COST 2025-12-15
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for COST as of 2025-12-15
Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.87
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 5.82
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-09-25
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-08-31
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 4.23
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 5.29
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 3.58
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-03-04
Valuation Data Summary for COST as of 2025-12-15
Current P/E for COST: 51.0
1 year P/E range: 51.0 - 58.51
2 years P/E range: 39.29 - 58.51
5 years P/E range: 31.44 - 58.51
Management Sentiment Summary for COST in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.30 |
| COO | 0.47 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
On 2025-11-12, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COST.
Total of 2.4K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $930.13 and $930.13.
The insiders have 2K shares left in the company.
On 2025-10-24, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at COST.
Total of 1.2K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $934.6204 and $934.6204.
The insiders have 5.2K shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for COST
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 887.17
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 851.4
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 881.32
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 871.09
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 872.06
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 856.12
Price Range for COST
COST current price: $860.56
5-Day Range: $851.40 - $889.58
50-Day Range: $851.40 - $962.64
200-Day Range: $851.40 - $1064.10
Technical Indicators Summary for COST as of 2025-12-15
MACD values for COST in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | -1.64 | -9.29 | -7.65 |
| 2025-12-11 | -1.87 | -9.11 | -7.24 |
| 2025-12-10 | -1.98 | -8.75 | -6.78 |
| 2025-12-09 | -0.86 | -7.14 | -6.28 |
| 2025-12-08 | -0.34 | -6.41 | -6.07 |
| 2025-12-05 | 0.69 | -5.29 | -5.98 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1.65 | -4.51 | -6.15 |
| 2025-12-03 | 3.00 | -3.56 | -6.56 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2.32 | -5.00 | -7.31 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.16 | -6.73 | -7.89 |
EMA values for COST with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 914.31 |
| 2025-12-11 | 915.53 |
| 2025-12-10 | 916.80 |
| 2025-12-09 | 918.53 |
| 2025-12-08 | 919.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 921.07 |
| 2025-12-04 | 922.15 |
| 2025-12-03 | 923.22 |
| 2025-12-02 | 923.26 |
| 2025-12-01 | 923.31 |
EMA values for COST with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 938.26 |
| 2025-12-11 | 938.80 |
| 2025-12-10 | 939.34 |
| 2025-12-09 | 940.00 |
| 2025-12-08 | 940.51 |
| 2025-12-05 | 941.05 |
| 2025-12-04 | 941.51 |
| 2025-12-03 | 941.97 |
| 2025-12-02 | 942.17 |
| 2025-12-01 | 942.37 |
RSI values for COST in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | 40.37 |
| 2025-12-11 | 40.37 |
| 2025-12-10 | 34.53 |
| 2025-12-09 | 39.54 |
| 2025-12-08 | 39.01 |
| 2025-12-05 | 41.69 |
| 2025-12-04 | 42.13 |
| 2025-12-03 | 54.11 |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.00 |
| 2025-12-01 | 49.25 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for COST over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 31.53
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | 31.53 | 0.46 | 866.48 |
| 2025-12-12 | 42.17 | 0.73 | 880.07 |
| 2025-12-11 | 53.09 | 1.13 | 881.01 |
| 2025-12-10 | 50.99 | 1.04 | 878.36 |
| 2025-12-09 | 63.94 | 1.77 | 886.32 |
| 2025-12-08 | 59.29 | 1.46 | 888.14 |
| 2025-12-05 | 69.80 | 2.31 | 897.86 |
| 2025-12-04 | 70.15 | 2.35 | 897.30 |
| 2025-12-03 | 71.20 | 2.47 | 921.53 |
| 2025-12-02 | 60.65 | 1.54 | 916.68 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for COST, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 860.56
Latest SMA: 895.98
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 864.78
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 927.17
ADX for COST, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 39.76
Volume and volume ratio for COST:
Last 30 days average volume: 2.7M
Today's volume: 4.8M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.76
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 896.65
Support levels for COST (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 851.4 on 2025-12-15 (UTC)
Last High: 887.49 on 2025-12-15 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 878.97, 38.2%: 873.7, 50.0%: 869.44, 61.8%: 865.19, 78.6%: 859.12
Resonance Supports: 38.2%: 873.7, 50.0%: 869.44, 61.8%: 865.19, 78.6%: 859.12
Short interest data for COST in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 2.6M | 2.94 | 7.7M |
| 2025-11-14 | 2.5M | 2.92 | 7.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 2.1M | 3.24 | 6.9M |
| 2025-10-15 | 2.5M | 2.79 | 6.9M |
| 2025-09-30 | 3M | 2.22 | 6.7M |
| 2025-09-15 | 1.7M | 3.74 | 6.5M |
| 2025-08-29 | 2.3M | 2.93 | 6.8M |
| 2025-08-15 | 2.2M | 2.69 | 5.9M |
| 2025-07-31 | 2.1M | 2.63 | 5.6M |
| 2025-07-15 | 2M | 2.47 | 4.9M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
COST 850 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.1881, delta: -0.3909, gamma: 0.008, theta: -0.2512, vega: 0.9766 ask price: 14.1, bid price: 13.15
COST 840 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.1918, delta: -0.3153, gamma: 0.0073, theta: -0.2421, vega: 0.9039 ask price: 10.75, bid price: 9.75
COST 830 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.195, delta: -0.2477, gamma: 0.0064, theta: -0.2224, vega: 0.8044 ask price: 7.85, bid price: 7.2
COST 820 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.1997, delta: -0.1917, gamma: 0.0054, theta: -0.1991, vega: 0.694 ask price: 5.75, bid price: 5.3
COST 810 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2066, delta: -0.1479, gamma: 0.0044, theta: -0.1762, vega: 0.5876 ask price: 4.45, bid price: 3.8
COST 800 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2119, delta: -0.1115, gamma: 0.0035, theta: -0.1498, vega: 0.483 ask price: 3.15, bid price: 2.83
COST 790 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2183, delta: -0.0838, gamma: 0.0028, theta: -0.126, vega: 0.3917 ask price: 2.4, bid price: 1.97
COST 780 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.2258, delta: -0.0634, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.1058, vega: 0.3164 ask price: 1.75, bid price: 1.5
Weekly options:
COST 850 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.179, delta: -0.3472, gamma: 0.0138, theta: -0.4167, vega: 0.5508 ask price: 6.55, bid price: 6.1
COST 840 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.186, delta: -0.228, gamma: 0.0109, theta: -0.3604, vega: 0.4506 ask price: 3.9, bid price: 3.55
COST 830 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.195, delta: -0.1431, gamma: 0.0078, theta: -0.2859, vega: 0.337 ask price: 2.25, bid price: 2.08
COST 820 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.2058, delta: -0.0883, gamma: 0.0052, theta: -0.2154, vega: 0.2387 ask price: 1.42, bid price: 1.12
COST 810 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.2197, delta: -0.0559, gamma: 0.0034, theta: -0.1627, vega: 0.1679 ask price: 0.93, bid price: 0.65
COST 800 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.2332, delta: -0.0354, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.1201, vega: 0.1163 ask price: 0.89, bid price: 0.1
COST 790 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.2634, delta: -0.0301, gamma: 0.0017, theta: -0.119, vega: 0.1017 ask price: 0.68, bid price: 0.25
COST 780 put expires on 2025-12-26
iv: 0.2653, delta: -0.016, gamma: 0.001, theta: -0.0706, vega: 0.0598 ask price: 0.28, bid price: 0.18
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral
Reasoning:
-
Financial:
- Strengths: COST’s most recent EPS ($5.87) beat consensus ($5.82), and it has not missed estimates in the past 8 quarters. Historical EPS has grown from an average of $4.23 to a recent high of $5.87, reflecting strong operational performance.
- Risks: The current P/E of 51.0 is near the top of its 1-year range (51.0–58.51) and well above its 5-year range (31.44–58.51), indicating overvaluation. Management sentiment in the Q3 earnings call was neutral to slightly negative (CFO score 0.30, COO 0.47). Insider selling over the past 90 days (3.6K shares sold) suggests caution among executives.
-
Technical:
- Trend & Momentum: The stock is in a downtrend, trading at $860.56, below all key EMAs (50-day EMA ~$914, 200-day EMA ~$938). The MACD histogram is negative and declining, and RSI (40.37) is neutral but leaning toward oversold. The ADX (39.76) confirms a strong trend, but it is bearish.
- Support/Resistance: Immediate support lies at the recent low of $851.40, with Fibonacci levels at $859.12 (78.6%) and $865.19 (61.8%). Resistance is at the 50-day EMA (~$914) and the Bollinger upper band (~$927). Volume is elevated (volume ratio 1.76), indicating selling pressure.
- Money Flow: MFI (31.53) signals oversold conditions, but the price remains below the VWAP ($896.65), suggesting weak near-term momentum.
-
News:
- Positive: Recent articles highlight strong holiday sales, record earnings, and long-term growth prospects (e.g., expansion in Canada, high membership renewal rates).
- Negative: Concerns over high valuation (P/E ~49), slowing comp sales growth, and limited near-term catalysts for membership fee increases.
- Macro Context: The U.S. economy shows late-cycle characteristics with elevated inflation (CPI 324.4) and a restrictive Fed (rates at 3.9%). Consumer savings are low (4.7%), which could pressure discretionary spending. The Buffett Indicator (226.3%) signals overall market overvaluation, increasing systemic risk.
-
Option Chain:
- Put options show elevated implied volatility (IV ~19–26% for weekly and monthly puts), reflecting heightened downside risk perception. The 850-strike put (monthly) has a delta of -0.39, indicating moderate hedging demand. The skew toward higher IV for lower strikes (e.g., 780 put IV 26.5%) suggests traders are pricing in further downside.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $851–$865 (near the recent low of $851.40 and Fibonacci support at $859.12–$865.19). Avoid entering above $875 until bullish momentum confirms (e.g., break above 50-day EMA).
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term: $895–$915 (4–6% gain, targeting the 50-day EMA and VWAP resistance).
- Long-term: $950+ (requires a breakout above 200-day EMA and improved fundamentals).
- Time Horizon: 1–3 months, pending Q1 earnings on March 4, 2026, which could provide a catalyst.
Final Notes:
- COST is a high-quality company with strong fundamentals, but technicals and valuation suggest near-term downside risk. The stock is oversold (MFI < 35), but the bearish trend and high P/E warrant caution.
- A Neutral rating reflects a “wait-and-see” approach: wait for a deeper pullback to support ($851–$865) or a bullish reversal signal (e.g., MACD crossover, break above 50-day EMA) before considering a buy.
- Monitor macro indicators (CPI, Fed policy) and COST’s upcoming earnings for directional clarity.