TSLA 2026-01-21
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for TSLA as of 2026-01-21
Most recent EPS (Actual): 0.39
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 0.44
Historical EPS range (last 8 quarters): 0.12 - 0.73
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 0.52
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 6 times.
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-22
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-04-20
Valuation Data Summary for TSLA as of 2026-01-21
Current P/E for TSLA: 282.3
1 year P/E range: 132.44 - 282.3
2 years P/E range: 64.39 - 282.3
5 years P/E range: 30.27 - 282.3
Management Sentiment Summary for TSLA in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| VP of Energy Products | 0.80 |
| Head of Investor Relations | 0.32 |
| Director of Self-Driving AI | 0.58 |
| CFO | 0.70 |
| CEO | 0.62 |
Insider transactions for TSLA in the last 90 days:
Total Amount Traded is negative for total net sale of shares. Positive for total net purchase of shares.
| Date | Total Amount Traded | Avg. Traded Price | Transaction Type | Remaining Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | -60K | $445.4 | Sell | 13.2M |
| 2025-12-09 | -56.8K | $450.66 | Sell | 1.4M |
| 2025-12-08 | -2.6K | $443.93 | Sell | 13.8K |
Technical Report
Price Range for TSLA
TSLA current price: $419.25
5-Day Range: $417.44 - $451.81
50-Day Range: $382.78 - $498.83
200-Day Range: $214.25 - $498.83
Price Distribution for TSLA in the past 20 days
25th percentile: 437.93
Lowest price: 417.44
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score: 437.65
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score: 424.37
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 427.10
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 406.36
Technical Indicators Summary for TSLA as of 2026-01-21
MACD values for TSLA in the past 14 days:
| Date | macd | signal | histogram |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | -3.50 | -0.96 | -2.54 |
| 2026-01-15 | -3.06 | -0.32 | -2.74 |
| 2026-01-14 | -2.57 | 0.36 | -2.93 |
| 2026-01-13 | -1.97 | 1.10 | -3.06 |
| 2026-01-12 | -1.98 | 1.86 | -3.85 |
| 2026-01-09 | -2.16 | 2.82 | -4.98 |
| 2026-01-08 | -1.95 | 4.07 | -6.01 |
| 2026-01-07 | -0.71 | 5.57 | -6.28 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1.33 | 7.14 | -5.81 |
| 2026-01-05 | 3.75 | 8.59 | -4.85 |
EMA values for TSLA with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 443.43 |
| 2026-01-15 | 443.68 |
| 2026-01-14 | 443.88 |
| 2026-01-13 | 444.08 |
| 2026-01-12 | 443.95 |
| 2026-01-09 | 443.74 |
| 2026-01-08 | 443.69 |
| 2026-01-07 | 444.01 |
| 2026-01-06 | 444.53 |
| 2026-01-05 | 445.00 |
EMA values for TSLA with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 387.83 |
| 2026-01-15 | 387.33 |
| 2026-01-14 | 386.82 |
| 2026-01-13 | 386.29 |
| 2026-01-12 | 385.68 |
| 2026-01-09 | 385.04 |
| 2026-01-08 | 384.44 |
| 2026-01-07 | 383.92 |
| 2026-01-06 | 383.45 |
| 2026-01-05 | 382.95 |
RSI values for TSLA in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | 44.19 |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.66 |
| 2026-01-14 | 44.92 |
| 2026-01-13 | 48.27 |
| 2026-01-12 | 49.02 |
| 2026-01-09 | 47.32 |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.23 |
| 2026-01-07 | 41.20 |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.69 |
| 2026-01-05 | 48.05 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for TSLA over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 38.06
| Date | Typical Price | Money Flow Ratio | MFI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | 422.47 | 0.61 | 38.06 |
| 2026-01-16 | 440.00 | 0.95 | 48.65 |
| 2026-01-15 | 440.53 | 0.88 | 46.70 |
| 2026-01-14 | 439.11 | 0.64 | 39.04 |
| 2026-01-13 | 447.65 | 0.63 | 38.78 |
| 2026-01-12 | 447.09 | 0.42 | 29.77 |
| 2026-01-09 | 441.48 | 0.26 | 20.39 |
| 2026-01-08 | 432.35 | 0.12 | 10.69 |
| 2026-01-07 | 433.69 | 0.12 | 10.56 |
| 2026-01-06 | 436.66 | 0.31 | 23.90 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for TSLA, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 419.25
Latest SMA: 452.27
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 411.23
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 493.31
ADX for TSLA, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 58.11
Volume and volume ratio for TSLA:
Last 30 days average volume: 70.7M
Today's volume: 63.2M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.89
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 452.68
Support levels for TSLA (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 288.77 on 2025-07-07 (UTC)
Last High: 498.83 on 2025-12-22 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 431.67, 38.2%: 390.12, 50.0%: 356.54, 61.8%: 322.96, 78.6%: 275.15
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for TSLA in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Short Interest | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 67.9M | 74.9M | 1.00 |
| 2025-12-15 | 74.7M | 72.2M | 1.03 |
| 2025-11-28 | 78.3M | 81M | 1.00 |
| 2025-11-14 | 71.2M | 88.1M | 1.00 |
| 2025-10-31 | 72.2M | 83M | 1.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 72.7M | 93.5M | 1.00 |
| 2025-09-30 | 76.8M | 92.4M | 1.00 |
| 2025-09-15 | 86.2M | 95.1M | 1.00 |
| 2025-08-29 | 78.3M | 73.5M | 1.06 |
| 2025-08-15 | 76.7M | 78.5M | 1.00 |
Option Chain
Monthly put options that expire on 2026-02-20:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.49 | -0.40 | 0.01 | -0.36 | 0.47 | 18.55 | 18.35 |
| 400 | 0.50 | -0.33 | 0.01 | -0.34 | 0.44 | 14.50 | 14.35 |
| 390 | 0.50 | -0.27 | 0.01 | -0.32 | 0.41 | 11.20 | 11.05 |
| 380 | 0.51 | -0.22 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.36 | 8.50 | 8.40 |
| 370 | 0.52 | -0.17 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 0.31 | 6.40 | 6.30 |
| 360 | 0.53 | -0.14 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 0.27 | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| 350 | 0.54 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.22 | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| 340 | 0.55 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.18 | 2.62 | 2.57 |
Weekly put options that expire on 2026-02-06:
| Strike Price | IV | Delta | Gamma | Theta | Vega | Ask Price | Bid Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 | 0.53 | -0.39 | 0.01 | -0.52 | 0.35 | 14.05 | 13.85 |
| 400 | 0.53 | -0.31 | 0.01 | -0.49 | 0.32 | 10.30 | 10.15 |
| 390 | 0.54 | -0.24 | 0.01 | -0.44 | 0.28 | 7.40 | 7.25 |
| 380 | 0.55 | -0.18 | 0.01 | -0.38 | 0.24 | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| 370 | 0.56 | -0.13 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.19 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| 360 | 0.58 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.26 | 0.15 | 2.47 | 2.42 |
| 350 | 0.60 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.12 | 1.69 | 1.65 |
| 340 | 0.62 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.09 | 1.16 | 1.13 |
Final Report
Recommendation: Neutral
Reasoning:
-
Financial: TSLA shows concerning financial health. The recent EPS of $0.39 missed consensus ($0.44), continuing a pattern of misses in 6 of the last 8 quarters. The current P/E of 282.3 is extremely elevated, even relative to its own 1-year range (132.44–282.3), indicating significant overvaluation unless explosive growth materializes. Management sentiment is mixed, but insider transactions show consistent net selling over the past 90 days, which can be a red flag for internal confidence.
-
Technical: The stock is in a short-term downtrend. The current price ($419.25) is below the 50-day EMA (~$443) and the 20-day SMA ($452.27), indicating bearish momentum. The MACD histogram is negative and deteriorating, RSI is neutral at ~44, and the Money Flow Index (38.06) signals selling pressure. Key support lies at the recent low ($417.44), the Bollinger Lower Band ($411.23), and the 200-day EMA (~$387). Resistance is at the 50-day EMA and recent highs near $450-498.
-
News & Macro: News sentiment is mixed but leans slightly positive on long-term AI/robotics potential. However, immediate headwinds include tariff threats sparking sell-offs and broader market rotation out of high-multiple stocks. Macroeconomic conditions suggest a late-cycle environment with high equity valuations (Buffett Indicator 220%), rising unemployment, and low consumer savings—a risk for discretionary sectors like EVs.
-
Option Chain: Implied volatilities for puts are elevated (~50-62%), reflecting expected near-term volatility and hedging demand. Put open interest is concentrated at strikes $400 and below, indicating the market sees potential downside to those levels. The high Theta values on weekly options suggest rapid time decay, making long option positions costly.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
-
Entry Price: Avoid buying at current levels. An ideal, lower-risk entry zone would be $387–$400, aligning with the 200-day EMA, psychological support, and a key Fibonacci level (38.2% at $390.12). A break below $411 (Bollinger Lower Band) could trigger a test of this zone.
-
Profit Targets:
- Short-term (weeks): $440–$450 (re-test of 50-day EMA and recent distribution zone).
- Long-term (months): $498 (all-time high) only if fundamental catalysts (e.g., earnings beat, FSD breakthroughs) emerge.
-
Time Horizon: Short-to-medium term (weeks to months), pending the Q1 2026 earnings report on April 20. Any position should be tactical, as the stock is in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend.
Final Notes: TSLA is a high-risk, high-volatility stock. The current technical breakdown, premium valuation, and insider selling advise caution. While long-term disruptive potential remains (AI, energy storage), near-term risks outweigh rewards. Investors should wait for a deeper pullback to stronger support levels or a confirmed reversal (e.g., break above $450 with strong volume) before considering new long positions. Existing holders could consider hedging with puts or tightening stop-losses below $410.