TSLA 2025-12-03
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for TSLA as of 2025-12-03
Most recent EPS (Actual): 0.39
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 0.44
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-22
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.52
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 6 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.73
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.12
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-27
Valuation Data Summary for TSLA as of 2025-12-03
Current P/E for TSLA: 282.3
1 year P/E range: 132.44 - 282.3
2 years P/E range: 64.39 - 282.3
5 years P/E range: 30.27 - 282.3
Management Sentiment Summary for TSLA in 2025Q3 earnings call The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Head of Investor Relations | 0.32 |
| CEO | 0.62 |
| CFO | 0.70 |
| Director of Self-Driving AI | 0.58 |
| VP of Energy Products | 0.80 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days On 2025-09-17, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at TSLA.
Total of 60K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $422.68 and $422.68.
The insiders have 637K shares left in the company.
On 2025-09-15, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at TSLA.
Total of 2.6M shares were purchased by insiders, traded at prices between $371.900 and $396.359.
The insiders have 10.3B shares left in the company.
On 2025-09-12, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at TSLA.
Total of 20K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $363.755 and $363.755.
The insiders have 47.6K shares left in the company.
On 2025-09-09, a Form 4 was filed by insiders at TSLA.
Total of 2.6K shares were sold by insiders, traded at prices between $352.384 and $352.384.
The insiders have 9.9K shares left in the company.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for TSLA
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 404.26
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 382.78
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 405.95
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 393.71
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 394.78
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 375.58
Price Range for TSLA
TSLA current price: $429.24
5-Day Range: $405.95 - $436.80
50-Day Range: $382.78 - $474.07
200-Day Range: $214.25 - $474.07
Technical Indicators Summary for TSLA as of 2025-12-03
MACD values for TSLA in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 2.02 | -2.58 | -4.61 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.56 | -3.55 | -5.11 |
| 2025-11-28 | 0.68 | -4.82 | -5.50 |
| 2025-11-26 | -0.71 | -6.38 | -5.67 |
| 2025-11-25 | -2.42 | -7.92 | -5.49 |
| 2025-11-24 | -4.14 | -9.03 | -4.89 |
| 2025-11-21 | -6.29 | -10.15 | -3.85 |
| 2025-11-20 | -6.43 | -8.71 | -2.28 |
| 2025-11-19 | -6.50 | -7.17 | -0.67 |
| 2025-11-18 | -6.95 | -6.00 | 0.96 |
EMA values for TSLA with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 419.04 |
| 2025-12-01 | 418.62 |
| 2025-11-28 | 418.15 |
| 2025-11-26 | 417.66 |
| 2025-11-25 | 417.30 |
| 2025-11-24 | 417.21 |
| 2025-11-21 | 417.19 |
| 2025-11-20 | 418.26 |
| 2025-11-19 | 419.20 |
| 2025-11-18 | 419.82 |
EMA values for TSLA with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 363.48 |
| 2025-12-01 | 362.82 |
| 2025-11-28 | 362.14 |
| 2025-11-26 | 361.46 |
| 2025-11-25 | 360.81 |
| 2025-11-24 | 360.22 |
| 2025-11-21 | 359.64 |
| 2025-11-20 | 359.32 |
| 2025-11-19 | 358.96 |
| 2025-11-18 | 358.51 |
RSI values for TSLA in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 52.08 |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.46 |
| 2025-11-28 | 52.47 |
| 2025-11-26 | 51.25 |
| 2025-11-25 | 48.81 |
| 2025-11-24 | 48.26 |
| 2025-11-21 | 38.23 |
| 2025-11-20 | 39.33 |
| 2025-11-19 | 41.68 |
| 2025-11-18 | 40.65 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for TSLA over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 59.77
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 59.77 | 1.49 | 429.39 |
| 2025-12-01 | 70.41 | 2.38 | 429.70 |
| 2025-11-28 | 66.82 | 2.01 | 429.77 |
| 2025-11-26 | 56.85 | 1.32 | 423.47 |
| 2025-11-25 | 49.91 | 1.00 | 415.28 |
| 2025-11-24 | 42.32 | 0.73 | 413.53 |
| 2025-11-21 | 41.35 | 0.71 | 392.55 |
| 2025-11-20 | 40.79 | 0.69 | 406.30 |
| 2025-11-19 | 28.10 | 0.39 | 404.76 |
| 2025-11-18 | 29.95 | 0.43 | 401.29 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for TSLA, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 429.24
Latest SMA: 422.87
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 383.99
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 461.74
ADX for TSLA, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 0.54
Volume and volume ratio for TSLA:
Last 30 days average volume: 84.2M
Today's volume: 69.3M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.82
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 425.34
Support levels for TSLA (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 273.21 on 2025-06-05 (UTC)
Last High: 474.07 on 2025-11-03 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 412.75, 38.2%: 374.82, 50.0%: 344.16, 61.8%: 313.5, 78.6%: 269.85
Resonance Supports: 78.6%: 269.85
Short interest data for TSLA in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 88.1M | 1.00 | 71.2M |
| 2025-10-31 | 83M | 1.00 | 72.2M |
| 2025-10-15 | 93.5M | 1.00 | 72.7M |
| 2025-09-30 | 92.4M | 1.00 | 76.8M |
| 2025-09-15 | 95.1M | 1.00 | 86.2M |
| 2025-08-29 | 73.5M | 1.06 | 78.3M |
| 2025-08-15 | 78.5M | 1.00 | 76.7M |
| 2025-07-31 | 98.4M | 1.00 | 72M |
| 2025-07-15 | 96.8M | 1.00 | 70M |
| 2025-06-30 | 104.3M | 1.00 | 80.1M |
Option Chain
----Put Option Chain for TSLA---- Monthly options: TSLA 420 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.4631, delta: -0.3946, gamma: 0.0067, theta: -0.3466, vega: 0.4745 ask price: 17.35, bid price: 17.15
TSLA 410 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.4665, delta: -0.3276, gamma: 0.0063, theta: -0.3298, vega: 0.4451 ask price: 13.4, bid price: 13.2
TSLA 400 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.4725, delta: -0.266, gamma: 0.0056, theta: -0.3055, vega: 0.4046 ask price: 10.2, bid price: 10.05
TSLA 390 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.4808, delta: -0.2118, gamma: 0.0049, theta: -0.2758, vega: 0.3571 ask price: 7.7, bid price: 7.55
TSLA 380 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.4921, delta: -0.1662, gamma: 0.0041, theta: -0.2441, vega: 0.3075 ask price: 5.8, bid price: 5.65
TSLA 370 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.506, delta: -0.1292, gamma: 0.0034, theta: -0.2127, vega: 0.2597 ask price: 4.35, bid price: 4.25
TSLA 360 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.5227, delta: -0.1, gamma: 0.0027, theta: -0.1835, vega: 0.2163 ask price: 3.3, bid price: 3.2
TSLA 350 put expires on 2026-01-02 iv: 0.5424, delta: -0.0775, gamma: 0.0022, theta: -0.158, vega: 0.179 ask price: 2.52, bid price: 2.46
Weekly options: TSLA 420 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4803, delta: -0.3815, gamma: 0.0088, theta: -0.4964, vega: 0.3432 ask price: 12.25, bid price: 12.15
TSLA 410 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4864, delta: -0.2961, gamma: 0.0079, theta: -0.4586, vega: 0.3112 ask price: 8.7, bid price: 8.6
TSLA 400 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4966, delta: -0.2224, gamma: 0.0067, theta: -0.4054, vega: 0.2682 ask price: 6.05, bid price: 6.0
TSLA 390 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.5103, delta: -0.1627, gamma: 0.0054, theta: -0.3452, vega: 0.2214 ask price: 4.2, bid price: 4.1
TSLA 380 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.5293, delta: -0.1177, gamma: 0.0041, theta: -0.2882, vega: 0.1777 ask price: 2.91, bid price: 2.86
TSLA 370 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.5529, delta: -0.0852, gamma: 0.0031, theta: -0.2383, vega: 0.1403 ask price: 2.06, bid price: 2.02
TSLA 360 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.5813, delta: -0.0624, gamma: 0.0023, theta: -0.1979, vega: 0.1106 ask price: 1.5, bid price: 1.47
TSLA 350 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.6161, delta: -0.0471, gamma: 0.0018, theta: -0.1681, vega: 0.0885 ask price: 1.15, bid price: 1.12
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral (with a cautious bias toward Sell for new positions)
Reasoning:
-
Financial: Concerning. TSLA's fundamentals are deteriorating. The company has missed earnings estimates in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the most recent EPS ($0.39) coming in below consensus ($0.44) and well below the historical average ($0.52). The current P/E ratio of 282.3 is at the absolute peak of its 1, 2, and 5-year ranges, indicating extreme valuation disconnected from slowing earnings growth. Management sentiment from the last earnings call was mixed, with the Head of Investor Relations notably negative (0.32). While there was a large insider purchase in September, it was accompanied by several smaller sales, creating a mixed signal.
-
Technical: Mixed to Weak. The stock price ($429.24) is trading above its 50-day EMA (~$419) and well above its 200-day EMA (~$363), suggesting a longer-term uptrend is still intact. However, momentum is waning. The MACD histogram, while recently turning positive, is coming off deeply negative levels, and the RSI (52.08) is neutral. The stock is trading near the top of its 5-day range and is approaching the upper Bollinger Band ($461.74), suggesting limited near-term upside. Volume is below the 30-day average, indicating a lack of conviction in the recent price move. Key support levels are at the 50-day EMA (~$419), the 23.6% Fibonacci level ($412.75), and the 200-day EMA (~$363).
-
News & Macro: Overwhelmingly Negative. News sentiment for TSLA is poor, with 5 out of the last 10 analyzed articles being negative, citing concerns over brand erosion, intense competition (especially from Chinese EV makers), declining margins, and a valuation disconnect fueled by AI hype. The macroeconomic backdrop is in a late-cycle expansion with high market valuations (Buffett Indicator at 223.3%), sticky inflation, and a consumer showing signs of exhaustion (low savings rate). This environment is unfavorable for highly valued, growth-dependent stocks like TSLA.
-
Option Chain: Implies Caution. The put option chain shows elevated implied volatility (IV), especially for out-of-the-money puts, which is typical but also reflects market anxiety. The high delta values for at-the-money puts (e.g., -0.39 for the $420 put) indicate options markets are pricing in a reasonable probability of the stock moving lower by the January expiration. The term structure (higher IV for weekly vs. monthly options) suggests heightened near-term uncertainty.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Avoid new long entries at current levels. For investors determined to establish a position, an ideal, lower-risk entry zone would be on a pullback to $410 - $419 (near the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the 50-day EMA). A more conservative entry would be near the 200-day EMA around $363, but this represents a significant decline from current prices.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (Trade): Not recommended for long positions given the risk/reward. If already long, consider taking profits on any move toward $460 - $474 (upper Bollinger Band and recent high).
- Long-term (Hold): Unclear. Dependent on successful execution in AI/robotaxis and energy segments, which carry significant risk.
- Time Horizon: Short-term (Weeks) for any trading activity, awaiting the next earnings report on 2026-01-27 for fundamental clarity. The long-term investment thesis is under severe pressure.
Final Notes: TSLA presents a classic case of a "story stock" where narrative (AI, autonomy) has massively diverged from current financial reality (slowing auto growth, falling margins). The extreme P/E valuation leaves no room for error. The combination of weak fundamentals, negative news sentiment, a challenging macro environment, and stretched technicals creates a high-risk profile. Existing holders should consider tightening stop-losses or taking partial profits. New investors should wait for a better entry point at a significantly lower price that offers a margin of safety, or for clear fundamental improvement. The risk of a sharp de-rating is elevated.