COIN 2026-01-22
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for COIN as of 2026-01-22
Most recent EPS (Actual): 1.50
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 1.18
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): -0.01 - 5.14
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.71
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 3 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-05
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-12
Valuation Data Summary for COIN as of 2026-01-22
Current P/E for COIN: 28.89
1 year P/E range: 28.89 - 35.25
2 years P/E range: 28.89 - 915.37
5 years P/E range: -27.64 - 915.37
Management Sentiment Summary for COIN in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Vice President of Investor Relations | 0.33 |
| President and COO | 0.60 |
| Co-Founder and CEO | 0.68 |
| CFO | 0.59 |
Insider transactions for COIN in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | -9.4K | $250.04 | Sell | 145.4K |
| 2026-01-14 | -2.8K | $260.09 | Sell | 0 |
| 2026-01-05 | -41.4K | $248.99 | Sell | 19.5K |
| 2026-01-02 | -10K | $234.37 | Sell | 2.3M |
| 2025-12-22 | -40K | $250.15 | Sell | 64.6K |
| 2025-12-18 | -1.4K | $252.82 | Sell | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | -7.4K | $266.85 | Sell | 244K |
Technical Report
Price Range for COIN
COIN current price: $223.14
5-Day Range: $222.40 - $251.20
50-Day Range: $222.40 - $324.80
200-Day Range: $142.58 - $444.65
Price Distribution for COIN in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 233.23
Lowest price: 222.4
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 232.78
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 225.96
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 227.42
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 218.99
Technical Indicators Summary for COIN as of 2026-01-22
MACD values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | -6.68 | -6.62 | -0.06 |
| 2026-01-20 | -5.89 | -6.61 | 0.72 |
| 2026-01-16 | -4.87 | -6.79 | 1.91 |
| 2026-01-15 | -4.87 | -7.26 | 2.39 |
| 2026-01-14 | -4.61 | -7.86 | 3.25 |
| 2026-01-13 | -5.90 | -8.67 | 2.77 |
| 2026-01-12 | -7.14 | -9.37 | 2.23 |
| 2026-01-09 | -7.62 | -9.93 | 2.31 |
| 2026-01-08 | -7.90 | -10.50 | 2.60 |
| 2026-01-07 | -8.64 | -11.15 | 2.52 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | 260.96 |
| 2026-01-20 | 262.35 |
| 2026-01-16 | 263.76 |
| 2026-01-15 | 264.69 |
| 2026-01-14 | 265.72 |
| 2026-01-13 | 266.13 |
| 2026-01-12 | 266.67 |
| 2026-01-09 | 267.64 |
| 2026-01-08 | 268.74 |
| 2026-01-07 | 269.68 |
EMA values for COIN with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | 280.84 |
| 2026-01-20 | 281.38 |
| 2026-01-16 | 281.92 |
| 2026-01-15 | 282.33 |
| 2026-01-14 | 282.76 |
| 2026-01-13 | 283.03 |
| 2026-01-12 | 283.34 |
| 2026-01-09 | 283.74 |
| 2026-01-08 | 284.17 |
| 2026-01-07 | 284.56 |
RSI values for COIN in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | 37.88 |
| 2026-01-20 | 38.22 |
| 2026-01-16 | 44.41 |
| 2026-01-15 | 43.22 |
| 2026-01-14 | 52.48 |
| 2026-01-13 | 50.60 |
| 2026-01-12 | 44.34 |
| 2026-01-09 | 42.82 |
| 2026-01-08 | 45.34 |
| 2026-01-07 | 45.51 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for COIN over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 39.61
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 225.64 | 0.66 | 39.61 |
| 2026-01-21 | 226.93 | 0.64 | 39.16 |
| 2026-01-20 | 229.53 | 0.63 | 38.69 |
| 2026-01-16 | 240.16 | 1.08 | 52.03 |
| 2026-01-15 | 242.64 | 1.54 | 60.58 |
| 2026-01-14 | 257.31 | 1.83 | 64.62 |
| 2026-01-13 | 250.95 | 1.24 | 55.32 |
| 2026-01-12 | 243.01 | 0.84 | 45.62 |
| 2026-01-09 | 241.61 | 0.61 | 38.07 |
| 2026-01-08 | 246.07 | 0.67 | 40.27 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for COIN, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 223.14
Latest SMA: 239.73
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 220.49
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 258.96
ADX for COIN, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 4.98
Volume and volume ratio for COIN:
Last 30 days average volume: 8.1M
Today's volume: 7.1M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.87
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 240.3
Support levels for COIN (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 222.4 on 2026-01-21 (UTC)
Last High: 444.64 on 2025-07-18 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 373.36, 38.2%: 329.26, 50.0%: 293.61, 61.8%: 257.97, 78.6%: 207.22
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for COIN in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 17.3M | 6.9M | 2.51 |
| 2025-12-15 | 16M | 8.3M | 1.94 |
| 2025-11-28 | 16.7M | 11.5M | 1.45 |
| 2025-11-14 | 15.6M | 9.8M | 1.59 |
| 2025-10-31 | 13.4M | 9.1M | 1.48 |
| 2025-10-15 | 13M | 10.4M | 1.26 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.4M | 9.3M | 1.44 |
| 2025-09-15 | 13.8M | 7.8M | 1.76 |
| 2025-08-29 | 11.9M | 8.1M | 1.47 |
| 2025-08-15 | 12.5M | 14.3M | 1.00 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-20:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0.57 | -0.42 | 0.01 | -0.23 | 0.25 | 12.50 | 11.80 |
| 215 | 0.58 | -0.37 | 0.01 | -0.23 | 0.24 | 10.25 | 9.80 |
| 210 | 0.58 | -0.31 | 0.01 | -0.22 | 0.22 | 8.35 | 7.75 |
| 205 | 0.59 | -0.27 | 0.01 | -0.20 | 0.21 | 7.00 | 6.10 |
| 200 | 0.59 | -0.22 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.19 | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| 195 | 0.59 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.16 | 0.16 | 4.15 | 3.60 |
| 190 | 0.60 | -0.14 | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.14 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| 185 | 0.61 | -0.11 | 0.01 | -0.13 | 0.12 | 2.49 | 2.19 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220 | 0.51 | -0.41 | 0.02 | -0.29 | 0.18 | 7.60 | 7.05 |
| 215 | 0.52 | -0.33 | 0.02 | -0.27 | 0.16 | 5.55 | 5.10 |
| 210 | 0.51 | -0.25 | 0.01 | -0.24 | 0.14 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| 205 | 0.53 | -0.19 | 0.01 | -0.21 | 0.12 | 2.77 | 2.37 |
| 200 | 0.54 | -0.14 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.10 | 1.93 | 1.63 |
| 195 | 0.55 | -0.10 | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.08 | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| 190 | 0.57 | -0.07 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.06 | 0.93 | 0.71 |
| 185 | 0.59 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.09 | 0.05 | 0.75 | 0.36 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with tactical Sell bias for short-term traders)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Mixed fundamentals. Recent EPS ($1.50) beat consensus ($1.18), but the 8-quarter historical average EPS (1.71) is higher, suggesting earnings momentum may have peaked. Management sentiment in the last earnings call was cautiously optimistic (CEO score 0.68). Most concerning is consistent and significant insider selling over the past 90 days (~$112K net sold), often a bearish signal. Valuation at a P/E of 28.89 is within its 1-year range but high for a company with volatile earnings in a cyclical industry.
-
Technical: Strong bearish trend. Price ($223.14) is below all key EMAs (50-day: ~$261, 200-day: ~$281) and near the bottom of its 200-day range. MACD is negative and histogram is weakening after a brief uptick. RSI (37.88) and MFI (39.61) are approaching oversold territory but not extreme. The stock just broke below the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~$258) and the 200-day range's 78.6% level (~$207) is the next major support. Volume is slightly below average (ratio 0.87), showing no capitulation. The ADX is very low (4.98), indicating a lack of trend strength, but the directional move is clearly down.
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is net positive, highlighting successful diversification, strong institutional growth, and product expansion (Base network, prediction markets). However, the stock is not reacting to this news, suggesting it is being driven by broader market/technical forces. The macro backdrop is late-cycle with high overall equity valuations (Buffett Indicator 223.5%), increasing general market risk. COIN, as a high-beta, growth-oriented crypto stock, is particularly vulnerable to a risk-off shift.
-
Option Chain: Put options show moderately high implied volatility (IV 51-61% for nearby puts), indicating elevated fear and cost of downside protection. The put skew (higher IV for lower strikes) is present but not extreme. The open interest and pricing suggest the market sees meaningful risk of a move below $210-$215 in the near term. The high theta decay makes long puts expensive for hedging.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Avoid new long entries. For tactical traders considering a short or put position, current levels ($223-$222.4) could be an entry, but only with confirmation of a breakdown below the recent low of $222.40. A safer bearish entry would be on any failed bounce back towards the 50-day EMA (~$260-265) or the broken Fibonacci support (~$258).
-
Profit Targets / Stop-Loss:
- For a short position: Initial target at the 78.6% Fibonacci level ~$207. Secondary target at the 200-day low of ~$142.58 (long-term). A stop-loss should be placed just above $235 (recent minor resistance and above the 5-day high).
- For long holders: Consider reducing exposure. If holding, a stop-loss below $220 (just under the Bollinger Lower Band and recent low) is prudent.
-
Time Horizon: Short-to-medium term (2-8 weeks) for a tactical bearish play, awaiting the next earnings catalyst on 2026-02-12. The current technical damage suggests any sustained recovery will take time.
Final Notes: The combination of a broken long-term technical structure, persistent insider selling, and a high-risk macro environment outweighs the positive fundamental developments in the news. The stock is showing weakness regardless of good company-specific news. The path of least resistance is down towards stronger historical support levels. A "Neutral" rating is given because the stock is nearing oversold levels, which could prompt a sharp but likely temporary bounce. However, the risk/reward for new buyers is poor, and the trend strongly favors sellers or those staying on the sidelines.