    • Put options show elevated implied volatility (IV 56–66%), indicating high expected price swings. The concentration of put open interest at strikes $240–$245 suggests these are near-term support targets.

Strategy to Minimize Risk:

  1. Entry Price: Not applicable for a sell recommendation. For existing holders, consider exiting on any bounce toward $260–$265 (near 50-day EMA).
  2. Profit Targets:
    • Short-term downside target: $231 (recent low).
    • Secondary target: $220 (next Fibonacci level).
  3. Stop-Loss: If shorting, set a stop above $265 (above recent resistance).
  4. Time Horizon: 2–6 weeks, aligning with upcoming earnings (Feb 12, 2026) and crypto market volatility.

Final Notes:

  • COIN is highly correlated to Bitcoin volatility. Any crypto market sell-off could accelerate declines.
  • The stock is in a technical downtrend with weak fundamentals and negative insider signals. Avoid new longs until price stabilizes above key moving averages ($290+).
  • Monitor Fed policy and crypto regulatory news for catalysts.