COIN 2025-12-25
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-25
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.50
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.18
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-05
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.71
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 3 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 5.14
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): -0.01
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-12
Valuation Data Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-25
Current P/E for COIN: 28.89
1 year P/E range: 28.89 - 35.25
2 years P/E range: 28.89 - 915.37
5 years P/E range: -27.64 - 915.37
Management Sentiment Summary for COIN in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Vice President of Investor Relations | 0.33 |
| Co-Founder and CEO | 0.68 |
| CFO | 0.59 |
| President and COO | 0.60 |
Insider transactions for COIN in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | -40K | $250.15 | Sell | 64.6K |
| 2025-12-18 | -1.4K | $252.82 | Sell | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | -7.4K | $266.85 | Sell | 244K |
| 2025-12-09 | -2.8K | $280.27 | Sell | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | -40K | $273.86 | Sell | 96.9K |
| 2025-12-04 | -4.1K | $274.06 | Sell | 715 |
| 2025-12-01 | -10K | $259.19 | Sell | 2.6M |
| 2025-11-28 | -1.4K | $273.28 | Sell | 809 |
| 2025-11-26 | -41K | $257.37 | Sell | 153.6K |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for COIN
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 247.2
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 237.14
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 250.32
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 240.85
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 243.66
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 231.72
Price Range for COIN
COIN current price: $239.73
5-Day Range: $237.14 - $255.41
50-Day Range: $231.17 - $373.25
200-Day Range: $142.58 - $444.65
Technical Indicators Summary for COIN as of 2025-12-25
MACD values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | -12.21 | -11.80 | -0.41 |
| 2025-12-22 | -12.08 | -11.70 | -0.38 |
| 2025-12-19 | -12.30 | -11.61 | -0.69 |
| 2025-12-18 | -12.12 | -11.43 | -0.69 |
| 2025-12-17 | -11.12 | -11.26 | 0.15 |
| 2025-12-16 | -10.18 | -11.30 | 1.12 |
| 2025-12-15 | -9.69 | -11.58 | 1.89 |
| 2025-12-12 | -8.70 | -12.05 | 3.35 |
| 2025-12-11 | -9.05 | -12.89 | 3.84 |
| 2025-12-10 | -9.52 | -13.85 | 4.33 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 282.51 |
| 2025-12-22 | 284.15 |
| 2025-12-19 | 285.63 |
| 2025-12-18 | 287.29 |
| 2025-12-17 | 289.25 |
| 2025-12-16 | 291.09 |
| 2025-12-15 | 292.66 |
| 2025-12-12 | 294.39 |
| 2025-12-11 | 295.48 |
| 2025-12-10 | 296.56 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 289.14 |
| 2025-12-22 | 289.61 |
| 2025-12-19 | 290.03 |
| 2025-12-18 | 290.48 |
| 2025-12-17 | 291.00 |
| 2025-12-16 | 291.47 |
| 2025-12-15 | 291.86 |
| 2025-12-12 | 292.27 |
| 2025-12-11 | 292.52 |
| 2025-12-10 | 292.76 |
RSI values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 37.05 |
| 2025-12-22 | 39.27 |
| 2025-12-19 | 37.54 |
| 2025-12-18 | 33.81 |
| 2025-12-17 | 35.47 |
| 2025-12-16 | 38.42 |
| 2025-12-15 | 37.16 |
| 2025-12-12 | 43.61 |
| 2025-12-11 | 44.27 |
| 2025-12-10 | 46.80 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for COIN over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 18.82
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-24 | 239.29 | 0.23 | 18.82 |
| 2025-12-23 | 242.10 | 0.22 | 17.97 |
| 2025-12-22 | 250.07 | 0.38 | 27.72 |
| 2025-12-19 | 244.32 | 0.39 | 27.93 |
| 2025-12-18 | 244.57 | 0.40 | 28.82 |
| 2025-12-17 | 249.15 | 0.62 | 38.29 |
| 2025-12-16 | 253.31 | 0.99 | 49.80 |
| 2025-12-15 | 255.27 | 1.47 | 59.49 |
| 2025-12-12 | 269.61 | 1.41 | 58.50 |
| 2025-12-11 | 266.30 | 1.44 | 58.97 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for COIN, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 239.73
Latest SMA: 260.31
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 232.91
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 287.7
ADX for COIN, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 32.19
Volume and volume ratio for COIN:
Last 30 days average volume: 9.3M
Today's volume: 3.9M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.42
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 260.59
Support levels for COIN (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 231.17 on 2025-11-21 (UTC)
Last High: 444.64 on 2025-07-18 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 373.36, 38.2%: 329.26, 50.0%: 293.61, 61.8%: 257.97, 78.6%: 207.22
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for COIN in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 16M | 8.3M | 1.94 |
| 2025-11-28 | 16.7M | 11.5M | 1.45 |
| 2025-11-14 | 15.6M | 9.8M | 1.59 |
| 2025-10-31 | 13.4M | 9.1M | 1.48 |
| 2025-10-15 | 13M | 10.4M | 1.26 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.4M | 9.3M | 1.44 |
| 2025-09-15 | 13.8M | 7.8M | 1.76 |
| 2025-08-29 | 11.9M | 8.1M | 1.47 |
| 2025-08-15 | 12.5M | 14.3M | 1.00 |
| 2025-07-31 | 10.3M | 13.6M | 1.00 |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
COIN 235 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.4744, delta: -0.409, gamma: 0.0119, theta: -0.1999, vega: 0.2668 ask price: 11.0, bid price: 9.8
COIN 230 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.4833, delta: -0.3506, gamma: 0.0112, theta: -0.1956, vega: 0.2545 ask price: 8.95, bid price: 8.0
COIN 225 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.489, delta: -0.2954, gamma: 0.0103, theta: -0.1853, vega: 0.2371 ask price: 7.1, bid price: 6.4
COIN 220 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.4868, delta: -0.2418, gamma: 0.0093, theta: -0.1675, vega: 0.2143 ask price: 5.5, bid price: 4.75
COIN 215 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.5051, delta: -0.2007, gamma: 0.0081, theta: -0.1569, vega: 0.1927 ask price: 4.55, bid price: 3.8
COIN 210 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.5041, delta: -0.1579, gamma: 0.007, theta: -0.135, vega: 0.1656 ask price: 3.3, bid price: 2.83
COIN 205 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.5228, delta: -0.1285, gamma: 0.0058, theta: -0.1222, vega: 0.1441 ask price: 2.66, bid price: 2.27
COIN 200 put expires on 2026-01-23
iv: 0.5254, delta: -0.0981, gamma: 0.0048, theta: -0.1015, vega: 0.1188 ask price: 1.91, bid price: 1.65
Weekly options:
COIN 235 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.463, delta: -0.3969, gamma: 0.0166, theta: -0.2694, vega: 0.1933 ask price: 7.1, bid price: 6.75
COIN 230 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.4718, delta: -0.317, gamma: 0.0151, theta: -0.2551, vega: 0.1786 ask price: 5.4, bid price: 4.85
COIN 225 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.471, delta: -0.2421, gamma: 0.0132, theta: -0.2243, vega: 0.1566 ask price: 3.65, bid price: 3.45
COIN 220 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.4856, delta: -0.1834, gamma: 0.0109, theta: -0.1973, vega: 0.1331 ask price: 2.77, bid price: 2.34
COIN 215 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.4925, delta: -0.1326, gamma: 0.0087, theta: -0.1621, vega: 0.1075 ask price: 1.95, bid price: 1.5
COIN 210 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5068, delta: -0.0955, gamma: 0.0067, theta: -0.1323, vega: 0.0851 ask price: 1.28, bid price: 1.1
COIN 205 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5267, delta: -0.0693, gamma: 0.005, theta: -0.1082, vega: 0.0668 ask price: 0.93, bid price: 0.76
COIN 200 put expires on 2026-01-09
iv: 0.5272, delta: -0.0443, gamma: 0.0035, theta: -0.0762, vega: 0.0469 ask price: 0.7, bid price: 0.3
Final Report
Recommendation: Sell
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Earnings have been volatile and declining from historical highs (average EPS of 1.71, recent 1.50). While the most recent quarter beat consensus, the company has missed estimates 3 times in the last 8 quarters. Valuation is elevated with a P/E of 28.89, near the top of its 1-year range. Management sentiment in the last earnings call was mixed-to-neutral (CEO 0.68, CFO 0.59, IR 0.33). Most concerning is the consistent and significant insider selling over the last 90 days, with no offsetting purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from those closest to the company.
-
Technical: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend. The current price ($239.73) is below all key moving averages (50-day EMA ~$282.51, 200-day EMA ~$289.14). Momentum indicators are bearish: MACD is negative and below its signal line, RSI is weak (~37) but not yet oversold, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is deeply oversold at 18.82, signaling intense selling pressure. Volume is light today (ratio 0.42), suggesting a lack of buying interest. The price is near the lower Bollinger Band (~$232.91) and the recent 50-day low of $231.17, which may offer temporary support.
-
News: News sentiment is mixed but leans slightly positive (4 positive, 1 negative out of 10). Positive news includes institutional partnerships (e.g., Virtune ETP custody), but these are offset by regulatory headwinds (lawsuits) and analyst concerns about near-term crypto market weakness. The broader macroeconomic context is one of late-cycle expansion with high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator 223.8%) and sticky inflation, which could limit risk appetite for speculative assets like crypto-correlated stocks.
-
Option Chain: The option market shows elevated implied volatility (IV ~47-53% for puts), reflecting high expected price swings. The put skew (higher IV for lower strikes) and significant open interest in puts at strikes like $235 and $230 indicate traders are hedging or betting on further downside. The high negative delta and theta for near-term puts underscore the cost and directional bias of protection.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: This is a recommendation to sell or reduce exposure. For those considering new short positions or puts, an entry near current levels ($239-$242) could be considered, with a stop above the 50-day EMA (~$285).
- Profit Targets (for short positions/puts):
- Short-term: $231 (near the 50-day low and Bollinger Lower Band), then $220 (next Fibonacci/psychological support).
- A break below $231 could target the 200-day low of $207.22.
- Time Horizon: Short-to-medium term (2-8 weeks), aligning with the next earnings date (Feb 12, 2026), which could be a volatility catalyst.
Final Notes: COIN is exhibiting classic signs of a bearish trend: deteriorating price action below key averages, intense selling pressure (MFI), and persistent insider selling. While the stock is technically oversold on some metrics (MFI), the fundamental backdrop (high P/E, declining earnings trend, crypto market sensitivity) and weak technical structure suggest any bounce is likely to be sold into. The primary risk to a bearish view is a sharp, broad-based rally in crypto assets, which could trigger a short squeeze (Days to Cover is a low 1.94, however). Prudent risk management dictates reducing long exposure or establishing hedges.