DUOL 2026-01-13
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for DUOL as of 2026-01-13
Most recent EPS (Actual): 5.95
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 0.76
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-11-05
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.57
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.2618
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.06
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-02-27
Valuation Data Summary for DUOL as of 2026-01-13
Current P/E for DUOL: 38.09
1 year P/E range: 38.09 - 156.42
2 years P/E range: 38.09 - 667.21
5 years P/E range: -614.33 - 667.21
Management Sentiment Summary for DUOL in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| CFO | 0.39 |
| CEO | 0.52 |
Insider transactions for DUOL in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-19 | -10K | $172.74 | Sell | 32.5K |
| 2025-11-18 | -7K | $175.79 | Sell | 882.6K |
| 2025-11-17 | -8.1K | $177.95 | Sell | 310.9K |
Technical Report
Price Distribution for DUOL
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 176.62
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 161.3
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 176.88
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 169.63
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 171.52
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 164.84
Price Range for DUOL
DUOL current price: $161.74
5-Day Range: $161.30 - $191.81
50-Day Range: $161.30 - $279.98
200-Day Range: $161.30 - $544.93
Technical Indicators Summary for DUOL as of 2026-01-13
MACD values for DUOL in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | -6.73 | -7.62 | 0.89 |
| 2026-01-08 | -7.00 | -7.85 | 0.84 |
| 2026-01-07 | -6.97 | -8.06 | 1.09 |
| 2026-01-06 | -7.07 | -8.33 | 1.26 |
| 2026-01-05 | -7.36 | -8.64 | 1.28 |
| 2026-01-02 | -8.26 | -8.96 | 0.70 |
| 2025-12-31 | -8.41 | -9.14 | 0.72 |
| 2025-12-30 | -8.38 | -9.32 | 0.94 |
| 2025-12-29 | -8.38 | -9.55 | 1.17 |
| 2025-12-26 | -8.57 | -9.85 | 1.28 |
EMA values for DUOL with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 205.41 |
| 2026-01-08 | 206.58 |
| 2026-01-07 | 207.92 |
| 2026-01-06 | 209.21 |
| 2026-01-05 | 210.45 |
| 2026-01-02 | 211.48 |
| 2025-12-31 | 212.91 |
| 2025-12-30 | 214.43 |
| 2025-12-29 | 215.96 |
| 2025-12-26 | 217.42 |
EMA values for DUOL with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 284.13 |
| 2026-01-08 | 285.21 |
| 2026-01-07 | 286.33 |
| 2026-01-06 | 287.43 |
| 2026-01-05 | 288.52 |
| 2026-01-02 | 289.56 |
| 2025-12-31 | 290.70 |
| 2025-12-30 | 291.85 |
| 2025-12-29 | 293.01 |
| 2025-12-26 | 294.14 |
RSI values for DUOL in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 40.57 |
| 2026-01-08 | 37.45 |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.11 |
| 2026-01-06 | 40.94 |
| 2026-01-05 | 45.59 |
| 2026-01-02 | 36.19 |
| 2025-12-31 | 35.01 |
| 2025-12-30 | 36.05 |
| 2025-12-29 | 37.97 |
| 2025-12-26 | 38.92 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for DUOL over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 24.92
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 164.38 | 0.33 | 24.92 |
| 2026-01-09 | 175.86 | 0.56 | 35.93 |
| 2026-01-08 | 172.67 | 0.42 | 29.58 |
| 2026-01-07 | 176.38 | 0.42 | 29.79 |
| 2026-01-06 | 183.10 | 0.76 | 43.26 |
| 2026-01-05 | 187.02 | 1.35 | 57.52 |
| 2026-01-02 | 176.65 | 0.79 | 44.15 |
| 2025-12-31 | 176.19 | 0.79 | 44.26 |
| 2025-12-30 | 178.51 | 0.78 | 43.88 |
| 2025-12-29 | 180.31 | 0.72 | 41.71 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for DUOL, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 161.74
Latest SMA: 180.54
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 166.79
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 194.28
ADX for DUOL, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 27.28
Volume and volume ratio for DUOL:
Last 30 days average volume: 1.5M
Today's volume: 4.3M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 2.77
No VWAP data for DUOL.
Support levels for DUOL (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 161.3 on 2026-01-12 (UTC)
Last High: 170.1 on 2026-01-12 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 168.02, 38.2%: 166.74, 50.0%: 165.7, 61.8%: 164.66, 78.6%: 163.18
Resonance Supports: 50.0%: 165.7, 61.8%: 164.66, 78.6%: 163.18
Short interest data for DUOL in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 6.4M | 1.2M | 5.35 |
| 2025-12-15 | 5M | 1.6M | 3.10 |
| 2025-11-28 | 5.4M | 1.9M | 2.79 |
| 2025-11-14 | 5.4M | 3.5M | 1.54 |
| 2025-10-31 | 4.6M | 1.2M | 3.89 |
| 2025-10-15 | 3.9M | 1.2M | 3.11 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.8M | 1.7M | 2.21 |
| 2025-09-15 | 3.5M | 2.2M | 1.55 |
| 2025-08-29 | 3.3M | 1.7M | 1.91 |
| 2025-08-15 | 3M | 2.6M | 1.15 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-13:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0.61 | -0.36 | 0.01 | -0.17 | 0.18 | 8.40 | 7.60 |
| 150 | 0.59 | -0.29 | 0.01 | -0.15 | 0.16 | 6.10 | 5.30 |
| 145 | 0.58 | -0.22 | 0.01 | -0.13 | 0.14 | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| 140 | 0.59 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.12 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| 135 | 0.67 | -0.15 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 0.11 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
| 130 | 0.59 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.07 | 0.07 | 1.55 | 0.80 |
| 125 | 0.56 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| 120 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-01-23:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0.57 | -0.30 | 0.02 | -0.25 | 0.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 150 | 0.55 | -0.19 | 0.02 | -0.19 | 0.08 | 1.85 | 1.55 |
| 145 | 0.57 | -0.12 | 0.01 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| 140 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| 135 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| 130 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| 125 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| 120 | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
Final Report
Recommendation: Strong Sell
Reasoning:
-
Financial:
- Earnings & Valuation: The most recent EPS of $5.95 vastly exceeded consensus ($0.76), but this appears to be an outlier—historical average EPS is only $0.57. The current P/E of 38.09 is high relative to the 1‑year range (38.09–156.42), but the stock has collapsed from its 5‑year highs (P/E once >600). The extreme volatility in P/E suggests the market is struggling to price the company’s growth sustainability.
- Management Sentiment: The CFO’s sentiment score (0.39) is notably negative, while the CEO’s (0.52) is barely neutral. This divergence hints at internal concerns about future performance.
- Insider Activity: Consistent selling by insiders over the last 90 days (total net sales of ~25,100 shares) signals lack of confidence at current levels.
-
Technical:
- Price Action: The stock is at a 20‑day low ($161.74), well below all key moving averages (50‑day EMA ~$205, 200‑day EMA ~$284). It has broken below the Bollinger lower band ($166.79), indicating severe oversold conditions but also strong downward momentum.
- Momentum Indicators: MACD is deeply negative and below its signal line; RSI is near 40 (not yet oversold); Money Flow Index (MFI) is 24.92—extremely low, suggesting heavy selling pressure. Volume ratio of 2.77 today confirms aggressive distribution.
- Support Levels: The stock has sliced through all near‑term Fibonacci supports; the next meaningful support is the 200‑day low of $161.30, which is being tested now. A break below could trigger a washout.
- Short Interest: Days to cover have risen to 5.35 (as of Dec‑31), indicating increasing bearish bets and potential for a short squeeze if the stock rebounds, but the prevailing trend remains down.
-
News:
- Sentiment is mixed but leans negative. Several articles highlight the stock’s 30% post‑earnings drop (Nov‑5) due to weak bookings guidance and fears of AI competition. Positive articles focus on long‑term growth potential, but near‑term catalysts are lacking.
- Macro Context: The broader market (SPY) is at all‑time highs, but the Buffett Indicator (224%) signals extreme overvaluation. DUOL is dramatically underperforming the market, suggesting company‑specific issues outweigh any macro tailwinds.
-
Option Chain:
- Put options show elevated implied volatility (~60% for nearby strikes), reflecting high expected price swings. The high put open interest at strikes like $155 and $150 indicates traders are hedging or betting on further downside. Delta for the $155 put is -0.36, meaning options traders assign a meaningful probability of the stock staying below $155 by February expiration.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Not applicable—this is a Strong Sell recommendation. For existing holders, consider exiting on any bounce toward $170–$176 (the 25th percentile and moderate‑low z‑score zone).
- Profit Targets (for short positions):
- Short‑term downside target: $150 (next psychological support, near the 50‑day low).
- Longer‑term risk: A break below $161.30 could open a move toward $140–$135 (lower strikes in the option chain).
- Time Horizon: Weeks to months—the next earnings date (Feb‑27) could provide a catalyst for further downside if guidance remains weak.
Final Notes:
- DUOL is in a severe downtrend with deteriorating technicals, insider selling, and negative management sentiment. The stock is breaking below all near‑term supports while the broader market rallies, indicating profound weakness.
- A contrarian bounce is possible given the oversold MFI and high short interest, but the risk/reward favors selling into strength rather than buying the dip.
- Only consider a reversal if the stock reclaims the 50‑day EMA (~$205) on heavy volume—a scenario that appears unlikely given current momentum.