TSM 2025-12-03
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-03
Most recent EPS (Actual): 2.92
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 2.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-16
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.8
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.47
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.29
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-14
Valuation Data Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-03
Current P/E for TSM: 28.02
1 year P/E range: 21.1 - 28.16
2 years P/E range: 19.55 - 30.5
5 years P/E range: 10.73 - 30.5
Management Sentiment Summary for TSM in 2025Q3 earnings call The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment.
The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment.
0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.23 |
| CFO | 0.58 |
| Chairman and CEO | 0.57 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days No Form 4 has been filed.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for TSM
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 282.33
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 266.82
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 279.8
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 273.23
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 273.96
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 265.90
Price Range for TSM
TSM current price: $292.09
5-Day Range: $273.08 - $294.50
50-Day Range: $266.82 - $311.37
200-Day Range: $133.34 - $311.37
Technical Indicators Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-03
MACD values for TSM in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 0.68 | -0.45 | -1.14 |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.31 | -0.99 | -1.31 |
| 2025-11-28 | 0.17 | -1.22 | -1.39 |
| 2025-11-26 | -0.45 | -1.87 | -1.43 |
| 2025-11-25 | -1.21 | -2.53 | -1.32 |
| 2025-11-24 | -1.78 | -2.79 | -1.01 |
| 2025-11-21 | -2.51 | -3.08 | -0.57 |
| 2025-11-20 | -2.49 | -2.43 | 0.06 |
| 2025-11-19 | -2.50 | -1.81 | 0.68 |
| 2025-11-18 | -2.80 | -1.49 | 1.31 |
EMA values for TSM with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 283.17 |
| 2025-12-01 | 282.80 |
| 2025-11-28 | 282.60 |
| 2025-11-26 | 282.24 |
| 2025-11-25 | 281.93 |
| 2025-11-24 | 281.81 |
| 2025-11-21 | 281.70 |
| 2025-11-20 | 281.97 |
| 2025-11-19 | 282.15 |
| 2025-11-18 | 282.14 |
EMA values for TSM with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 241.61 |
| 2025-12-01 | 241.11 |
| 2025-11-28 | 240.64 |
| 2025-11-26 | 240.13 |
| 2025-11-25 | 239.62 |
| 2025-11-24 | 239.17 |
| 2025-11-21 | 238.72 |
| 2025-11-20 | 238.35 |
| 2025-11-19 | 237.96 |
| 2025-11-18 | 237.51 |
RSI values for TSM in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 54.00 |
| 2025-12-01 | 50.37 |
| 2025-11-28 | 53.80 |
| 2025-11-26 | 52.59 |
| 2025-11-25 | 48.30 |
| 2025-11-24 | 48.26 |
| 2025-11-21 | 39.73 |
| 2025-11-20 | 41.34 |
| 2025-11-19 | 44.71 |
| 2025-11-18 | 40.60 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for TSM over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 67.75
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | 67.75 | 2.10 | 291.92 |
| 2025-12-01 | 67.52 | 2.08 | 287.34 |
| 2025-11-28 | 65.59 | 1.91 | 291.06 |
| 2025-11-26 | 57.32 | 1.34 | 290.17 |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.51 | 1.30 | 281.05 |
| 2025-11-24 | 47.44 | 0.90 | 280.96 |
| 2025-11-21 | 46.54 | 0.87 | 273.52 |
| 2025-11-20 | 48.24 | 0.93 | 282.25 |
| 2025-11-19 | 36.43 | 0.57 | 281.08 |
| 2025-11-18 | 26.99 | 0.37 | 276.94 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for TSM, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 292.09
Latest SMA: 286.65
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 274.94
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 298.36
ADX for TSM, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 12.63
Volume and volume ratio for TSM:
Last 30 days average volume: 12.3M
Today's volume: 10.7M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 0.87
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 287.32
Support levels for TSM (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 188.81 on 2025-05-19 (UTC)
Last High: 311.37 on 2025-10-16 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 269.57, 38.2%: 243.71, 50.0%: 222.81, 61.8%: 201.91, 78.6%: 172.15
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for TSM in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 12.2M | 2.84 | 34.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 14.3M | 2.34 | 33.6M |
| 2025-10-15 | 15.3M | 2.23 | 34.1M |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.5M | 2.58 | 32.3M |
| 2025-09-15 | 11.3M | 2.38 | 27M |
| 2025-08-29 | 10.7M | 2.32 | 24.9M |
| 2025-08-15 | 10.2M | 2.50 | 25.5M |
| 2025-07-31 | 12.9M | 2.18 | 28.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 10.9M | 2.48 | 27M |
| 2025-06-30 | 10.5M | 2.60 | 27.3M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
TSM 290 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3603, delta: -0.4246, gamma: 0.0129, theta: -0.1836, vega: 0.3294 ask price: 10.5, bid price: 9.55
TSM 285 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3668, delta: -0.3617, gamma: 0.0122, theta: -0.1806, vega: 0.315 ask price: 8.7, bid price: 7.45
TSM 280 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3614, delta: -0.2986, gamma: 0.0114, theta: -0.1658, vega: 0.2917 ask price: 6.4, bid price: 5.75
TSM 275 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3612, delta: -0.2411, gamma: 0.0103, theta: -0.1498, vega: 0.262 ask price: 4.75, bid price: 4.35
TSM 270 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3634, delta: -0.1907, gamma: 0.0089, theta: -0.1323, vega: 0.2287 ask price: 3.5, bid price: 3.25
TSM 265 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3685, delta: -0.1488, gamma: 0.0075, theta: -0.1149, vega: 0.195 ask price: 2.65, bid price: 2.35
TSM 260 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3775, delta: -0.116, gamma: 0.0062, theta: -0.0995, vega: 0.1642 ask price: 1.97, bid price: 1.8
TSM 255 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3812, delta: -0.0865, gamma: 0.0049, theta: -0.0814, vega: 0.1326 ask price: 1.52, bid price: 1.15
Weekly options:
TSM 290 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.3927, delta: -0.4218, gamma: 0.0162, theta: -0.2808, vega: 0.2402 ask price: 8.0, bid price: 7.6
TSM 285 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.3943, delta: -0.3418, gamma: 0.0152, theta: -0.2665, vega: 0.2254 ask price: 6.05, bid price: 5.5
TSM 280 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.3962, delta: -0.2678, gamma: 0.0135, theta: -0.2415, vega: 0.2022 ask price: 4.3, bid price: 4.0
TSM 275 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.3964, delta: -0.2015, gamma: 0.0116, theta: -0.2073, vega: 0.1727 ask price: 3.1, bid price: 2.61
TSM 270 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4083, delta: -0.1518, gamma: 0.0094, theta: -0.1792, vega: 0.1443 ask price: 2.14, bid price: 1.97
TSM 265 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4186, delta: -0.1114, gamma: 0.0074, theta: -0.1488, vega: 0.1165 ask price: 1.64, bid price: 1.24
TSM 260 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4308, delta: -0.081, gamma: 0.0057, theta: -0.1214, vega: 0.0922 ask price: 1.12, bid price: 0.9
TSM 255 put expires on 2025-12-19 iv: 0.4578, delta: -0.0638, gamma: 0.0044, theta: -0.1077, vega: 0.0767 ask price: 1.03, bid price: 0.59
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: TSM demonstrates robust financial health. The most recent EPS of $2.92 significantly beat consensus ($2.66), continuing a strong trend of zero earnings misses over the past eight quarters. The historical average EPS has risen to $1.80, indicating solid growth. The current P/E of 28.02 is at the high end of its 1-year range (21.1-28.16), suggesting the stock is fully valued but not excessively so relative to its recent history, especially given its earnings growth trajectory. Management sentiment from the Q3 call was neutral to slightly positive (CFO and CEO scores of 0.58 and 0.57). The lack of insider selling in the last 90 days is a positive signal.
-
Technical: The stock is in a strong long-term uptrend, trading well above its 200-day EMA (~$241.61). The current price of $292.09 is near the upper end of its 50-day range ($266.82-$311.37). Short-term momentum is improving: the MACD histogram has turned positive in the last two sessions, and the RSI at 54 is neutral, leaving room for further upside. The stock is trading above its 20-day SMA ($286.65) and near the top of its Bollinger Band ($298.36), indicating strength. Key support levels are at the 50-day EMA (~$283), the 25th percentile price ($282.33), and the recent low of $266.82. The Money Flow Index (MFI) of 67.75 shows healthy buying pressure. Short interest is stable with a low Days-to-Cover of ~2.8, reducing the risk of a short squeeze-driven decline.
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News & Macro: News sentiment is predominantly positive (6 positive vs. 3 negative articles), highlighting TSM's dominant position in AI chip manufacturing, expansion plans, and strong growth. The primary negative news involves a legal dispute over trade secrets, which poses a reputational risk but is not a fundamental business threat. Macro-economically, the environment is late-cycle with high market valuations (Buffett Indicator > 220%) and sticky inflation, which could pressure growth stock multiples. However, the steepening yield curve suggests receding recession fears, which is a tailwind for cyclical sectors like semiconductors. The SPY is in a holding pattern, suggesting sector and stock selection will be key.
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Option Chain: Implied volatility for near-term puts is elevated (39%-46% for weekly puts), indicating the market is pricing in significant near-term price movement, likely around upcoming events or earnings. The put option chain shows significant open interest and liquidity at strikes between $255 and $290, which can act as magnets for price action. The high IV also makes protective puts relatively expensive for buyers.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $283 - $288. This range aligns with the 50-day EMA, the 25th percentile price, and the price with a moderate low z-score, offering a better risk/reward entry than the current price near $292.
- Profit Targets:
- Short-term (1-3 months): $305 - $311 (4-8% gain), targeting a retest of the recent high and the upper Bollinger Band.
- Long-term (6-12+ months): Hold for growth, as TSM is a critical beneficiary of the AI and advanced computing megatrend. Re-evaluate after the Q4 earnings report on 2026-01-14.
- Stop-Loss: A close below $275 (just below the key $280 support and the -1.0 z-score level) would indicate a breakdown of the short-term uptrend and warrant an exit.
- Time Horizon: Medium-term (3-6 months), with a view to hold through the next earnings cycle, barring a macro or company-specific deterioration.
Final Notes: TSM is a high-quality company in a secular growth industry. The recommendation is a "Buy" on pullbacks, not a chase at current levels. The primary risks are: 1) a broader market correction due to extreme valuations, 2) a resolution of the legal issue that damages the company's reputation or results in penalties, and 3) a slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure. Use the elevated option IV to your advantage by considering selling cash-secured puts at your desired entry price (e.g., the $280 or $285 strike) to generate premium while waiting for a better entry.